[Politics] By-election in Honiton and Tiverton.

[Thunder Bolt]

Mid term by election, government will lose. It is ever thus.

Overturning a 20K majority in Shropshire into a 6K majority for the LD isn't just mid term blues. People are fed up with corruption, lying and blatant law breaking.

 

[Brian Fantana]

Overturning a 20K majority in Shropshire into a 6K majority for the LD isn't just mid term blues. People are fed up with corruption, lying and blatant law breaking.

This.

The results themselves aren’t the shock. You’d expect constituencies with small majorities to swing during mid-term by-elections. But not those with the scale of majority we have seen. The key aspect is how a resurgence in Lib Dem support will actually impact at the next GE. The underlying message I’m seeing is that people are sick of Johnson’s Tories (understandably so) but aren’t really that enamoured with Starmer’s Labour either.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Mid term by election, government will lose. It is ever thus.

3 elections for a constituency MP within 5 years wasn't ever thus. Losing a seat you had 60% of the vote in wasn't ever thus.

Honiton has been a Tory hold since 1885. Tiverton a Tory hold since 1885 other than 1 by-election in 1923. Honiton and Tiverton, bought together as a constituency since 1997 has been a safe Tory hold to the present.

 

[A1X]

I would imagine tactical voting will kick the Tories out of both. If they do lose both (and I don't think either is cut and dried) then I'd very much like to be a fly on the wall of No. 10 and the Tory backbenches in the next week or so.

 

[LamieRobertson]

This.

The results themselves aren’t the shock. You’d expect constituencies with small majorities to swing during mid-term by-elections. But not those with the scale of majority we have seen. The key aspect is how a resurgence in Lib Dem support will actually impact at the next GE. The underlying message I’m seeing is that people are sick of Johnson’s Tories (understandably so) but aren’t really that enamoured with Starmer’s Labour either.

Aye the choice remains as it did in the last election (leadership wise)..between crap and crap

 

[Lever]

]I would imagine tactical voting will kick the Tories out of both[/B]. If they do lose both (and I don't think either is cut and dried) then I'd very much like to be a fly on the wall of No. 10 and the Tory backbenches in the next week or so.

Good call....

I really do hope you are right but feel we can take nothing for granted; a 24,000 majority will take some overturning and I can only speculate that it will be a close call, one way or another - and if so, then the Crime Minister will simply dismiss it as a mid term blip...

 

[Is it PotG?]

Good call....

I really do hope you are right but feel we can take nothing for granted; a 24,000 majority will take some overturning and I can only speculate that it will be a close call, one way or another - and if so, then the Crime Minister will simply dismiss it as a mid term blip...

'Crime Minster'....love it.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

A good thread from Hugh Fearn;ey-Whittingstall in Honiton & Tiverton

[tweet]1539912290987802625[/tweet]

https://twitter.com/HughFW/status/1539912290987802625

 

[Audax]

A good thread from Hugh Fearn;ey-Whittingstall in Honiton & Tiverton

[tweet]1539912290987802625[/tweet]

https://twitter.com/HughFW/status/1539912290987802625

And that, right there, is a brilliant case study in why FPTP is a shite system. AV would let him vote Green 1, LD 2, Labour 3, Tory whatever is last and still have his vote count towards unseating the Tory.

 

[beorhthelm]

And that, right there, is a brilliant case study in why FPTP is a shite system. AV would let him vote Green 1, LD 2, Labour 3, Tory whatever is last and still have his vote count towards unseating the Tory.

if the Tory gets 50% they'll stay either way. or if enough people vote for someone else, there's no need to mess around with counting all those extra options. i'm coming round to the notion of some AV, but everytime i see an argument like this, looks like its just to vote out one you dont like.

 

[Gazwag]

To change the topic slightly I just looked at the odds for the next US election and Trump is clear favourite, its depressing

 

[lawros left foot]

Mid term by election, government will lose. It is ever thus.

To lose a 24,000 majority is still pretty impressive.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

if the Tory gets 50% they'll stay either way. or if enough people vote for someone else, there's no need to mess around with counting all those extra options. i'm coming round to the notion of some AV, but everytime i see an argument like this, looks like its just to vote out one you dont like.

AV is *not* a form of PR. It does not allocate seats in proportion to votes cast, it allocates a seat to individual candidates based on ranked preference.

 

[SAC]

A good thread from Hugh Fearn;ey-Whittingstall in Honiton & Tiverton

[tweet]1539912290987802625[/tweet]

https://twitter.com/HughFW/status/1539912290987802625

When the Tories can't reply on the vote fro someone called Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall, you know they are in trouble!

 

[Audax]

if the Tory gets 50% they'll stay either way. or if enough people vote for someone else, there's no need to mess around with counting all those extra options. i'm coming round to the notion of some AV, but everytime i see an argument like this, looks like its just to vote out one you dont like.

Isn't that what voting is about? It's about each individual being given the opportunity to say who they want to represent them ... and, thus, also who they *don't* want.

AV will never be usable to "vote out" someone who has 50% + 1 backing (same as FPTP). But what it can, and does, do is ensure that whoever wins a seat is the "most acceptable" to a majority of voters. And it also allows people like Hugh to vote for who they most want without worrying that they are in doing so making it easier for the person they least want.

Any system that forces someone to bite their tongue and vote for their 2nd or 3rd choice as their 1st choice because they need to vote tactically for their vote to have an impact is broken. That is why I am 100% a supporter of both AV and PR - both systems allow me (and you, and everyone else) to vote for their #1 preferred choice (and #2, #3, etc) safe in the knowledge that doing so isn't a "proxy" vote for the other side.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I would imagine tactical voting will kick the Tories out of both. If they do lose both (and I don't think either is cut and dried) then I'd very much like to be a fly on the wall of No. 10 and the Tory backbenches in the next week or so.

I can't imagine Johnson missing a single heartbeat. The only election that counts is the next general election. He'll say 'lessons will be learned and we shall work harder to deliver. Deliver, as we have on Brexit, on vaccines, and on the economy'.

 

[Hugo Rune]

AV is *not* a form of PR. It does not allocate seats in proportion to votes cast, it allocates a seat to individual candidates based on ranked preference.

That’s my preference. A constituency MP should always have the majority vote from their constituents in my opinion, even if it’s gone through 1/2 dozen counts to get the ‘preferred’ candidate.

 

[Swansman]

Graham Potter 5-0.

You read it here first.

 

[Bold Seagull]

I can't imagine Johnson missing a single heartbeat. The only election that counts is the next general election. He'll say 'lessons will be learned and we shall work harder to deliver. Deliver, as we have on Brexit, on vaccines, and on the economy'.

Levelling up. Don't forget levelling up.

 

[Lever]

'Crime Minster'....love it.

Well yes; I am pleased you support the appropriate nickname. He definitely has a proven record for law breaking and I cannot think why anyone would vote such a degenerate into power.... can you?