Britain facing 100 days of heavy snow in the worst winter since 1947. [Daily Express]

[TSB]

I'd like to know what US has to say on the subject.

 

[BigGully]

The converse is where you have a relatively stable synoptic pattern, similar to what we have currently; in those situations it's possible to predict general weather patterns some way out (not specifics though).

As we are currently we have a large high pressure over us and the near continent.


View attachment 49392

This looks like it will establish over Europe in the coming days, at which point it will continue to be topped up by ridges from the Azores high being pushed Eastwards by the jet to the north. It's a very stable setup, with a strong and cohesive Polar Vortex. It's the default setup for many of the winters mid 90s to early 2000s. Stable in setup, with weather ranging from Anticyclonic (like today) to wet and windy (when the high retreats over Europe).

I'd anticipate 10 days ot 2 weeks of this sort of weather, with the high retreating SE at times to allow rain to reach us, followed by a re-inforcement from trhe Azores and drier periods, with frost / fog possibly returning. The mildest weather will mostly be to the far NW, but it'll never be that cold, especially in terms of upper air.

I think that is an accurate assessment of the current data, but for me this is where weather forecasts become inevitably flawed and truly ever interesting.

Without any scientific back up, I cannot help but think that we are likely to have some colder/snowier spells unlike your comparison to the 90's-2000's winters.

Why ?

I just think we are locked into a colder set of winters than that era.

We will need to wait and see and time will tell if this might be the case, it will be an interesting post to revisit.

I enjoy your posts by the way

 

[Lady Whistledown]

Britain facing 100 days of heavy snow in the worst winter since 1947. [Daily ...

I never read the rag, but don't any of their readers ever write in to the editor to ask what is wrong with their weather predictions?

Most of them are in care homes I suspect, unable to remember what day it is, let alone what the Express said a week ago.

 

[The Stout Yeoman]

Serious question but how far ahead can forecasters realistically predict? I thought that beyond five days out it really does get a little fuzzy.

Roughly a day ... and they cant even get that right !!

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

I'd like to know what US has to say on the subject.

I am going LARGE on a White Christmas.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I think that is an accurate assessment of the current data, but for me this is where weather forecasts become inevitably flawed and truly ever interesting.

Without any scientific back up, I cannot help but think that we are likely to have some colder/snowier spells unlike your comparison to the 90's-2000's winters.

Why ?

I just think we are locked into a colder set of winters than that era.

We will need to wait and see and time will tell if this might be the case, it will be an interesting post to revisit.

I enjoy your posts by the way

I agree that we do seem to be in a new type of winter (a new paradigm if you will), so I too expect a very cold / snowy spell at some point.

The rapid arctic summer ice melt, and the resultant changes to the ocean heat balance and circulation has been suggested as a driver for the less zonal / weak Polar Vortex winters of late. Much more interesting.

 

[Fungus]

Just been out to the car and I have noticed that one of my Dahlias is still growing fairly well. Dahlias obviously don't read The Daily Express either.

We have roses still out, and the daffs have been poking through for weeks. Mine read the Guardian.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I am going LARGE on a White Christmas.

Based upon what?

I see Joe Bast@rdi has tweeted that he expects a very cold Xmas in Europe. I see nothing to really support this in the medium term data though.

 

[Giraffe]

I am going LARGE on a White Christmas.

I'll get the sun loungers out then.

 

[TSB]

I am going LARGE on a White Christmas.

That's all I needed to know. Thanks US.

 

[Hillian1]

I am going LARGE on a White Christmas.

Superb, I hate snow.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Based upon what?

I see Joe Bast@rdi has tweeted that he expects a very cold Xmas in Europe. I see nothing to really support this in the medium term data though.

Just doen some research - seemingly he's based that one a moderate stratospheric warming event forecast to occur over Asia. It's rather tenuous, and often these events take a while to affect the layers that generate weather.

Note - Statospheric Warming (Warming of the Stratosphere) has been linked to a more blocked pattern in the northern hemisphere, and a fragmentation of the Polar Vortex.

Emphasis added for Edna, as I know how much she likes this particular Vortex.

 

[Lady Whistledown]

Polar Vortex.

Emphasis added for Edna, as I know how much she likes this particular Vortex.

I love it when you talk dirty

 

[Lady Whistledown]

I am going LARGE on a White Christmas.

Now where did I put my bikini?

 

[LU7 RED]

I agree that we do seem to be in a new type of winter (a new paradigm if you will), so I too expect a very cold / snowy spell at some point.

The rapid arctic summer ice melt, and the resultant changes to the ocean heat balance and circulation has been suggested as a driver for the less zonal / weak Polar Vortex winters of late. Much more interesting.

Gulf stream packing up basically isn't it. There was a good doc on the BBC about that a few years ago. Cross channel ferries dodging ice bergs.

Saw that snow at the NFL match in Philly - and their latitude is the same as Spain! Goes to show how shafted we would be without the GS.

 

[Berty23]

Gulf stream packing up basically isn't it. There was a good doc on the BBC about that a few years ago. Cross channel ferries dodging ice bergs.

Saw that snow at the NFL match in Philly - and their latitude is the same as Spain! Goes to show how shafted we would be without the GS.

The latitude is what did for the first to go to USA. Landed in summer and thought it like Spain. Come te winter it was a bit different!

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Gulf stream packing up basically isn't it. There was a good doc on the BBC about that a few years ago. Cross channel ferries dodging ice bergs.

Saw that snow at the NFL match in Philly - and their latitude is the same as Spain! Goes to show how shafted we would be without the GS.

The Gulf Stream does help keep Britian warmer than the equivalent latitudes on the East Coast US, but it's the proximity to the ocean and the prevailing Westerly winds that do most of it. Comparing us to Eastern Europe / ASIA we'd still be considerably warmer in winter even without the Gulf Stream.

On that subject, there was a scare about the Gulf Stream weakening or even stopping due to the volume of fresh water being added in the Arctic, but in reality there's no real trend to support this. The key is the changes in ice / water distributions and changes in evaporation etc is what is possibly changing the cohesion and intensity of the Polar Vortex, which in turn allows colder air to be forced further south than usual.

 

[nicko31]

The Gulf Stream does help keep Britian warmer than the equivalent latitudes on the East Coast US, but it's the proximity to the ocean and the prevailing Westerly winds that do most of it. Comparing us to Eastern Europe / ASIA we'd still be considerably warmer in winter even without the Gulf Stream.

On that subject, there was a scare about the Gulf Stream weakening or even stopping due to the volume of fresh water being added in the Arctic, but in reality there's no real trend to support this. The key is the changes in ice / water distributions and changes in evaporation etc is what is possibly changing the cohesion and intensity of the Polar Vortex, which in turn allows colder air to be forced further south than usual.[/QUOTE

Without the Gulf Stream Brighton would have regular fog well into the summer months. The UK would have a climate like the Falklands, pretty horrible even compared to now..

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

I am going LARGE on a White Christmas.

The Southwick KKK has been reformed

 

[Lady Whistledown]

Out of interest, US, just how LARGE are you going on this white Christmas prediction?