Brightons R rate

[CheeseRolls]

Andy Burnham is publishing the regional R Rate numbers on Twitter. Apologies Cloudflare blocked me from embedding the tweet.

https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1268640280040873984

Here is the Argus coverage
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/18497309.coronavirus-sharp-rise-brighton-hove-cases/

My own conclusion is that the numbers presented do not justify the tone of the Argus piece. WTF they will say when and if the numbers do show something significant. I expect they will be universally ignored long before then, if they carry on like this.

This is how SpiritFM (no idea never heard it to be honest) are reporting numbers for West Sussex.
https://www.spiritfm.net/news/susse...ssex-goes-third-day-without-a-hospital-death/

I think we have a clear downward trend pointing to minimal cases nationally be the end of June, which looks very encouraging.

 

[Yoda]

I can understand why they are thinking this. The table below is based on confirmed cases based from when the sample was taken.

 

[golddene]

I don't know about 'R' rates or suchlike but by doing just 'back of a fag packet' maths, on the 22nd of May the confirmed cases registered for Brighton area were 413 cases with 136 deaths ! = 33% mortality? Frightening statistic on the face of it, obviously these are only confirmed cases so this percentage will probably be lower due to not all cases of covid are confirmed, but still quite alarming.

 

[Guinness Boy]

I don't know about 'R' rates or suchlike but by doing just 'back of a fag packet' maths, on the 22nd of May the confirmed cases registered for Brighton area were 413 cases with 136 deaths ! = 33% mortality? Frightening statistic on the face of it, obviously these are only confirmed cases so this percentage will probably be lower due to not all cases of covid are confirmed, but still quite alarming.

Only testing those admitted to hospital for most or all of that time. I'd hope that changes a bit now we have the Amex testing centre available to all.

However, someone at the Council clearly does put a lot of stock in an R number based on a too-small sample as we've just been told the council won't allow schools to reopen fully until 15 June, despite the heads agreeing on a virtual call that it was safe!!!

 

[golddene]

Only testing those admitted to hospital for most or all of that time. I'd hope that changes a bit now we have the Amex testing centre available to all.

However, someone at the Council clearly does put a lot of stock in an R number based on a too-small sample as we've just been told the council won't allow schools to reopen fully until 15 June, despite the heads agreeing on a virtual call that it was safe!!!

I think they're erring on the side of caution and quite right to be that way as being wise after the event has got us to where we are now in my opinion. Safe rather than sorry!
on an aside the figures taken from 22nd May (the latest ONS release) for deaths and cases.
West Sussex..... 1281 cases 545 deaths = 42.5%
East Sussex...….674 cases 304 deaths = 45%
Kent...…………..4696 cases 997 deaths = 21.2%
Not great reading, though as stated earlier not all cases reported.

 

[The Wizard]

Copied from the main COVID thread but very relevant here

Alistair Hill, director of public health for Brighton and Hove City Council, says the numbers of new infections in Brighton is so low that it’s impossible to calculate an accurate R number.

Last week, the app calculated the R number for Brighton and Hove was 1.68, the fourth highest figures in the country – but this was based on a rise of confirmed cases of just eight, from 10 to 18.

He says he expects the rate calculated by the app to rise in the coming weeks purely because results from the Amex testing centre will begin to be included in official figures

And tests – and therefore confirmed cases – will also ramp up when the test and trace system begins in earnest.

 

[WilburySeagull]

Only testing those admitted to hospital for most or all of that time. I'd hope that changes a bit now we have the Amex testing centre available to all.

However, someone at the Council clearly does put a lot of stock in an R number based on a too-small sample as we've just been told the council won't allow schools to reopen fully until 15 June, despite the heads agreeing on a virtual call that it was safe!!!

The council can only advise schools not order them. They have sent a long letter to schools basically saying they believe its too early to open. However my grandsons school had already planned its gradual reopening with y6 from 15th y1 from 22nd and reception from 29th and have just confirmed they are sticking with that.

I fear that on both sides the rropening or not is becoming political rather than medical.

 

[Guinness Boy]

The council can only advise schools not order them. They have sent a long letter to schools basically saying they believe its too early to open. However my grandsons school had already planned its gradual reopening with y6 from 15th y1 from 22nd and reception from 29th and have just confirmed they are sticking with that.

I fear that on both sides the rropening or not is becoming political rather than medical.

Yes, I agree. Tory government putting Tories first, Labour council trying to score points against them and teaching unions standing off against the government.

A lot of what Boris wants to do (and the teachers do not) IS pretty mad because what's the point of enforcing social distancing at drop off and pick up when you've told schools to open to 4 and 5 year olds who cannot socially distance! However, it seems the council are just as bad and no one really gives a shit about the kids so long as they get an X in the box.

 

[sagaman]

Sadly the Councillors are playing politics in Brighton. Schools on other parts of Sussex are reopening.

Schools were ready to open safely with very few numbers daily after risk assessments etc when the Education Chair advised them on Thursday not to open on Monday. This has really angered many Heads and parents.

This longer lockout is putting much pressure on parents, children and creating strain in families.
What about the kids mental heath?

Not everyone has technology at home and food poverty is a big issue for many with growth of food banks

As a previous poster said the Director of Public Health can give no figures to justify The Council decisions

Whilst a tricky issue the Council needs to leave it to individual schools to decide and not be obstructive for point scoring reasons

 

[WATFORD zero]

I don't know about 'R' rates or suchlike but by doing just 'back of a fag packet' maths, on the 22nd of May the confirmed cases registered for Brighton area were 413 cases with 136 deaths ! = 33% mortality? Frightening statistic on the face of it, obviously these are only confirmed cases so this percentage will probably be lower due to not all cases of covid are confirmed, but still quite alarming.

I've had a phone call. Could you scan that Fag packet and send it to b.johnson@gov.co.uk please ?

 

[Is it PotG?]

I've had a phone call. Could you scan that Fag packet and send it to b.johnson@gov.co.uk please ?

I just tried the address you kindly provided, but the email was returned saying 'no such address' or alike.

Can you check and resubmit please?

 

[LamieRobertson]

Copied from the main COVID thread but very relevant here

Alistair Hill, director of public health for Brighton and Hove City Council, says the numbers of new infections in Brighton is so low that it’s impossible to calculate an accurate R number.

Last week, the app calculated the R number for Brighton and Hove was 1.68, the fourth highest figures in the country – but this was based on a rise of confirmed cases of just eight, from 10 to 18.

He says he expects the rate calculated by the app to rise in the coming weeks purely because results from the Amex testing centre will begin to be included in official figures

And tests – and therefore confirmed cases – will also ramp up when the test and trace system begins in earnest.

Ain’t that just so....also read something yesterday on the much heralded nation of GERMANY where recently the R had jumped to something like 1.3 then a few days later to .57 ...lower the cases the greater the fluctuation

 

[sagaman]

https://www.brightonandhovenews.org...-coronavirus-cases-are-rocketing-in-brighton/

COUNCIL URGES CAUTION ON REPORTED FIGURES - FAKE NEWS ALERT!!

 

[Machiavelli]

Just to this thread. The B&H R-rate 'spiked' up by 8 (copyright: The Argus) a couple of weeks ago. That was a one-off, and it's been trickling up by one or two on a daily basis subsequently.

 

[sparkie]

Just to this thread. The B&H R-rate 'spiked' up by 8 (copyright: The Argus) a couple of weeks ago. That was a one-off, and it's been trickling up by one or two on a daily basis subsequently.

The R value is 8 and rising ?

That is insane.

Each person infects 8 others ? The whole city will be infected by July.

 

[atomised]

The R value is 8 and rising ?

That is insane.

Each person infects 8 others ? The whole city will be infected by July.

Indeed that makes the r rate in brighton at least 22 probably ly higher we are all doomed. That's 10 people infecting 220. Crazy numbers yet the hospitals seem to be reporting very differently

 

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

Just to this thread. The B&H R-rate 'spiked' up by 8 (copyright: The Argus) a couple of weeks ago. That was a one-off, and it's been trickling up by one or two on a daily basis subsequently.

The R-rate was not 8 and the Argus never reported it was. On the 4th June they reported a spike in new cases with 8 being announced in 1 day. It’s since gone back down to 1 or 2 new cases per day. The R-rate went above 1 but that is because Brighton has a fairly low number of infections that a relatively small rise in cases can cause a big rise in the R-rate.

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/18497309.coronavirus-sharp-rise-brighton-hove-cases/

https://new.brighton-hove.gov.uk/news/2020/facts-about-covid19-data-city-setting-record-straight

 

[Machiavelli]

Thanks for the swift corrections. I of course meant the number of cases, and not the R-rate

 

[LamieRobertson]

The R-rate was not 8 and the Argus never reported it was. On the 4th June they reported a spike in new cases with 8 being announced in 1 day. It’s since gone back down to 1 or 2 new cases per day. The R-rate went above 1 but that is because Brighton has a fairly low number of infections that a relatively small rise in cases can cause a big rise in the R-rate.

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/18497309.coronavirus-sharp-rise-brighton-hove-cases/

https://new.brighton-hove.gov.uk/news/2020/facts-about-covid19-data-city-setting-record-straight

Panic over