Brighton, Strikers and Moneyball - a hypothesis

[sussex_guy2k2]

I was thinking about Pritchard when I wrote it, and I can only assume they determined he was the appropriate value even at that transfer fee, perhaps that his resale value was locked in and likely to rise given his age and background. I also imagine that his wages were low and controllable - indeed low enough that it was easy for Norwich to hijack the deal.

I think that wages are the key here, not transfer fees. Transfer fees are spread out over the length of the contract, and in many cases recoverable or even able to turn a profit. Wages on the other hand are pure expense. I'm also reminded of Grabban, who we balked on because of wages, and Murray six years ago.

Pritchard is a perfect moneyball example based on his age, current market values, the position we needed filling, and his experience based on his year at Brentford. Goals, assists, chances created... at our level, he does have it all in the right system.

 

[FatSuperman]

Very interesting topic. I would imagine that Baseball is probably far easier to build that kind of statistical analysis. There are so many more footballers around the world, playing other different footballers etc that the permutations must be several orders of magnitude bigger.

I would imagine Brighton have some very sophisticated approaches to the problem. I'd hope we are looking at signings that complement each other, based on our current players characteristics (style, strengths, weaknesses, etc). Possibly you could look at our recent few years transfer windows to see that we appear to be far more careful than the norm, despite being able to spend if needed. The club clearly realise that spending £10m on a striker is less efficient points-wise than two £4m defenders.

If all this is true, then the numbers probably said that Prichard would be an extremely good compliment to our set up. As opposed to Norwich's approach of having money burning a hole in their pocket so just buy someone and worry about where they fit later.

None of the above based on facts of course!

 

[coagulantwolf]

Data and player analytics in baseball is much 'better' than what we have currently in football. They're trying to obviously recreate this in football, but it's really not simple the mathmatical models around it.

Clubs and companies are constantly working to improve this.

 

[Bozza]

I'll add that I also believe there is now a big crossover between professional football and the gaming companies that make football games. A lot of the data collected is valued by other industries.

 

[Sweeney Todd]

Threads like this one highlight why many of us would frequent NSC even if we were not Albion fans.

 

[Charlies Shinpad]

Read The Nowhere Men by Michael Calvin and everything will become clear.

Read it this week and a cracking read as well
Mentions Lewis Dunk being a right footed player playing left side of defence and a great piece with Barry Lloyd [emoji106]

 

[Perkino]

A sensible route is to look at a player we would love to sign or have in our team (Michael Owen) and list his attributes.

Most clubs in our league want such players so buying from them costs money, Premiership sides have youngsters with these attributes in their academies. Take one on loan and expose him to first-team experience and hope he adds to your team and little or no cost to your club and wishes to consider you once he realizes that his parent club aren't going to offer him a chance in the first team

Or raid clubs from the league below who have young players with the required attributes and are in no position to pay the wages that you can. The risk involved is often very low but equally so is the return

 

[Not Andy Naylor]

The overvaluing of strikers was a lesson that should have been learnt after Everton's experiences in the 1980s.

They won the league in 1984-5 then bought Gary Lineker. He was the top scorer in the country in the following season but Everton were runners-up.

They sold Lineker to Barcelona and bought central defender Dave Watson from Norwich. The following season their top scorer was midfielder Trevor Steven with only 14 goals but they won the league again. The top scorer that season was Clive Allen of Spurs with 49 goals. The runners up.

 

[SeafordBHA]

Read it this week and a cracking read as well
Mentions Lewis Dunk being a right footed player playing left side of defence and a great piece with Barry Lloyd [emoji106]

For the rest of us, please could you briefly explain the detail regarding Dunk being on the left side of defence?

 

[ThePompousPaladin]

I think there is a place for the stats to be considered as part of an overall recruitment strategy and approach, but football is very different from baseball which doesn't rely on teamwork and team spirit (but much more on the ability to throw or hit a ball) - which as our lot have shown can mean a team can contribute so much more than the sum of its constituent parts. The moneyball algorithms can't compute that stuff but it can make or break a season.

I wonder if some kind of psychometric evaluation could be used to assess character, and thrown into an algorithm.
I do agree that the team aspect is crucial to success, a lot of this must be down to the manager and key players.

 

[ThePompousPaladin]

I think there is a place for the stats to be considered as part of an overall recruitment strategy and approach, but football is very different from baseball which doesn't rely on teamwork and team spirit (but much more on the ability to throw or hit a ball) - which as our lot have shown can mean a team can contribute so much more than the sum of its constituent parts. The moneyball algorithms can't compute that stuff but it can make or break a season.

Actually just thought of a good way to assess this.
You can do it by looking at how a player's stats change during the course of a match according to the score. You'd probably have to make some adjustments for time on pitch when over a certain amount for fatigue.

 

[Not Andy Naylor]

Data and player analytics in baseball is much 'better' than what we have currently in football. They're trying to obviously recreate this in football, but it's really not simple the mathmatical models around it.

Clubs and companies are constantly working to improve this.

As has been mentioned here, it is easier to identify an undervalued stat in baseball than in football. On-base percentage was the key stat targeted by the Oakland As in Moneyball, which was important because if your players always got on base (whether by drawing a walk or by getting singles) then in theory you couldn't lose because you'd never be out. And it was undervalued by the big clubs who put most of their big bucks into power hitters because they sold replica jerseys. The difficulty in football is finding the equivalent undervalued stat. I remember talking to someone at Celtic about it during the 2004 European Championships and we wondered if it was in defence or goalkeeping but I don't know that we're really that much closer to an answer that makes sense for football.

 

[AWAYDAY]

Interesting post and intelligent debate. I thought I was on NSC??

 

[el punal]

Warburton is a huge advocate of it isn't he? Certainly in his time at Brentford.

I thought that was the reason he left - that the Brentford board wanted to introduce moneyball or whatever you want to call it, rather than the traditional method of the manager choosing the players and system that HE wants. I could of course be talking complete bollocks in which case I offer my sincere and heartfelt apologies.

 

[sussex_guy2k2]

As has been mentioned here, it is easier to identify an undervalued stat in baseball than in football. On-base percentage was the key stat targeted by the Oakland As in Moneyball, which was important because if your players always got on base (whether by drawing a walk or by getting singles) then in theory you couldn't lose because you'd never be out. And it was undervalued by the big clubs who put most of their big bucks into power hitters because they sold replica jerseys. The difficulty in football is finding the equivalent undervalued stat. I remember talking to someone at Celtic about it during the 2004 European Championships and we wondered if it was in defence or goalkeeping but I don't know that we're really that much closer to an answer that makes sense for football.

You raise an interesting point. I'd just elaborate by saying that the key stats are likely to change depending on league, country, style of play per team, position etc, so I'd argue that the key undervalued stat that you're talking about maybe be team specific...

 

[perseus]

I think there is a place for the stats to be considered as part of an overall recruitment strategy and approach, but football is very different from baseball which doesn't rely on teamwork and team spirit (but much more on the ability to throw or hit a ball) - which as our lot have shown can mean a team can contribute so much more than the sum of its constituent parts. The moneyball algorithms can't compute that stuff but it can make or break a season.

I see it as a double check. Intuition and perception must play a part in decision making. It does in other walks of life.

When buying your dream house, it makes sense to get a surveyor (he can still miss something!). The living room might look spacious than it actually is. A player may look quicker than he actually is?

Buying a house needs a "medical" but not a psychological profile or a football intelligence profile.

 

[perseus]

I wonder if some kind of psychometric evaluation could be used to assess character, and thrown into an algorithm.
I do agree that the team aspect is crucial to success, a lot of this must be down to the manager and key players.

What type of psychometric evaluation? I asked a headhunter in the science/technology business and they do not use this (but the headhunter may be a trained psychologist)? Different trade though.

 

[perseus]

For the rest of us, please could you briefly explain the detail regarding Dunk being on the left side of defence?

The trouble is with a left footer is what Hünemeier did against Lincoln. He passed inside to the Lincoln player. This is more risky. Watson (remember him) at right back did it all the time and gave the ball away.

Distribution is one of the reasons why a full back should be have a strong foot on the correct side when clearing under pressure.

 

[perseus]

Here are the 12 secrets to the transfer market as determined by Soccernomics. I suspect that Albion use many of these, but not all:

1. A new manager wastes money on transfers: don't let them
2. Use the wisdom of crowds
3. Stars of recent World Cups etc are overvalued. Ignore them
4. Certain nationalities are overvalued
5. Older players are overvalued
6. Centre Forwards are overvalued; Goalkeepers are undervalued
7. Identify and abandon sight based prejudices (this is the theory that some scouts identify players that stand out because they are tall or blonde, or other factors not based upon skill and technique. I don't think we should discuss that further.....)
8. The best time to buy a player is when they are in their early 20's
9. Sell any player when a club offers more than they are worth
10. Replace your best players before you sell them
11. Buy players with personal problems and help them overcome them (Paddy?)
12. Help your players relocate.

Interesting. As a starter. "Buying Football Player for Dummies."

 

[ThePompousPaladin]

What type of psychometric evaluation? I asked a headhunter in the science/technology business and they do not use this (but the headhunter may be a trained psychologist)? Different trade though.

As posted above, a way to do this might be to see how their workrate stats vary according to the score line.