[Albion] Brighton still 6/1 to go down ....

[Worried Man Blues]

Possession vs shots /goals, there will be a match fixing enquiry

 

[banjo]

£20 @4/1. It will cover some of the misery if we go down.

 

[SittingbourneSeagull]

Newcastle are rank. With the 3 up-top out they're relying on Joelinton for their goals.
Imagine that.

Who are we relying on?

 

[GloryDays]

I think xG is the curveball. It seems to be a stat peddled by the bookies to entice gambling and can't go back on it now. The stats suggest we will be fine but it does seem the majority of journalists and betting companies don't actually watch many games.

I saw an article the other day about how Potter was too good for Brighton and it seemed to all be about xG. The footer at the bottom of the article reminded people to gamble responsibly. I feel like a lot of stats these days aren't actually about analysis for fans to digest but to equip the gambling community with information that will make them feel more confident parting with their money.

 

[pasty]

I'm standing by the "bookies are rarely wrong" mantra so won't be sticking anything on us going down. Not that I would anyway, it's just wrong.

 

[Richy_Seagull]

I think xG is the curveball. It seems to be a stat peddled by the bookies to entice gambling and can't go back on it now. The stats suggest we will be fine but it does seem the majority of journalists and betting companies don't actually watch many games.

I saw an article the other day about how Potter was too good for Brighton and it seemed to all be about xG. The footer at the bottom of the article reminded people to gamble responsibly. I feel like a lot of stats these days aren't actually about analysis for fans to digest but to equip the gambling community with information that will make them feel more confident parting with their money.

You think that betting companies don't watch many games.......

 

[Mancgull]

PP doing 7/1 for Relegation treble of Sheff U, WBA, BHA.....

Sky bet is 8/1 but you have to have the order right. I had a little dabble on that.

All those saying that Newcastle look doomed are overlooking the fact that Callum Wilson, Saint Maximam, Almiron should be fit again for the end of the season whereas for us March and Lamptey are out for the season.
I really hope I'm wrong, but I think we look like relegation certainties.

 

[KeegansHairPiece]

I really hope I'm wrong, but I think we look like relegation certainties.

So many fans do this to protect themselves against the disappointment. Geordies will be doing exactly the same. We can't all be right.

The fans of Fulham will have felt doomed all season, they didn't have any hope a while back, so they can feel quite optimistic as relegation is expected.

There is absolutely no reason we are any more certain than Fulham or Newcastle. Over 1/4 of the season still left. 1 game at a time.

 

[blue-shifted]

Sky bet is 8/1 but you have to have the order right. I had a little dabble on that.

All those saying that Newcastle look doomed are overlooking the fact that Callum Wilson, Saint Maximam, Almiron should be fit again for the end of the season whereas for us March and Lamptey are out for the season.
I really hope I'm wrong, but I think we look like relegation certainties.

It doesn't mean we are relegation certainties, but it does mean that anything other than a win against them is a very bad result

 

[nwgull]

You can still get 6-1

 

[blue-shifted]

You can still get 6-1

It's an incredible bet. Brilliant value

I'm not doing it. But it's great value

 

[zefarelly]

I think xG is the curveball. It seems to be a stat peddled by the bookies to entice gambling and can't go back on it now. The stats suggest we will be fine but it does seem the majority of journalists and betting companies don't actually watch many games.

I saw an article the other day about how Potter was too good for Brighton and it seemed to all be about xG. The footer at the bottom of the article reminded people to gamble responsibly. I feel like a lot of stats these days aren't actually about analysis for fans to digest but to equip the gambling community with information that will make them feel more confident parting with their money.

Good point

the only stat most fans are interested in is are we winning a few games.

No we're not, hence the dissatisfaction.

 

[Murray 17]

I took 13/2 for us to go down, after the Fulham game, and I've never bet against us before. Relying on 3 other teams to be worse than us is worrying. I think we are sleep-walking into big trouble.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

 

[portslade seagull]

I took 13/2 for us to go down, after the Fulham game, and I've never bet against us before. Relying on 3 other teams to be worse than us is worrying. I think we are sleep-walking into big trouble.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

Been sleep walking since the summer transfer window

 

[chaileyjem]

All those saying that Newcastle look doomed are overlooking the fact that Callum Wilson, Saint Maximam, Almiron should be fit again for the end of the season whereas for us March and Lamptey are out for the season.
.

Weren't Newcastle struggling and losing games when they were fit ?

 

[GloryDays]

You think that betting companies don't watch many games.......

It feels like they don't. I obviously know they are forensically trawling all the games to find anything to use (xG) to promote their business. My point was that xG is digested in a way to suggest that we aren't in a perilous situation. And too much data these days represents ulterior purposes, rather than to explain the actual occurrences of the matches. Touches in the box, successful pressures, xG, successful dribbles, shot creating plays...Possession.

But I do think many pundits carry a certain opinion without really ever watching us play. Currently Bissouma is the darling, prior to that it was White. March going solidly under the radar until his injury etc. Just amuses me how popular opinion doesn't need to necessarily be a correct one.

 

[Seagull58]

I'm standing by the "bookies are rarely wrong" mantra so won't be sticking anything on us going down. Not that I would anyway, it's just wrong.

They were very wrong about the Manc derby yesterday. Our relegation odds have steamed in from 25 to 1 so far

 

[blue-shifted]

It feels like they don't. I obviously know they are forensically trawling all the games to find anything to use (xG) to promote their business. My point was that xG is digested in a way to suggest that we aren't in a perilous situation. And too much data these days represents ulterior purposes, rather than to explain the actual occurrences of the matches. Touches in the box, successful pressures, xG, successful dribbles, shot creating plays...Possession.

But I do think many pundits carry a certain opinion without really ever watching us play. Currently Bissouma is the darling, prior to that it was White. March going solidly under the radar until his injury etc. Just amuses me how popular opinion doesn't need to necessarily be a correct one.

Yeh, I think it's this.

I don't think we've had one all year, who's actually done their homework on us. They just regurgitate, White was at Leeds, Lamptey was at Chelsea, Burn is 6 foot 7 and Brighton are easy on the eye but need a striker.

(All of the above are true, but aren't that hard to find out)

 

[vagabond]

I think xG is the curveball. It seems to be a stat peddled by the bookies to entice gambling and can't go back on it now.

Most elite clubs here and around the world have data science departments pouring over every metric imaginable, including xG. It’s not something just for the bookies.

 

[Mancgull]

Weren't Newcastle struggling and losing games when they were fit ?

They managed to beat Everton at Goodison when Almiron and Wilson were fit. Having all three out is like us being without three of our first teamers...... Eg March, Lamptey and Webster.