[Politics] Brexit

[beorhthelm]

This really reminds me of something that happened 19 years ago and was called the millennium bug , loads and loads of doomsday stuff for oils happen on January 1st 2000, did it ? , did it feck? Same as this old shite. They have had over 3 years to sort this out and yet they still want to postpone it yet again and then it will postponed again after that till they get another referendum . The consensus wanted out so let’s get out . Deal or no deal

your comparison would work better had "they" spent years preparing and investing in the necessary changes. by "they" i mean the leave leaders, who did sweet fa to prepare to leave.

 

[Mo Gosfield]

You didn't ask for mine.

I tend to believe Yellowhammer, not least because the government has tried to hide, obfuscate and spin it and yet it is based on known things, or facts as I like to call them, Following a no deal Brexit food prices will go up and there will be shortages. This will be because of delays in getting imports in to the country, changes in subsidies and tariffs and panicky idiots hording and panic buying. It will be worse in November precisely as per the BBC analysis I quoted -- because storage is geared up for Black Friday and Christmas.

Medicines will also be harder to come by and there is a real risk that some life saving medicine will not be available. This is again due to importing it.

Queues at the border will be a nightmare, unless the government takes the decision on this side of the border, to carry on as we have before. Even if they do we cannot legislate for what other EU states will do on their borders. This is the very opposite of taking back control. However, if we decide to operate a full border on this side we are screwed because I can promise you that the IT and systems changes needed to support this will not even have been tested by now.

By far the worst border issue will be Northern Ireland. If we return to a hard border then we break the GFA and risk the devolved government, handing the advantage to fringe terror groups who are already ramping up in (London) Derry. We will also put the supply chains of hundreds of Northern Irish businesses at risk. But, again, I don't believe for a minute there any border posts or IT systems ready. This means we will still have a back door to the EU after "no deal", without a backstop.

Then there's fuel. The fact the government redacted this part of yellowhammer is worrying to anyone with half a brain.

Care to debunk the above with actual facts, without resorting to abuse?

Try listening to the former Head of the Port of Dover, on the Ian Dale show on LBC, earlier this week.
Its of interest to anyone who fears food/medicine shortages and delays in importing. He makes it clear that there is likely to be more of an issue in exporting but even those are being worked on. Over 150 ' pop up ' stations in the UK and Europe just been created to help drivers check paperwork before reaching ports ( and thats just to cover No Deal / WTO ),
I am no expert on pharmaceuticals but I know a fair amount about food ( work in the industry ) and we are used to volatility in prices and product availability. Its regular. The general public don't notice it so much at supermarket level. Many shop on ' auto pilot ' not monitoring prices that closely. Immediately post June 2016, many imported European products went up 15-20% in price. Some of this was passed on, some absorbed by the industry. Compare the price of butter now to 3-4 years ago or bacon. People have happily paid the hefty price hike on canned drinks under the guise of a ' sugar tax ' ( Funny how the government left the more sensitive milk industry alone, when flavoured milks have the highest sugar content of any drink )
Whatever happens and plenty of planning is in place, the food industry will absorb any short term increases, it always does. There will be few shortages and the general public will notice very little change.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

your comparison would work better had "they" spent years preparing and investing in the necessary changes. by "they" i mean the leave leaders, who did sweet fa to prepare to leave.

I think this country is better prepared than they make out, I really do.

 

[beorhthelm]

He's hardly going to say "it's going to be a terrible shambles" is he?

Did they speak to any Irish or French border officials? We can only control our own side. And did he say whther they were prepared because they were just going to carry on as normal or did he say they'd implement a whole new set of physical and information systems in a "big bang" go live on 1 November,

to be fair the French have apparently done quite a lot in preparation, extending terminals, having special process in place for short term customs arrangements. the Irish have built a port and facilities in Dublin to enable more shipping direct. its hard to say in the mud slinging if we have done as much as needed.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

This really reminds me of something that happened 19 years ago and was called the millennium bug , loads and loads of doomsday stuff for oils happen on January 1st 2000, did it ? , did it feck? Same as this old shite. They have had over 3 years to sort this out and yet they still want to postpone it yet again and then it will postponed again after that till they get another referendum . The consensus wanted out so let’s get out . Deal or no deal

Millions of man hours of work in advance killed the millennium bug.

Has there been millions of man hours of preparation for *no deal* Brexit ?

Has the Government funded massive greenhouses and poly tunnels all over the country to grow enough produce ? Has a new fuel only import terminal been built ? Has a way been found of importing enough lifesaving but time decaying isotopes ? Have the new pharmaceutical factories been built ? Just for starters.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Moderate worst case scenario. So there we have it, worst case.

It's amazing, you listen to Radio 4 and they speak to somebody from customs at Dover, who said they are prepared for No Deal, everything is calm.

Brexit day will be like any other day.

Yellowhammer is not worst case. Black Swan is. Let's have that released.

 

[beorhthelm]

I think this country is better prepared than they make out, I really do.

it wasnt about if we have prepared enough. the point is the leave leaders had no plan for leaving and then sat on their hands for a couple of years rather than getting on with implementing. left it to a reluctant PM to do something they didnt want to.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Now I know that all leavers aren't thick (I've been told enough times)

But f*** me, [MENTION=17215]Sussex Nomad[/MENTION] has bought the average down a few percentage points over the last two nights

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

I think this country is better prepared than they make out, I really do.

Perhaps you are right. The bottom line though is that there is no 'best case scenario', other than Remaining with what we've already got and we are all speculating on degrees of awfulness.

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

Now I know that all leavers aren't thick (I've been told enough times)

But f*** me, [MENTION=17215]Sussex Nomad[/MENTION] has bought the average down a few percentage points over the last two nights

Everyone makes their own contribution to our cosy little thread in their own (unique) way, bless 'em.

 

[daveinplzen]

I think this country is better prepared than they make out, I really do.

Yeah, Im sure the government are just keeping it quiet

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Good grief, why do remainers have to keep posting this lie, fallacy, conspiracy theory ? So, YET AGAIN, here's the facts. EVERY condition under the EU Anti Tax Avoidance Directive that comes in to force next year is ALREADY in UK law. Boris, JRM and their cronies can't avoid it because it's ALREADY part of UK law. It really is very simple yet remainers can't seem to grasp this ….. and they call leavers thickos

Strangely every time this has been pointed out the remainer that posted the lie has failed to respond - possibly knowing how stupid they look.

There are two elements that are not in UK law …. yet …. and these do not come into effect in the EU until June 2022 - so nearly three years away. So hardly a reason to push through a quick Brexit.

It is interesting that the kremlin propaganda website globalresearch.ca has recently pushed this tax avoidance story.

Seems like they are casting the stones of blame away from Moscow.

 

[daveinplzen]

The 'on-going negotiations' myth.


But while the government says progress is being made, the EU insists no formal proposals have been tabled.

"We want to keep this going," an EU source says. "But at some point the UK needs to give us a proposal. We can't negotiate without one."

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

Yeah, Im sure the government are just keeping it quiet

You only have to watch an interview with the likes of Andrea Leadsom to come away reassured on the calibre of the people who are driving this madness.

 

[Lever]

Perhaps you are right. The bottom line though is that there is no 'best case scenario', other than Remaining with what we've already got and we are all speculating on degrees of awfulness.

Spot on.
Leaving with or without a deal will either make life 'a little worse' or 'much worse'..... and now Leave opinion formers are busy trying to convince us that it will be just a 'little worse' - and some people have convinced themselves that is a wonderful prospect and we would be treacherous not to embrace it!

Extraordinarily clever political moves to persuade and retain suggestible voters!

 

[narly101]

This really reminds me of something that happened 19 years ago and was called the millennium bug , loads and loads of doomsday stuff for oils happen on January 1st 2000, did it ? , did it feck? Same as this old shite. They have had over 3 years to sort this out and yet they still want to postpone it yet again and then it will postponed again after that till they get another referendum . The consensus wanted out so let’s get out . Deal or no deal

What an utterly ridiculous analogy, and clear that you weren't involved in the remediation of the millennium bug. The efforts prior to the millennium bug were huge, and businesses took the scaremongering seriously and resolved the crisis causing systems before they could impact us.

If you're going to use an analogy of a physical hardware and software bug at the ned of 2000, with the exit of the EU for the United Kingdom, then you might want to do a bit of research on your analogy.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

You only have to watch an interview with the likes of Andrea Leadsom to come away reassured on the calibre of the people who are driving this madness.

Liz Truss is even worse.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Spot on.
Leaving with or without a deal will either make life 'a little worse' or 'much worse'..... and now Leave opinion formers are busy trying to convince us that it will be just a 'little worse' - and some people have convinced themselves that is a wonderful prospect and we would be treacherous not to embrace it!

Extraordinarily clever political moves to persuade and retain suggestible voters!

Leaving with EFTA membership, and paying for EEA access until we get a new Super Switzerland trade deal ( 10 years to negotiate ? ) will actually make life better than remaining.

( Not that I am against remaining, and would vote for it again as a leave vote would be corrupted to mean *no deal* ).

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Is it merely coincidence that an anagram of 'Yellowhammer' is 'Orwell Mayhem'?

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

You only have to watch an interview with the likes of Andrea Leadsom to come away reassured on the calibre of the people who are driving this madness.

Dreadsom. I look forward to the day when she is "Yesterday's Zero".