[Politics] Brexit

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Interesting that even on this poll which is asking will it happen we have come out at 52:48. Peoples views are firmly entrenched.

You are illistrating perfectly why referendums are wrong. Entrenched means fixed. A 52:48 split means that the opinion is divided. The fact that the split is much the same as the referendum result (50:50) means views are firmly entrenched only if NSC is a fair representation of the naion as a whole (and people say NSC is raddled with lefty snowflakes so presumably not) AND all the same people who supported remain or leave back then are the same people who think we will remain or leave now. To deduce this means entrenchment is speculative. I think it is unlikely since it means that 100% of us are guilty of wishful thinking (wanting and expecting the same outcome). This is extremely unlikely given the numbers of people howling about having their Brexit stolen away, or (equally absurdly) being forced into a no deal even though they want to remain. So overall I couldn't imagine a deduction more wrong than yours. Not much change there, then.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Utter nonsense. NSC has always been about 65% - 70% remain. I voted yes because i think it will happen but would vote remain in another referendum.

Not sure that my being politer than you on this ocasion is a virtue, but you're spot on.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

That is amazing. A load of optimistic conjecture (maybe we can call it "Project Happy") and stuff we can and already do. It's a great game to play. Just ask someone who voted leave to name ONE benefit that we'll get if/when we leave the EU that we don't get now. I played it over Christmas (the time flies in my household). My elderly neighbour: We'll get our freedom of speech back so he'll be able to call Irish people Paddy again. My elderly mum: Butter will be cheap again, like it was before we joined. She doesn't even eat butter (presumably because it's too expensive).

 

[Albion Dan]

No. The whole shit show is being orchestrated by the powers that be to make it appear that leaving is just going to be too painful to deliver leading to a new referendum where they hope the country will change its mind.

 

[CHAPPERS]

[tweet]1085562364345401344[/tweet]

 

[Bold Seagull]

No. The whole shit show is being orchestrated by the powers that be to make it appear that leaving is just going to be too painful to deliver leading to a new referendum where they hope the country will change its mind.

The same powers that be that orchestrated the referendum in the first place.

 

[KZNSeagull]

[TWEET]1085297084302012416[/TWEET]

Do we have to be wearing our free Paddy Power lucky pants to place that bet?

 

[Is it PotG?]

[TWEET]1085297084302012416[/TWEET]

I've got a tenner @5,000/1 that the end of the world is 2020.

 

[neilbard]

[TWEET]1085297084302012416[/TWEET]

 

[Kaiser_Soze]

Bloody hell. Nearly 300 votes in and the split is 52/48 that we'll leave. Echoes of the original vote.

 

[Jim D]

Bloody hell. Nearly 300 votes in and the split is 52/48 that we'll leave. Echoes of the original vote.

Yes, but in a couple of years time some of those that voted 'Yes' may have changed their mind - or died.

 

[SK1NT]

We will make our own laws.

What EU law is it that you really disagree with? Please don't laugh this off. Name one that is really affecting you and making your life hell.

I personally can only think of a few and they all protect my human rights... which i quite like. Dam that EU for protecting the rights of the smaller person. Avoiding them being taken advantage of by large corporations.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

Why are people conflating the current status of this poll, with the referendum result, to suggest that 'opinions are entrenched / unchanged'??

They ask entirely different questions. I'm massively strongly in favour of Remain, and voted 'We will leave' on this poll - which has nothing whatsoever to do with what people WANT to happen.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

If we show we are coping ... interesting to know what "coping" means. Only a few hundred dead diabetics rather than thousands?

And ...er ... what if we don't? What if it is the catastrophe for us that anyone who knows anything about trade, transport and economics predicts, and therefore it is the EU position that is "strengthened incredibly" (ie. in addition to being at least six times bigger in economic terms when we sit down to talk trade, however things turn out). As an experienced negotiator you have surely considered all the possible outcomes, so how would you negotiate your way out of that?

Just as a matter of interest do you work in one of the sectors that will be seriously affected by no-deal? Livestock farming for example, or manufacturing being carried out in conjunction with EU-based partner companies?

I only ask because we were at a lunch with six other people in December and five of them were all for a no-deal up-yours-Delors exit. The youngest of them was 73; all were retired. The sixth was a teacher. You mention 'short pain' but the pain would only be short if the EU really was suffering more than the UK was - and in all honesty I thought that the likelihood of that happening was put to bed years ago.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

We will leave.

TM will talk to the other parties, take all of the brilliant ideas back to the EU who will laugh and say no. Parliament and the media will continue into overdrive panic mode. No deal preperations will continue. At the beginning of March, Germany will force the rest of the EU to offer an acceptable deal with which we leave.

As far as I can see, last night bounced the ball back into the EU's court. Parliament can come up with whatever ideas it likes but if the EU do not play ball, it will be a waste of time.

They aren't on the pitch, though.

You forget that the deal we have was agreed between May and the EU - it is parliament that has gone and rejected it, and parliament that is now faffing about.

 

[Mtoto]

Just as a matter of interest do you work in one of the sectors that will be seriously affected by no-deal? Livestock farming for example, or manufacturing being carried out in conjunction with EU-based partner companies?

I only ask because we were at a lunch with six other people in December and five of them were all for a no-deal up-yours-Delors exit. The youngest of them was 73; all were retired. The sixth was a teacher. You mention 'short pain' but the pain would only be short if the EU really was suffering more than the UK was - and in all honesty I thought that the likelihood of that happening was put to bed years ago.

Was this to me or to the original post?

 

[lawros left foot]

I know 2 people who voted leave because Turkey was going to join the EU in 2017.


Have they joined yet.?

 

[Bold Seagull]

 

[lawros left foot]

Why are people conflating the current status of this poll, with the referendum result, to suggest that 'opinions are entrenched / unchanged'??

They ask entirely different questions. I'm massively strongly in favour of Remain, and voted 'We will leave' on this poll - which has nothing whatsoever to do with what people WANT to happen.

It’s called DEMOCRACY, you’re not allowed to change your mind.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Aren't you a bit intrigued though? I am?

Grave digger?

Trader of freeze-dried emergency foodstuffs?

Exporter of hand carved Sussex artifacts, hopeful of cashing in on a crippled sterling?

I reckon he [ [MENTION=35196]Is it PotG?[/MENTION] ] is in the rhinoceros suit business and rubbing his hands at the prospect of selling these thick skins to likeminded individuals who will need them as they profit from the great misfortune and misery of others.