[Politics] Brexit

[Two Professors]

Well yes, that's true, but 73% of €3,063,000,000,000 (€3 trillion), is €2,235,990,000,000 - this is the figures they were talking about.

The UK's share of that was €230,000,000,000 - so if the Treasury's own figures are right that this is 73% higher than it would have been in a free trade area but out of the EU, that means we'd lose €97,000,000,000 of trade... and that's just goods (i.e. doesn't include services).

(All figures from the link 5ways gave, and links on that page to support their own article's figures)

Very nice.How right has the Treasury been on anything whatsoever,since they started spouting rubbish in June last year?Possibly,maybe,might,could seems to be their department motto,under a dark cloud full of locusts.

 

[CHAPPERS]

Fair point although I would have thought there are bigger streams of p*ss to worry about. .

That's probably true.

 

[DTES]

Very nice.How right has the Treasury been on anything whatsoever,since they started spouting rubbish in June last year?

Do you mean specifics, or general principles? The general principle that "if something is more expensive, you will sell less of it", doesn't seem particularly controversial to me.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Controlled as in waved people through after looking at their passport. In what way would checking people in and out have reduced the very real pressure on schools and the NHS? As you point out the vast majority work, 'Contributers' use public services as well. Eu migration has increased from under ten thousand to the hundreds of thousands. It's also innacurate to claim immigrants who work automatically = net economic benefit. It depends where they come from and what services they use.

There are over 3 million EU citizens resident here, 2.3 million working. Keeping tabs on all these people (cost?) making sure they all fulfill specific criteria in a fast moving transient job market is nigh on impossible so deporting several thousand (cost?) is hardly going to make a difference.

Reducing net immigration down from hundreds of thousands every year would seem a sensible option if you are concerned about housing prices and availability.

What way will 'Settled Status' help in the future, if it's ever implemented? Net-migration figures being down has occurred by accident rather than design. If it is ever implemented it could end up just being exactly like FOM during The WRS days under a different name with seasonal and unskilled work permits being re-introduced for Non-EU workers to fill the shortfalls. If you're really bothered about immigration, I wouldn't be looking at any party currently in Westminster to sort it out anytime soon.

 

[5ways]

The predicted recession was for after the vote not after we left.




Fair point although I would have thought there are bigger streams of p*ss to worry about. The EU commissioners claiming 500,000 Euros in two months for instance.

Where? Many say the chances of recession have risen sharply.

Do you have any use for experts at all? Doctors, weather forecasters?

 

[Berty23]

Please show us where these tens of billions are being saved then,otherwise you are just talking complete bolox,as usual.And whilst talking about your twaddle,house prices are still going up in most of the country.

Someone else has helpfully shown the data but as usual you will simply say "made up" when in reality there is not a counterfactual which means it is impossible to show anything other than estimates. Can you point to any estimates that say anything other than tens of billions? This is why Dan hannon kept saying we wouldn't leave single market.

Since joking the EU our economy has grown faster than at anytime in our history but of course that is DESPITE the EU.

Haven't most leavers given up on the economy will be better argument now?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

What way will 'Settled Status' help in the future, if it's ever implemented? Net-migration figures being down has occurred by accident rather than design. If it is ever implemented it could end up just being exactly like FOM during The WRS days under a different name with seasonal and unskilled work permits being re-introduced for Non-EU workers to fill the shortfalls. If you're really bothered about immigration, I wouldn't be looking at any party currently in Westminster to sort it out anytime soon.

Probably best to wait and see what specific type of immigration controls we will introduce before analysing their effectiveness in reducing numbers. The recent reduction in immgration numbers is directly linked to our vote to leave which suggests the UK will no longer be seen as a magnet for largescale EU immigration even before any new restrictions are put in place. Time will tell.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Where? Many say the chances of recession have risen sharply.

Do you have any use for experts at all? Doctors, weather forecasters?

Surprised you have already forgotten the Treasury dossier of doom which you championed pre referendum.

“A vote to leave would cause an immediate and profound economic shock creating instability and uncertainty… The central conclusion of the analysis is that the effect of this profound shock would be to push the UK into recession… The analysis shows that the economy would fall into recession with four quarters of negative growth.”

The shock leading to anywhere between -3.6% to - 6% GDP all before we had left.

Project Fear.

George Osborne: “A vote to leave would tip our economy into year-long recession with at least 500,000 UK jobs lost”

Treasury: “UK economy would fall into recession”, predicted 2016 Q3 growth between -0.1% and -1%

IMF: “Brexit would trigger recession”, predicted -0.3% GDP for Q3

OECD: Short term impact of -1.25% GDP

Doctors, weather forecasters yes .. astrologers, mediums, economists/government Brexit predictions not so much.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

This Huge New Study Reveals What The British Public Really Wants From Brexit

Many Remain voters now largely agree that Brexit should mean the UK taking full control over its borders, leaving the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, and paying only a small "divorce bill" to the EU, according to major new academic research.

A groundbreaking project by the London School of Economics and Oxford University surveying more than 20,000 people – which BuzzFeed News has seen exclusively ahead of its official publication – reveals that when the British public are asked in detail what they want from the negotiations, there is more support for harder Brexit options because Leavers and a significant number of Remainers back them...... 67% of respondents would prefer "no deal" to soft Brexit, while 68% would opt for hard over soft Brexit.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamesball/...ted-on-backing?utm_term=.dl7KWjY1G#.ungeLPjJ8

Disappointing findings for those who claim UK public opinion is turning against Brexit.

 

[DTES]

It's true, the economy has not collapsed and we are not in recession. It's also true that the pound did drop off a cliff the day after the referendum (without recovering since), and that the economy, while not in recession, has slowed (2017 growth to date is lower than 2016).

So it's quite correct to say "See, it's got worse, but not as much worse as you predicted", but I don't see that as an argument in favour of Brexit.

 

[DTES]

Disappointing findings for those who claim UK public opinion is turning against Brexit.

Blimey, there are some scary results in there. Whatever your feelings on Brexit, to see >50% of the public wanting a full hard border & customs check on the Irish border is a surprise.

The question is what should the Government do on the details? There's no mandate for a hard border with Ireland (or for leaving the Single Market, for that matter), but should they infer one and do it anyway whatever the cost, even if the majority do want it? Or do we elect them to lead the country and make these decisions for us?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

It's true, the economy has not collapsed and we are not in recession. It's also true that the pound did drop off a cliff the day after the referendum (without recovered since), and that the economy, while not in recession, has slowed (2017 growth to date is lower than 2016).

So it's quite correct to say "See, it's got worse, but not as much worse as you predicted", but I don't see that as an argument in favour of Brexit.

I doubt 'the pound falling and growth down a bit' would have persuaded many people to vote Remain so they went OTT and probably scared quite a few to their side. The findings in that recent poll suggest many remainers now regret they believed the whoppers and/or think the will of the majority should be enacted despite any negative economic impact.

 

[5ways]

This Huge New Study Reveals What The British Public Really Wants From Brexit

Many Remain voters now largely agree that Brexit should mean the UK taking full control over its borders, leaving the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, and paying only a small "divorce bill" to the EU, according to major new academic research.

A groundbreaking project by the London School of Economics and Oxford University surveying more than 20,000 people – which BuzzFeed News has seen exclusively ahead of its official publication – reveals that when the British public are asked in detail what they want from the negotiations, there is more support for harder Brexit options because Leavers and a significant number of Remainers back them...... 67% of respondents would prefer "no deal" to soft Brexit, while 68% would opt for hard over soft Brexit.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamesball/...ted-on-backing?utm_term=.dl7KWjY1G#.ungeLPjJ8

Disappointing findings for those who claim UK public opinion is turning against Brexit.

Looks like we want to have our cake and eat it. If it were so simple.

 

[DTES]

The findings in that recent poll suggest many remainers now regret they believed the whoppers

I wonder how many leavers feel the same way about voting for an extra £350m per week for the NHS.

...the will of the majority should be enacted despite any negative economic impact

"I don't care if it will hurt us, it's what we (narrowly) said we wanted when we voted in a refendum 14 months ago, during the campaigns for which both sides lied to us, so they should do it anyway". Bloody hell.

 

[DTES]

Looks like we want to have our cake and eat it.

Quite. "New poll suggests UK public want free unicorns for everybody". Presumably any minister that didn't provide one of the horny little *******s by the next morning would be labelled a traitor.

 

[ManOfSussex]

A groundbreaking project by the London School of Economics and Oxford University....................................

Are they experts?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Blimey, there are some scary results in there. Whatever your feelings on Brexit, to see >50% of the public wanting a full hard border & customs check on the Irish border is a surprise.

The question is what should the Government do on the details? There's no mandate for a hard border with Ireland (or for leaving the Single Market, for that matter), but should they infer one and do it anyway whatever the cost, even if the majority do want it? Or do we elect them to lead the country and make these decisions for us?

The Brexit issue was nullified/fudged at the last election these poll findings (20,000 sample) suggest it would be very risky for any party to go down the 'soft' Brexit route.

 

[DTES]

The Brexit issue was nullified/fudged at the last election these poll findings (20,000 sample) suggest it would be very risky for any party to go down the 'soft' Brexit route.

Risky for them as a party? Tough shit, their job is to do what's best for the country. If harming the economy isn't a good enough reason to change tack, then neither is their party's vote share.

 

[Two Professors]

Do you mean specifics, or general principles? The general principle that "if something is more expensive, you will sell less of it", doesn't seem particularly controversial to me.

That sounds right to me.The Euroland types can't sell us so much crap because the pound is weak,but we can sell plenty for the same reason.Hurrah for the balance of payments.Is that what you mean?

 

[Two Professors]

Someone else has helpfully shown the data but as usual you will simply say "made up" when in reality there is not a counterfactual which means it is impossible to show anything other than estimates. Can you point to any estimates that say anything other than tens of billions? This is why Dan hannon kept saying we wouldn't leave single market.

Since joking the EU our economy has grown faster than at anytime in our history but of course that is DESPITE the EU.

Haven't most leavers given up on the economy will be better argument now?

I won't say 'made up' at all.It is just someone's best guess,not fact at all.You posted it as fact.We not only can leave the 'single market',or what remains of it next year,we have to leave it to Brexit.