[Politics] Brexit

[Hamilton]

Ben Goldacre. Chemist. Doctor. Realist:

RIGHT.

I tried to ignore the EU referendum but idiots blaming foreigners, for problems we created, made me too cross.

Here are my reasons for voting Remain.

I hope you find them useful.

1. A smaller democracy will not be “more representative”.
The UK government is no more under your control than the EU. Diluting your vote one in 65m or one in 500m amounts to the same thing: no control. You couldn’t get political agreement from the people in one family, one pub, or one bus. You can’t “vote them out”, you’ve never done that, stop pretending you can do it in the future. Politics is about compromise: terrible, soul-destroying, mature compromise with other people, most of whom are awful. Your local council don’t represent your views and values any better than your MEP.

2. Immigration is just going to happen.
In or out of the EU, there will be lots, and lots of immigration: bad luck if you don’t like that. We’re perfectly able to control non-EU immigration, right now, and yet no government ever does. They never will. This is not the fault of the EU, it’s more complicated than that. Deal with it. Immigration will never stop.

3. “Straining” schools, waiting lists, and hospitals are your fault.
This is not the fault of the EU. It’s your fault. It’s happened slowly. The UK has failed to build houses, failed to train hospital staff, failed to invest in the NHS, failed to build schools. Your country. Your UK. Your government. Your fault. Nobody else. The NHS is staffed by immigrants, they keep it running, they will save your life and build your house. Don’t try to blame them for things that are your fault.

4. The EU is a good shot at preserving peace.
Remember that news story about the British generals who think we should leave the EU because NATO preserves peace, not the EU? These are bad generals who only know about guns. Russia right now is an odd, aggressive country. But they didn’t show up at the Ukrainian border with tanks, out of the blue: they manufactured a social and economic pretext before they rolled in. A strong EU makes this kind of pretext harder to contrive. You want to be good close friends with all your neighbours, and their neighbours, as far as the eye can see. That’s how you hold a line that preserves peace: by sharing friendship, sharing trade, and sharing grumbles about crap admin in Brussels. You do not preserve peace by buying and using weapons.

5. Brexit use language that’s targeted at losers.
The Brexit campaign talk about “taking control”, about “building an optimistic future” for yourself. These are things you say to losers: to people who feel they have no control, or a gloomy future. It’s the language of crap self-help books in airport bookshops. You are better than that.

6. Countries come and go.
Right now, people talk about Eastern Europeans like they’re biologically destined to be parasites, because their countries are poorer, and some of their citizens travel for work. That could change, really fast. Polish people are not a biologically inferior race: they lived under communism for four decades, and now they’re catching up. Poland has the fastest growing economy in Europe (faster than Central Europe, faster than the EU-15). Warsaw is full of skyscrapers. Be nice. Make friends now. Cement those ties to a large, fast growing European economy with a rich cultural history.

7. Brexit will hurt the economy.
This means your children and neighbours. Stop pretending you don’t care. Just vote remain. It’s boring, there’s nothing awesome about it, but sometimes you have to take a break from useful productive work to stop idiots breaking things.

Ben Goldacre

This.

Can I also pick up on point 5. It is incredibly misleading of the Leave campaign to attack Remainers for 'not believing in our country.' I believe in our country passionately. I believe we can and do make a Great contribution. I believe in our values of tolerance, fairness, freedom. I know we can continue to make a great contribution within the EU. It's because I believe in the potential of this country that I am not prepared to walk away from something that is very much in our interests.

So, Mr Johnson, you are not the only one that thinks Britain is great and believes that we can. You are however misguided in your view that the interests of our country are better served being isolated outside of the EU.

 

[beorhthelm]

Campaign could be more positive sure but I really don't think it is fear of the unknown. Imagine you're hopping on the Eurostar to enjoy the free movement of people and 10 engineers come up to you. "Sir, 9 of us agree that if you get on this train there is a excellent, in fact, probable chance that it will at best be delayed by some hours and at worse it will derail."

if 9 engineers suggested that, then the service would be taken out of service as unsafe - you wouldn't have an option. is the risk of leaving really so severe, yet they gave us a choice? anyway, engineering != economics, as well covered, economics cannot experiment or empirically prove their theory, and use models with inherent bias and omissions to suit their objectives. as said to deaf ears, the consensus in late 2008 (yes after the start) was that the banking crisis would lead to a drop in growth, not full blown recession across the western world.

 

[beorhthelm]

There's panic because we didn't think there'd be enough people out there believing the awful rhetoric enough to get the Leave vote any where near 50%. It's frightening.

some honesty on the matter.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Ha ha this made me laugh, nothing to do with the EU, but I suspect there are enough people voting that would fulfil the role in this story...

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Come off it. It is not about talking down the UK. You're tacitly implying remainers are traitors at worse and unpatriotic at best. It is not a doomsday scenario. It is what has very clearly been laid out by numerous economic studies and basically the entire economics professions. It is already happening too, the pound has taken a hit, and billions of pounds of wealth has left the UK in recent weeks.

It is actually the braver and more patriotic thing to do and say, yes, on balance I will pool sovereignty with our European allies because I don't want people to lose their jobs, I don't want a weaker economy that will damage the NHS, I don't want further austerity because tax receipts dive. It's fine if you're Boris, or a millionaire, or a billionaire like James Dyson who has moved thousands of manufacturing jobs abroad. It is the poorest that will suffer the most if we leave.

As most of your posts are based on the assumption that the best our country (worlds 5th biggest economy, fourth biggest Military power, permanent UN Security council seat, major player in NATO) can do is 'survive' outside the EU then I would say that could be fairly described as talking down the UK.

For pool see surrender, power only ever goes in one direction with the EU.. it leaves these shores. This referndum is the only chance we have of stopping this process.

Stay in the EU for the poor when it is the low skilled and poorest who are most directly effected by reduced wages and increased pressures on limited services. Stay in an institution which is at least partly responsible for inflicting mass youth unemployment and austerity on member states .. no thanks.

 

[Hamilton]

It is actually the braver and more patriotic thing to do and say, yes, on balance I will pool sovereignty with our European allies because I don't want people to lose their jobs, I don't want a weaker economy that will damage the NHS, I don't want further austerity because tax receipts dive.

I agree with everything you have said, but on this point, can I add something?

It's a common misconception - and claim from the leave camp - that we have given up our sovereignty. We have not. Sovereignty resides with our UK parliament. At any time, Parliament can choose to vote to leave the EU. They don't need a referendum to do so. The ultimate power sits with the UK parliament. That is the case and will always be the case. We have chosen to cede some powers to the EU, but this is always temporary. At anytime, our elected MPs can choose to vote to leave the EU. This is the biggest lie that the Leave camp push - that we have lost control to Brussels. We haven't. Ultimate control sits in the UK. Our MPs have chosen - because three quarters of them all agree - to stay in the EU because they believe it is in our best interests.

So sadly for us we “Brits” actually have the power that the Leave camp want its just unfortunate that the “majority” of those with that sovereign power (ONLY in marginal seats of course so hardly real democracy) chose to get their ideas from tax dodging foreigners who own our most read daily rags! The same rags that are loving the fact that politicians are being given a bloody nose.

As I say, I'm just building on your point.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

So, Mr Johnson, you are not the only one that thinks Britain is great and believes that we can. You are however misguided in your view that the interests of our country are better served being isolated outside of the EU.

Can I pull you up on this point [MENTION=225]Hamilton[/MENTION]

Mr Johnson no more believes that the 'interests of our country' are better served by a Leave vote, than you or I. He's interested pure and simple in the interests of Boris Johnson.

He was staunchly pro-EU until the prospect of a de facto leadership contest crystalized. He is nothing but a blatant opportunist on a cynical power grab, and to hell with the consequences for the nation.

I am gobsmacked that he has been given such an easy ride over his volte face.

 

[Hamilton]

if 9 engineers suggested that, then the service would be taken out of service as unsafe - you wouldn't have an option. is the risk of leaving really so severe, yet they gave us a choice? anyway, engineering != economics, as well covered, economics cannot experiment or empirically prove their theory, and use models with inherent bias and omissions to suit their objectives. as said to deaf ears, the consensus in late 2008 (yes after the start) was that the banking crisis would lead to a drop in growth, not full blown recession across the western world.

The Tory party promised the choice of a referendum in order to lance its own EU boil. In doing so, they have dragged the rest of us into the fight.

 

[5ways]

if 9 engineers suggested that, then the service would be taken out of service as unsafe - you wouldn't have an option. is the risk of leaving really so severe, yet they gave us a choice? anyway, engineering != economics, as well covered, economics cannot experiment or empirically prove their theory, and use models with inherent bias and omissions to suit their objectives. as said to deaf ears, the consensus in late 2008 (yes after the start) was that the banking crisis would lead to a drop in growth, not full blown recession across the western world.

Their objectives I think are a strong and thriving economy, but I will have to seek advice from actual economists to make sure [MENTION=31]El Presidente[/MENTION] [MENTION=5208]drew[/MENTION].

 

[Hamilton]

Can I pull you up on this point [MENTION=225]Hamilton[/MENTION]

Mr Johnson no more believes that the 'interests of our country' are better served by a Leave vote, than you or I. He's interested pure and simple in the interests of Boris Johnson.

He was staunchly pro-EU until the prospect of a de facto leadership contest crystalized. He is nothing but a blatant opportunist on a cynical power grab, and to hell with the consequences for the nation.

I am gobsmacked that he has been given such an easy ride over his volte face.

Delighted to be pulled up.

Boris is playing a political game. He's got his eye on Number 10 and once there he'll look at some way of doing a U-turn. But that is one dangerous game to play.

 

[Mo Gosfield]

Please. Of course we all think the UK can survive outside the EU but we will not be as strong. We will be weakened almost immediately when the pound gets trashed, in 5 years due to chronic uncertainty, 10 years when our new trade deal with the EU is worse than the one we had before, 15 years when international investment has been diverted from the UK to Europe and in 30 years where cumulatively a weaker economy costs each family thousands of pounds.

I wouldn't be confident about predicting the future of the EU in 15 or especially in 30 years time.
The remain campaign are talking as if the EU is going to be around in perpetuity. It isn't. It will crash and burn. The signs are already there. No corrupt organisation with no internal fiscal control can carry on ad infinitum. Eventually, they will be called to account and everyone will find that there is no accountability.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Can I pull you up on this point [MENTION=225]Hamilton[/MENTION]

Mr Johnson no more believes that the 'interests of our country' are better served by a Leave vote, than you or I. He's interested pure and simple in the interests of Boris Johnson.

He was staunchly pro-EU until the prospect of a de facto leadership contest crystalized. He is nothing but a blatant opportunist on a cynical power grab, and to hell with the consequences for the nation.

I am gobsmacked that he has been given such an easy ride over his volte face.

The Tory party promised the choice of a referendum in order to lance its own EU boil. In doing so, they have dragged the rest of us into the fight.

This, this and thrice this.

 

[5ways]

I agree with everything you have said, but on this point, can I add something?

It's a common misconception - and claim from the leave camp - that we have given up our sovereignty. We have not. Sovereignty resides with our UK parliament. At any time, Parliament can choose to vote to leave the EU. They don't need a referendum to do so. The ultimate power sits with the UK parliament. That is the case and will always be the case. We have chosen to cede some powers to the EU, but this is always temporary. At anytime, our elected MPs can choose to vote to leave the EU. This is the biggest lie that the Leave camp push - that we have lost control to Brussels. We haven't. Ultimate control sits in the UK. Our MPs have chosen - because three quarters of them all agree - to stay in the EU because they believe it is in our best interests.

So sadly for us we “Brits” actually have the power that the Leave camp want its just unfortunate that the “majority” of those with that sovereign power (ONLY in marginal seats of course so hardly real democracy) chose to get their ideas from tax dodging foreigners who own our most read daily rags! The same rags that are loving the fact that politicians are being given a bloody nose.

As I say, I'm just building on your point.

Yes exactly, this is why we 'pool' sovereignty. It is not taken from us but a decision made voluntarily which can be reversed at any time with a simple act of Parliament. Similarly we 'pool' sovereignty by signing up to the Nuclear Test Ban treaty but I don't suggest reclaiming our sovereign right to test nuclear weapons either.

 

[Billy the Fish]

Can I also pick up on point 5. It is incredibly misleading of the Leave campaign to attack Remainers for 'not believing in our country.' I believe in our country passionately. I believe we can and do make a Great contribution. I believe in our values of tolerance, fairness, freedom. I know we can continue to make a great contribution within the EU. It's because I believe in the potential of this country that I am not prepared to walk away from something that is very much in our interests.

So, Mr Johnson, you are not the only one that thinks Britain is great and believes that we can. You are however misguided in your view that the interests of our country are better served being isolated outside of the EU.

It's equally misleading for the remain campaign to suggest that we are cutting all of our links with the EU. How many analogies have they come up with? "Pulling up the drawbridge" "Lock ourselves in and peer out the curtains". Norway and Switzerland aren't viewed as isolated hermit countries are they?

This is where the debate gets so mixed up. I'm voting out and I believe in all the things you've stated, I just don't see them as being exclusive to members of the EU. I'm not even anti EU per se - just anti the EU in it's current form, post Lisbon treaty.

I tend to ignore the whole debate now, but it is boring having to explain to everyone that just because I'm voting out it doesn't mean my views are represented by the Brexit campaign.

 

[Bold Seagull]

It's equally misleading for the remain campaign to suggest that we are cutting all of our links with the EU. How many analogies have they come up with? "Pulling up the drawbridge" "Lock ourselves in and peer out the curtains". Norway and Switzerland aren't viewed as isolated hermit countries are they?

No, their deals with the EU are on worse terms than ours, they have to accept EU free movement, and each of the 4 EFTA states accept not only free movement, but are in the Schengen zone. They have to embrace all of those in order to negotiate their own deals, and in doing so still have no say in EU policy making.

 

[Hamilton]

It's equally misleading for the remain campaign to suggest that we are cutting all of our links with the EU. How many analogies have they come up with? "Pulling up the drawbridge" "Lock ourselves in and peer out the curtains". Norway and Switzerland aren't viewed as isolated hermit countries are they?

This is where the debate gets so mixed up. I'm voting out and I believe in all the things you've stated, I just don't see them as being exclusive to members of the EU. I'm not even anti EU per se - just anti the EU in it's current form, post Lisbon treaty.

I tend to ignore the whole debate now, but it is boring having to explain to everyone that just because I'm voting out it doesn't mean my views are represented by the Brexit campaign.

Well, I would plead with you not to do that. I'd ask you to consider the opportunity we have inside the EU and the benefits that can bring. We have and can be a successful contributor to the EU and we can benefit from membership. We need to hold our own elected officials to account for policies that can build prosperity inside the UK. That lies at the door of UK Parliament. At present we're using the EU as a whipping boy, when in fact the austerity measures and the taxation policies that control our spend and receipts are governed by our own UK politicians.

There is strength in unity, collaboration and coming together. That's where we can find true lasting benefit to the UK.

I hope you change your mind. All the best.

 

[5ways]

As most of your posts are based on the assumption that the best our country (worlds 5th biggest economy, fourth biggest Military power, permanent UN Security council seat, major player in NATO) can do is 'survive' outside the EU then I would say that could be fairly described as talking down the UK.

For pool see surrender, power only ever goes in one direction with the EU.. it leaves these shores. This referndum is the only chance we have of stopping this process.

Stay in the EU for the poor when it is the low skilled and poorest who are most directly effected by reduced wages and increased pressures on limited services. Stay in an institution which is at least partly responsible for inflicting mass youth unemployment and austerity on member states .. no thanks.

I am thinking about the next generation too. We the 5th biggest economy in terms of total assets but in terms of actual economic activity we are a smaller economy than India or Indonesia. Both gigantic countries. The rest of the world is playing catch-up with us, very quickly. When I was born the UK economy dwarfed the Chinese economy - which is really insane when you think about it. When I think about the future of the UK it will slowly and naturally become less powerful internationally as other economies of demographic scale get larger. How do we preserve a Western way of life without Western economic dominance? For me you do this by writing the rules and getting advantageous free trade deals. The EU, US, and China can look at each other as equals. I want to be at the top table.

It is not about talking down the UK it is about being rational about how to best act in the national interest. That is working in concert with other like-minded states in a rapidly changing world. It is not a bed of roses but we have to fight for every scrap of influence we can.

 

[Billy the Fish]

No, their deals with the EU are on worse terms than ours, they have to accept EU free movement, and each of the 4 EFTA states accept not only free movement, but are in the Schengen zone. They have to embrace all of those in order to negotiate their own deals, and in doing so still have no say in EU policy making.

But what about their trade deals to the rest of the world? They will be negotiated and tailored to their own economic circumstances in mind.

I'm in favour of free movement so no problem there.

 

[Hamilton]

I wouldn't be confident about predicting the future of the EU in 15 or especially in 30 years time.
The remain campaign are talking as if the EU is going to be around in perpetuity. It isn't. It will crash and burn. The signs are already there. No corrupt organisation with no internal fiscal control can carry on ad infinitum. Eventually, they will be called to account and everyone will find that there is no accountability.

Do you not elect your MEPs?

Do you not elect an MP?

Does the government - formed as a result of the election you are a part of - not select its Commissioner?

You probably object to the unelected EU officials, but our own government is full of them as well. they are called civil servants and they pretty much run government. But you don't elect them.

You don't elect the Governor of the Bank of England. You don't elect the Chair of OfCom or any of the UK regulators. Do you want to? Why are we not using the same arguments against the EU to attack our own unelected bureaucrats? I think it's because we've just lost sight of the fact that this is the way that large organisations operate, and will always be the case.

That does not mean they should not be reformed. Of course, reform is easier if one remains inside a structure.

 

[Hamilton]

But what about their trade deals to the rest of the world? They will be negotiated and tailored to their own economic circumstances in mind.

I'm in favour of free movement so no problem there.

But we don't have those trade deals in place. We're working on them slowly and surely, but they take time.

Doing business in the Middle East for example is very tricky. It's not like doing business in the EU where trading partners can be held to account. There's little accountability. Often stuff is set up in good faith. Across the EU, it's governed. That brings a bit more certainty.