[Politics] Brexit

[Lincoln Imp]

Well it wont effect them if, as I suspect there isnt a sustained run on our currency exclusively due to Brexit, but it seems premature to look for proof of impending doom on daily market shifts.

You're right about reading too much into daily market shifts but I was thinking rather more of the 20 odd per cent over the past three months. (Out of interest, are you saying that if there is, say a large fall in the value of the pound it won't have any effect on prices and other indicators if it only lasts for a few months?)

 

[Gwylan]

Well if he supports continued membership of the single market and associated freedom of movement then he is probably in a majority - everyone who voted Remain backed that and if getting on for 10 per cent of those who voted Leave thought the same then Bingo! - we have a consensus.

i reckon it was higher than 10 percent, but of course, we won't know for sure as the question was too binary. But even it were as low as five percent, that's still a majority

 

[BigGully]

What am I clutching at? I have said working class people who voted Brexit will (which implies in the future) have made a mistake, and I stand by that. If you live hand to mouth then it stands to reason you will be impacted by things like heating, fuel and food going up in price, this is inevitable because of uncertainty and is a direct result of Brexit.

Again for your forecast to be accurate you have to assume that sterling will continue at a level that prompts the outcomes you suggest, however if it recovers to a sustainable and favourable level (which by all accounts was lower than pre referendum level anyhow) then it doesnt follow that inflationary pressures will necessarily effect them.

Similarly fuel will be dictated by I presume, sterlings value against the dollar and ultimately the price of a barrel of oil that seemingly is effected by a multitude of reasons other than Brexit.

Once again I cannot recall any Remainers highliting the impending sterling crisis that they now see, it seems its just a snippet of bad news that you now proclaim was always bound to happen, you're waiting for a perfect storm and will continue to scour for any negative economic data that will somehow justify your continued Brexit denial.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Cheif exec of Next and prominent leave campaigned has said

"I think the hard, soft Brexit language is unhelpful, and what we should be talking about is whether we have an ‘open’ or ‘closed’ Brexit.

Britain voted for independence, it didn’t vote for isolation and so we have a choice: are we going to choose to build an open, global-facing economy, or one that’s closed and isolated?

If we choose the latter, then our economy is finished. If we choose the former, we stand a chance of flourishing greatly."

Jesus he might be the first sensible Brexiteer.

Don't be silly. Don't make the mistake that the view he expressed was unusual. Dislike for the failing institution that is the EU should not be mistaken for distain for Europe, it's culture and it's wonderful people. We are all European after all. It should not mean economic isolation. This country was built on free trade principles (okay and a lot of extremely bad exploitation) so free trade is in our DNA. Britain can be successful out of the union, but we need a lot of work to ensure that happens, both in mending political bridges caused by Brexit and also in forging new opportunities on the world stage.

 

[BigGully]

You're right about reading too much into daily market shifts but I was thinking rather more of the 20 odd per cent over the past three months. (Out of interest, are you saying that if there is, say a large fall in the value of the pound it won't have any effect on prices and other indicators if it only lasts for a few months?)

I am not lost on the dynamic of a weak pound, but I just am not yet willing to accept that a brief weakening of it is something that will be ongoing due to Brexit.

Currency values will always effect the purchase price of goods and services made at anyone time at whatever the rate the buyer accessed, it seems there is a more favourable level that was below pre referendum levels but not as low as recent events, so it does offset some of the falls but no-one seems able to offer that precise value.

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

Don't be silly. Don't make the mistake that the view he expressed was unusual. Dislike for the failing institution that is the EU should not be mistaken for distain for Europe, it's culture and it's wonderful people. We are all European after all. It should not mean economic isolation. This country was built on free trade principles (okay and a lot of extremely bad exploitation) so free trade is in our DNA. Britain can be successful out of the union, but we need a lot of work to ensure that happens, both in mending political bridges caused by Brexit and also in forging new opportunities on the world stage.

That is in response to the three Brexit clowns who are leading the negotiations, as soon as possible they need to confirm that we will remain in the single market and set out their plans for negotiating trade deals outside of the EU. That would singularly remove a lot of the economic concern about Brexit, however they and May seem to be taking us down an isolationist route because they are being influenced by the xenophobic right of the party.

 

[Hastings gull]

That is in response to the three Brexit clowns who are leading the negotiations, as soon as possible they need to confirm that we will remain in the single market and set out their plans for negotiating trade deals outside of the EU. That would singularly remove a lot of the economic concern about Brexit, however they and May seem to be taking us down an isolationist route because they are being influenced by the xenophobic right of the party.[/QUOTE]

I think the use of the expression "they seem to be" says a lot, namely that you do not really know if what you are posting is true - just what you want to believe.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

i reckon it was higher than 10 percent, but of course, we won't know for sure as the question was too binary. But even it were as low as five percent, that's still a majority

You're right - I was just being conservative. Unfortunately, that's a bit of a dirty word - the party has been taken over by the headbangers and with Labour in chaos they can afford to ignore who they like. For the moment.

 

[Diego Napier]

I've been trying to stay off these threads

You should've maintained your resolve.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

I am not lost on the dynamic of a weak pound, but I just am not yet willing to accept that a brief weakening of it is something that will be ongoing due to Brexit.

Currency values will always effect the purchase price of goods and services made at anyone time at whatever the rate the buyer accessed, it seems there is a more favourable level that was below pre referendum levels but not as low as recent events, so it does offset some of the falls but no-one seems able to offer that precise value.

Maybe it's me but much of your second paragraph seems a bit garbled - I shall keep working on it. And with respect your first paragraph looks like an extreme case of wishful thinking. The pound hit the buffers the day after the Referendum and has sunk pretty steadily ever since. The general consensus is that the currency will remain weak for at least as long as Brexit uncertainty continues and perhaps longer and everyone agrees that inflation will rise as a result. To describe this situation as a brief weakening which may not be due to Brexit looks suspiciously like defend-your-position-at-all-costs hokum to me. Sorry.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Don't be silly. Don't make the mistake that the view he expressed was unusual. Dislike for the failing institution that is the EU should not be mistaken for distain for Europe, it's culture and it's wonderful people. We are all European after all. It should not mean economic isolation. This country was built on free trade principles (okay and a lot of extremely bad exploitation) so free trade is in our DNA. Britain can be successful out of the union, but we need a lot of work to ensure that happens, both in mending political bridges caused by Brexit and also in forging new opportunities on the world stage.

Warm words at the end there but they're the easy bit. The point surely is that Woolfson, a well-known Leave campaigner, is signalling the dangers of the sort of Brexit being favoured by the ideologues with the apparent support of the prime minister.

 

[BigGully]

Maybe it's me but much of your second paragraph seems a bit garbled - I shall keep working on it. And with respect your first paragraph looks like an extreme case of wishful thinking. The pound hit the buffers the day after the Referendum and has sunk pretty steadily ever since. The general consensus is that the currency will remain weak for at least as long as Brexit uncertainty continues and perhaps longer and everyone agrees that inflation will rise as a result. To describe this situation as a brief weakening which may not be due to Brexit looks suspiciously like defend-your-position-at-all-costs hokum to me. Sorry.

Yes it was a little wordy, sorry.

My main point on the exchange rate that of course at a certain rate it can trigger inflationary pressures whilst at a certain point it might help the economy overall again it seems accepted that the pound had always needed a readjustment from where it was.

I think it's worth noting that it doesnt always immediately stream down to the shop shelves, retailers can use different strategies to keep prices down.

Again I must mention that I cannot recall any Remainers particularly mentioning the vulnerability of sterling, it has been a scatter gun approach that just about everything that can go wrong will do and waiting for any snippets of bad news to then say we told you so.

You wait sterling will rally and then there will be a glitch with the FTSE, or another market indicator to take its place and Remainers will start again, when actually globally there have been significant economic issues throughout the world irrespective of Brexit.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Warm words at the end there but they're the easy bit. The point surely is that Woolfson, a well-known Leave campaigner, is signalling the dangers of the sort of Brexit being favoured by the ideologues with the apparent support of the prime minister.

I am no expert on economics not am I a politician. However I don't need to be either of those things to see the damage the result has done to the country. I am speaking about the damage between us socially rather than economically. I honestly think the result should be left alone, that will help some of the healing process. However I can understand distrust of the government, I don't trust them myself. But I am sincere in my view that we need to move on from the referendum result and try to make the best from what remains.

 

[ROSM]

i reckon it was higher than 10 percent, but of course, we won't know for sure as the question was too binary. But even it were as low as five percent, that's still a majority

Indeed. I saw a survey today that showed that 5% or leavers now regret their vote whilst 1% of remainers regret theirs (wonder if Jeremy corbyn was surveyed...)

That would have been more than enough to have swayed the result.

More fool Cameron for giving a referendum where the option was to leap a wall which nobody knew what was on the other side

 

[beorhthelm]

That is in response to the three Brexit clowns who are leading the negotiations, as soon as possible they need to confirm that we will remain in the single market and set out their plans for negotiating trade deals outside of the EU. That would singularly remove a lot of the economic concern about Brexit, however they and May seem to be taking us down an isolationist route because they are being influenced by the xenophobic right of the party.

not just you but a number of people seem to be holding this view - is it simply partisan political bias? please explain how is the desire to trade with the whole world, rather than focus on trade with immediate neighbours, isolationist or xenophobic? it just doesnt make any sense to accuse the brexit ministers of this.
also, to the first part, we cant ask say we want to remain in the single market and then negotiate trade with others outside the EU. one of the rules of being "in" the single market is that you follow the single market trade rules, and they dictate how you trade with the non-EU world. its sort of the whole point, its essentially a protectionist cabal joined together at the expense of indepedent trade. (with good reason: otherwise you could act as a entry point for all the external trade, bypassing their rules on tariffs and quotas.).

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Indeed. I saw a survey today that showed that 5% or leavers now regret their vote whilst 1% of remainers regret theirs (wonder if Jeremy corbyn was surveyed...)

That would have been more than enough to have swayed the result.

More fool Cameron for giving a referendum where the option was to leap a wall which nobody knew what was on the other side

Out of interest, where is the survey? Had a quick Google and couldn't find it.

 

[pastafarian]

That is in response to the three Brexit clowns who are leading the negotiations, as soon as possible they need to confirm that we will remain in the single market and set out their plans for negotiating trade deals outside of the EU. That would singularly remove a lot of the economic concern about Brexit, however they and May seem to be taking us down an isolationist route because they are being influenced by the xenophobic right of the party.

The "three clowns" cant confirm now that we will remain in the single market with the same preferential terms. It would be a ludicrous statement to make and impossible to back up.
Team EU, who might have different ideas havnt even sat down at the negotiating table yet. All they can say now is exactly what they are saying , we will continue to trade with the European market (like countries all over the globe do) when we leave, and negotiate the best trade terms possible(taking into account we are leaving) that are in Britains best interests.
Considering you recognise yourself we will be looking to other markets globally after we have gone how on earth is this isolationist…..its the exact opposite.

 

[pastafarian]

Why is it important to you? In which way has Brussels had a direct detrimental affect on your life? Have you been made poorer? Has your life been threatened, or made shorter or your health impaired? Do you have less freedom of choice within the UK or abroad? Has your employment been threatened or have you lost your job? Has your quality of life been diminished? Are you less secure, have you been faced with the threat of losing your home or it's value being diminished?

You're obviously extremely anti-EU. You started this conversation by selecting and challenging one sentence from a detailed response I made to another poster

by stating
but you've yet to substantiate it's importance, other than something insubstantial about not knowing who to lobby if you ever took it on yourself to create an action group so that you could change an EU law.

Its important as I strongly believe in the whole concept of redress of grievance that we have with regard to our parliamentary system, it is fundamental to the relationship between the elected and the elector.
This process breaks down when it hits matters concerning legislation that is influenced from EU. That cant be right. The only way to address this imbalance is to return more law making decisions to westminster from Europe. I cant think why you believe the process of redress is not important.

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

It’s not pedantry to highlight that fact that you have called someone “stupid and daft” on the basis of something they haven’t said, that you have made up and attributed to them.

Ironically it’s you who looks stupid and daft (on top of most of your Brexit drivelling).

# still sulking
regards
DR

 

[drew]

Out of interest, where is the survey? Had a quick Google and couldn't find it.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...gret-bregret-choice-in-millions-a7113336.html

Wasn't hard