[Politics] Brexit

[Triggaaar]

Do you mean exactly the same as we have now?

Soft brexit would mean free access, as we have now.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Soft brexit would mean free access, as we have now.

Ah which can only realistically be achieved if we keep free movement, keep EU law overriding our law, continue paying a yearly multi billion £ fee etc which I would suggest rather negates the point of the referendum result.

#takebackcontrol?

 

[Triggaaar]

Ah which can only realistically be achieved if we keep free movement, keep EU law overriding our law, continue paying a yearly multi billion £ fee etc

Very possibly, although we can't know for sure what deal will be done. I imagine there would be some small, but maybe significant differences.

which I would suggest rather negates the point of the referendum result.

I'm sure many who voted to leave would agree, that such a deal would negate their vote. Many would not though.

Personally, I'd like free access to the market and free movement of people. I am, however, against the way the EU operates, the lack of accountability, the treatment of Greece, the totally unfair common agricultural policy, the blatant disregard for the rules, like how the Spanish are allowed to ignore the fishing quotas, the corruption, etc etc. I understand that remainers would say the good outweighed the bad, but I felt like we'd only ever have one chance to get off the ride and I didn't like where the ride was going. I feel that we've not been treated well by the EU, the comparative lack of corruption in the UK is at odds with much of Europe, and had we voted to stay it would have been an open invite to the EU to strap us over a barrel and **** us for eternity.

I accept that my views (choice to leave) are in the minority on NSC, and in the minority among my friends, but there it is.

 

[Gwylan]

Personally, I'd like free access to the market and free movement of people. I am, however, against the way the EU operates, the lack of accountability, the treatment of Greece, the totally unfair common agricultural policy, the blatant disregard for the rules, like how the Spanish are allowed to ignore the fishing quotas, the corruption, etc etc. I understand that remainers would say the good outweighed the bad, but I felt like we'd only ever have one chance to get off the ride and I didn't like where the ride was going. I feel that we've not been treated well by the EU, the comparative lack of corruption in the UK is at odds with much of Europe, and had we voted to stay it would have been an open invite to the EU to strap us over a barrel and **** us for eternity.

I accept that my views (choice to leave) are in the minority on NSC, and in the minority among my friends, but there it is.

I pretty much agree with all of this. I had absolutely no problem with the single market or free movement of people but had lots against the EU as an institution. We have no idea how many leavers felt the same but I reckon there were significant numbers

 

[pastafarian]

As far as I can tell soft Brexit means trying to retain our current membership of/access to the single market, which almost certainly means free movement continuing and having to abide by ECJ law (only half/ not really leaving?).:

Is this really what some are passing for a Soft Brexit?

Keep free movement
Remain under the control of ECJ and EU law
Remain in the single market

why don’t the people pushing for this version of soft brexit hold up their hands and admit this simply means NO Brexit at all.

 

[Jim in the West]

they dont unless inflation starts to increase. they have the least exposure to currency as their main expenditure is rent, energy and food, which fluctuate little with currency. those frequently buying consumer goods from abroad will be affected the most.

I think you'll find that energy and food are impacted massively by currency. Oil is traded in dollars. The gas price moves with oil, and the electricity price moves with gas. The biggest input cost of food is energy (either in the making or transportation). We also import much of our food.

 

[Jim in the West]

Very possibly, although we can't know for sure what deal will be done. I imagine there would be some small, but maybe significant differences.

I'm sure many who voted to leave would agree, that such a deal would negate their vote. Many would not though.

Personally, I'd like free access to the market and free movement of people. I am, however, against the way the EU operates, the lack of accountability, the treatment of Greece, the totally unfair common agricultural policy, the blatant disregard for the rules, like how the Spanish are allowed to ignore the fishing quotas, the corruption, etc etc. I understand that remainers would say the good outweighed the bad, but I felt like we'd only ever have one chance to get off the ride and I didn't like where the ride was going. I feel that we've not been treated well by the EU, the comparative lack of corruption in the UK is at odds with much of Europe, and had we voted to stay it would have been an open invite to the EU to strap us over a barrel and **** us for eternity.

I accept that my views (choice to leave) are in the minority on NSC, and in the minority among my friends, but there it is.

Some good points there, and I understand your perspective. However, I don't accept that we have a "comparative lack of corruption". We just do it in a different way - the honours system, the jobs for the boys, etc, etc. If you read Private Eye it will make you weep - there is so much "corruption" in the UK it is unbelievable.

 

[Triggaaar]

However, I don't accept that we have a "comparative lack of corruption". We just do it in a different way - the honours system, the jobs for the boys, etc, etc.

I certainly agree about jobs for the boys, it's a disgrace. But I don't see that, or the honours system, as comparable with the corruption in much of Europe. I know I'm no expert on it though, so I could be wrong, it's just what I think.

 

[studio150]

I certainly agree about jobs for the boys, it's a disgrace. But I don't see that, or the honours system, as comparable with the corruption in much of Europe. I know I'm no expert on it though, so I could be wrong, it's just what I think.

Gongs for press people who support the Government, and awards for people who donate to party funds, but course honours are not able to be purchased or to repay favours.

 

[Diego Napier]

He chose to move to and gain citizenship of a country that wouldn't accept the terms he's telling us that we should accept , your above arguments are meaningless and bear no similarity to what he has done i.e. Leave his original residence for somewhere new , then start lecturing those left behind how they should live their lives, , his stance is a typical labour on of "do as I say , not as I do " .

Well, lets try to help you make a little more meaning of it all by spelling it out.

Firstly, the simple one-off trading relationship formalised by the NAFTA agreement is radically different to the complex relationship forged between the EU countries through a series of treaties spread over 60 years, the later most importantly from the UK's perspective, single European act, Maastricht, Amsterdam and Lisbon. NAFTA = trade only. EU = peace, trade, co-operation, open borders, free movement of workers, freedom of cross-border education, justice, environment, medicine, economic, human rights etc. etc. For you to suggest or even imply they are comparable relationships is just plain daft. America has a fractious history with Mexico and with their Mafia/drugs/immigration problems For you to suggest or even imply that they have the kind of close relationships that have developed within the EU is just plain daft.

Secondly, his chosen country of residence has no bearing on the value of his opinion, regardless of the reason for his choice. You're not dense, dismissing his opinion out of hand as "typical labour" is just being wilfully obtuse.

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

Yes, he might have meant to say that, but his point about 'hard brexit' got lost in the idea that 37% shouldn't determine our future. Of course they should, if that's the majority of voters. But I do agree with the point that although we have to leave (as per the result) it doesn't have to be a hard exit.

Harder the better in the long term , take the medicine you'll soon feel better
regards
DR

 

[beorhthelm]

I think you'll find that energy and food are impacted massively by currency. Oil is traded in dollars. The gas price moves with oil, and the electricity price moves with gas. The biggest input cost of food is energy (either in the making or transportation). We also import much of our food.

this is true if your in manufacture, however the significant margins buffer the consumer. less so with energy, though here long term contracts and hedging smooth out the prices. it will filter through in inflation to a increase of a % over a year. meanwhile higher priced products that are shipped from overseas will be increasing in price 5, 10, 15% since June.

 

[larus]

I think you'll find that energy and food are impacted massively by currency. Oil is traded in dollars. The gas price moves with oil, and the electricity price moves with gas. The biggest input cost of food is energy (either in the making or transportation). We also import much of our food.

The biggest cost of energy (petrol/transportation) is taxation in the UK. Look at the huge drop in oil from circa $150/barrel to $50/barrel. The change to pump prices is from say £1.45 (approx guess) to £1.10. So, strip out refining costs, retail costs/profit etc, then you're back to the raw cost plus tax. Look at the breakdown of the pump price and see, in realtive terms, how little an impact the change on a few percent makes on pump prices.

So, the 10% change in £ v $ is not massive against that backdrop. Also, the fundamentals of our economy are sound, much better than most of Europe, but this doesn't fit in with the scare stories from the Remain side. Compared to what we were warned would happen to our economy after a BREXIT vote (not when BREXIT takes effect), this slight adjustment caused mainly by uncertainty (as it's not backed by the economic statistics since the vote, which have been much stronger than projected) is a minor effect. How many times do we get told the sky is falling by news outlets as it's good headlines? Also, some people just like to wallow in negativity - the "See, I told you it would be bad" brigade.

 

[LlcoolJ]

The biggest cost of energy (petrol/transportation) is taxation in the UK. Look at the huge drop in oil from circa $150/barrel to $50/barrel. The change to pump prices is from say £1.45 (approx guess) to £1.10. So, strip out refining costs, retail costs/profit etc, then you're back to the raw cost plus tax. Look at the breakdown of the pump price and see, in realtive terms, how little an impact the change on a few percent makes on pump prices.

So, the 10% change in £ v $ is not massive against that backdrop. Also, the fundamentals of our economy are sound, much better than most of Europe, but this doesn't fit in with the scare stories from the Remain side. Compared to what we were warned would happen to our economy after a BREXIT vote (not when BREXIT takes effect), this slight adjustment caused mainly by uncertainty (as it's not backed by the economic statistics since the vote, which have been much stronger than projected) is a minor effect. How many times do we get told the sky is falling by news outlets as it's good headlines? Also, some people just like to wallow in negativity - the "See, I told you it would be bad" brigade.

Slight adjustment? The pound has been anally raped and you call it a slight adjustment. Not even funny, just stupid. Never mind the facts though as nobody cares about those any more.

 

[beorhthelm]

Slight adjustment? The pound has been anally raped and you call it a slight adjustment. Not even funny, just stupid. Never mind the facts though as nobody cares about those any more.

you mention facts with hyperbole and not looking at other information. £/$ dropped around 10-12% between Jun 2015 and Jun 2016, do you remember the impending doom that caused? did you notice it? combined, its 20-25% in 18months, not a great story but there are upsides (helps exports) and the underlying cause is low interest rates. Brexit is a short term catalyst for speculators and traders to abuse.

 

[LlcoolJ]

you mention facts with hyperbole and not looking at other information. £/$ dropped around 10-12% between Jun 2015 and Jun 2016, do you remember the impending doom that caused? did you notice it? combined, its 20-25% in 18months, not a great story but there are upsides (helps exports) and the underlying cause is low interest rates. Brexit is a short term catalyst for speculators and traders to abuse.

Helps exports, great. I'm at the coal face helping small businesses. Most import and export and this situation is ****ing most of them, not helping them.

But you feel happy about your vote with your statistics. As I said, nobody cares about facts.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I pretty much agree with all of this. I had absolutely no problem with the single market or free movement of people but had lots against the EU as an institution. We have no idea how many leavers felt the same but I reckon there were significant numbers

As a wet letuce pinko (allegedly) I also agree with this, and Triggar's comment that we had one shot to whatever. In my ideal scenario it would have been no referendum, but a government prepared to rip another one in all the crappy quangos and utter nonsense emanating stage South, as a given. Sadly we are like England football - no balls in politics, certainly none aligned with brains or honour or knowhow. So running away probably makes sense on reflection.

I have had many a good chat with @jcfootygenius (probably got the tag wrong). I wonder if he can identify our smart leaders. I'm stumped. R5 today had a soundbite from the May about controlling Eu immigration. So . . . . what about the massive other 50% that we always had control over? That was just pathetic, and I'm minded of a small boy (or girl) in a playground, negociating with the big boys over who will get to eat his/her lunch that mummy made them. My money is on the big boys.

 

[LlcoolJ]

As a wet letuce pinko (allegedly) I also agree with this, and Triggar's comment that we had one shot to whatever. In my ideal scenario it would have been no referendum, but a government prepared to rip another one in all the crappy quangos and utter nonsense emanating stage South, as a given. Sadly we are like England football - no balls in politics, certainly none aligned with brains or honour or knowhow. So running away probably makes sense on reflection.

I have had many a good chat with @jcfootygenius (probably got the tag wrong). I wonder if he can identify our smart leaders. I'm stumped. R5 today had a soundbite from the May about controlling Eu immigration. So . . . . what about the massive other 50% that we always had control over? That was just pathetic, and I'm minded of a small boy (or girl) in a playground, negociating with the big boys over who will get to eat his/her lunch that mummy made them. My money is on the big boys.

Your posts can be slightly confusing sometimes. But I get, and agree with this one fibromyalgia..... I meant completely. Bloody auto correct.

 

[The Maharajah of Sydney]

Mon Oct 10, 2016 | 12:08am BST
British economy loses steam as business investment wilts

Reporting on the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) Quarterly Economic Survey and also Deloitte's survey of chief financial officers in major British firms

UK business investment intentions and turnover confidence hit 4-year lows in Q3 - British Chambers of Commerce
UK Q3 services domestic sales growth weakest in 4 years, export sales weakest in 5 years - BCC
UK manufacturing export sales growth strongest since Q1 2015 - BCC
Deloitte survey of British CFOs shows partial business confidence recovery after Brexit vote shock
UK CFO investment sentiment negative, below pre-referendum level despite Q3 uptick - Deloitte
Two thirds of CFOs in Britain say Brexit will lead to deterioration of business environment - Deloitte

Full report here ; http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-economy-idUKKCN1290ZV

On balance, a fairly negative survey.
After opening ½ cent lower in Asia this morning, Pound now barely unchanged from last week's closing level of $US1.2440

 

[scamander]

Just a quick question, I remember a while back hearing about how overpriced the pound was, it was a point raised prior to the referendum (see here and even back when Cable was business secretary).

Assuming this is the case is the current drop something which was always going to happen and the vote was merely a trigger or do folk think that this has made it worse?