[Politics] Brexit

[pastafarian]

There's another scenario - we vote to leave, and then the politicians start to negotiate. If Cameron & Osborne don't resign, then they'll be leading the negotiations. They will immediately want to secure access to the single market, and the quid pro quo will be free movement of EU nationals within the UK....this will be granted, and we will negotiate a deal with the EU virtually identical to what we have now. This will be put to a vote in parliament, and will be agreed (the Brexiteers are definitely a minority of MPs). So - we will be OUT, but will broadly have the same relationship with the EU.....we have to abide by their rules, but we retain our trading access, etc. The pro-Brexit camp seem to forget that ultimately they may not be able to command the parliamentary majority which will result in them getting their desired wishes on immigration.

utterly ridiculous post
head in the clouds nonsense.

if there was a brexit ,one of the major contributing factors would be taking back control of our borders and stopping the free movement of people into this country.

who ever is no. 10 at the time of negotiations will be committing political suicide if they decide to ignore the outcome of the referendum and stick two fingers up and say we are going to sign up to free movement ......and your referendum result

they may be a daft bunch in westminster sometimes but ignoring the majority will of the people in the manner you describe would be beyond mental, you lot really should think about what you are going to scaremonger about next

 

[Maldini]

Yes - that's the challenge for the "Bremain" camp. Unfortunately, even trying to set out the facts on immigration won't do:

We desperately need immigrants to do the jobs most Brits don't want to do.
The average immigrant contributes more to the UK economy than the average "native" Brit.
And in terms of immigrants from the EU, the vast majority of them are either university educated, or have some other post-secondary school qualification.

http://im.ft-static.com/content/images/98723742-0c5f-11e6-b0f1-61f222853ff3.img

As I said in my previous post Immigrants only replace what a British worker would give to the economy and infact overall contribute less.
They do what a British worker won't do because we don't want to work for peanuts and in poor conditions.As I said immigrants push wages down
and Brits do not want to be exploited.20 years ago we did all the jobs so why do you suppose we don't want to do them now?Low wages.

It seems to me 99% of immigrants take low paid jobs therefore I would assume they are not that educated.I don't even know what education
has to do with anything?

 

[Maldini]

Time to ask another question to the Remain camp which again will go unanswered.

How do you suppose we will deal with the ever increasing population increase due to migrants with regards to:

1/Jobs?
2/Housing?
3/School/Nursery/University places?
4/NHS
5/Doctors/Dentist appointments/treatment?
6/Suppression of wage hikes due to migrants working for peanuts?
7/Security?

Not surprisingly this question has been passed over by most of the Remain camp.

 

[Bevendean Hillbilly]

Leave and have done with it.

 

[Maldini]

This is a phoney referendum. Vote LEAVE then we can start real negotiations. At any time, should we be unhappy with the progress - just vote to REMAIN in a new referendum and put a stop to it. Heads we win - tails we can't loose!

Why would you want to remain if we are unhappy with the negotiations?I don't get it.

The idea that we start negotiations after voting leave is probably the only way we can get the EU to listen however the changes the brexit camp want are so great that I cannot see the EU ever agreeing to it. Once we vote leave the goverment can't backtrack.We have to leave.

The EU need to watch out because I'm sure some countries are very interested in how the referendum will go with a view to holding their own referendum should we vote leave.If we do vote leave then that could spell the end of the EU or the great superstate headed by Merkel.

 

[Fitzcarraldo]

The European Union always was a CIA project, as Brexiteers discover.
It was Washington that drove European integration in the late 1940s, and funded it covertly under the Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, and Nixon administrations.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...lways-was-a-cia-project-as-brexiteers-discov/

Tin foil hats ON

 

[Fitzcarraldo]

If the the Brexit chumps thinks this argument is going to be fought over immigration they will lose and lose bad. I reckon this is going to be won over the pounds in your pocket and from what I have seen the pound in your pocket is going to be worth more after a vote in, not out. Why gamble?

 

[Lincoln Imp]

utterly ridiculous post
head in the clouds nonsense.

if there was a brexit ,one of the major contributing factors would be taking back control of our borders and stopping the free movement of people into this country.

who ever is no. 10 at the time of negotiations will be committing political suicide if they decide to ignore the outcome of the referendum and stick two fingers up and say we are going to sign up to free movement ......and your referendum result

they may be a daft bunch in westminster sometimes but ignoring the majority will of the people in the manner you describe would be beyond mental, you lot really should think about what you are going to scaremonger about next

I assumed this post was from JC Footy Genius for a moment, and wondered why he was getting uncharacteristically irritable. I agree with you that the scenario presented by Jim in the West was unrealistic but perhaps he knew that anyway and offered it up as a 'what if' point for debate. Your reaction was a bit prickly I thought.

I did read your post though and was interested that you seem to absolutely rule out any possibility of a post-Brexit UK government (a GOVErnment?) negotiating a trade deal that includes free access to the single market. I wonder if this is the general view of Brexit-supporters.

 

[Fitzcarraldo]

Why vote Brexit? Why vote to be poorer?

 

[5ways]

Why vote Brexit? Why vote to be poorer?

'sovereignty'. Better to be a poor king than a rich prince is their thinking.

 

[5ways]

Free movement is part of the deal for access to the internal market. You will not get a deal without it. We benefit from this free movement - migrants, often highly educated and almost entirely driven by a will to work, pay into the system more than they take. Their education is paid for by, say, the Polish or Italian government and then we reap their taxes and productivity here in the UK. This is good for the UK. I can understand why people have such a hard time with immigration but to me it is such a non-issue, so many of my friends and colleagues are from the EU and they've made the UK their home and made this country richer, culturally and economically.

No UK pol wants to get rid of them because they are propping up the taxman and your services!

 

[Maldini]

Why vote Brexit? Why vote to be poorer?

Why believe all the Remain bias? Why not accept it's impossible to really know the outcome of Leave?
Why not answer how are we going to cope with 350k more migrants every year and that's without
those coming from new to be EU members like Turkey and it's 70m population?

Why o why o why.

 

[Maldini]

Free movement is part of the deal for access to the internal market. You will not get a deal without it. We benefit from this free movement - migrants, often highly educated and almost entirely driven by a will to work, pay into the system more than they take. Their education is paid for by, say, the Polish or Italian government and then we reap their taxes and productivity here in the UK. This is good for the UK. I can understand why people have such a hard time with immigration but to me it is such a non-issue, so many of my friends and colleagues are from the EU and they've made the UK their home and made this country richer, culturally and economically.

No UK pol wants to get rid of them because they are propping up the taxman and your services!

Why did we cope for years without migrants?Because we don't need them.

 

[Fitzcarraldo]

Why believe all the Remain bias? Why not accept it's impossible to really know the outcome of Leave?
Why not answer how are we going to cope with 350k more migrants every year and that's without
those coming from new to be EU members like Turkey and it's 70m population?

Why o why o why.

That is all well and good. But why vote to make yourself poorer? Why vote against the pound in your pocket?

 

[Fitzcarraldo]

Why did we cope for years without migrants?Because we don't need them.

When was this 'years without migrants' you talk about?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

The fiscal impact of EU migration is disputed some say there is some gain others ...

MigrationWatch UK (2014) criticised the assumptions of Dustmann and Frattini (2013). The criticism covers many factors, but overall it suggests that Dustmann and Frattini (2013) exaggerated the revenues the government obtains from migrants and underestimate the cost of public service provision to migrants. Using new multiple assumptions, MigrationWatch UK (2014) finds that during the 1995-2011 period the fiscal impact of EEA migrants was GBP -13.6 billion and the fiscal impact of non-EEA migrants was GBP -135 billion. Looking at the recent EEA migrants, MigrationWatch UK (2014) estimates that the total fiscal impact of recent EEA migrants for the 2001-2011 period was GBP -0.25 billion and the impact of recent non-EEA migrants was GBP -27 billion for the same period.

Rowthorn (2014) re-evaluated the estimates of Dustmann and Frattini (2013) for recent migrants. In particular, he argues for the need of a British worker displacement adjustment given the evidence that migration displaces British workers. After this and other adjustments he finds a negative impact of recent EEA migration of about GBP -0.3 billion and a negative impact of recent non-EEA migration of GBP -29.7 billion.

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/fiscal-impact-immigration-uk

 

[5ways]

Not surprisingly this question has been passed over by most of the Remain camp.

Jobs - the EU has helped create jobs by reducing barriers to trade. 3 million jobs depend on trade with the EU and most of our small exporting businesses operate in Europe. If we leave the EU and our economy contracts unemployment will rise. PwC says it could be 8% by 2020 if Brexit, rather than 5% remain. EU = jobs.

Housing - we need to build more houses in the right places sure. House building is good for the economy - and Latvian bricklayers.

Schools, nurseries and universities - the population is growing - this is a good thing because we have old people to support. Luckily migrants pay a net contribution to the treasury so we can afford more infrastructure. Universities = our world class universities depend on easy movement, EU and international, of staff and students. We should also let extremely intelligent people stay after their degrees and harvest their above average taxes.

Doctors - There's a whole literature on the EU and the NHS which you can google if you're interested. We import a lot of NHS staff from the EU, literally it would stop working without them.

Wages - Brexit would damage productivity. This would damage growth. This would lead to decline in real wages. IT would also weaken the pound, so what you get with your wage buys you less.Brexit = poorer wages + higher prices.

Security - better integration, info-sharing, europol, european arrest warrant. The European Criminal Records Information System, Financial Intelligence Units, the Prisoner Transfer Framework, SIS II, Joint Investigation Teams, Prüm. All useful stuff. We also control our own borders and we're not in schegen, everyone gets scanned.

 

[5ways]

Why did we cope for years without migrants?Because we don't need them.

Because previously the UK's economy was very large relative to other countries. In 1990, maybe even 1995, the UK economy was twice the size of China. So relatively that is a lot of wealth per person - even if it is actually less in real terms than today. Now we have more competition we have to scrap for our share of global gdp and global wealth. As our productivity per person is in relative decline we need more people to keep producing at the same rate to keep up. We need more people to do this, the EU and the competition it has exposed us to is good at pushing up productivity. Basically the world is changing and we have to adapt. Countries without (youthful) migrants are sclerotic- see Japan. This is a prob across the Western world but the UK has one big advantage - we can pull in the youth of Europe to keep us spritely. Not something Italy, or even Germany, seems able to do.

 

[pastafarian]

I assumed this post was from JC Footy Genius for a moment, and wondered why he was getting uncharacteristically irritable. I agree with you that the scenario presented by Jim in the West was unrealistic but perhaps he knew that anyway and offered it up as a 'what if' point for debate. Your reaction was a bit prickly I thought.

I did read your post though and was interested that you seem to absolutely rule out any possibility of a post-Brexit UK government (a GOVErnment?) negotiating a trade deal that includes free access to the single market. I wonder if this is the general view of Brexit-supporters.

It didnt read like a what if at all,more like a what will
Im sorry if you thought my reaction was prickly but if was a silly notion and as you say yourself unrealistic (i could use other more prickly words)

i dont know where i ruled out anything as regards to trade,if i did i certainly didnt mean to or imply it,
cant speak for others but i (personally) hope all varying degrees of options of trade are available for discussion when it comes to the trade negotiations.

Freedom of movement will not be on the table though,The EU may ask but it wont receive.
And as has been shown the EU does trade and is negotiating with other nations in the capacity of Free Trade Agreements where free movement is not part of the parcel

 

[pastafarian]

Because previously the UK's economy was very large relative to other countries. In 1990, maybe even 1995, the UK economy was twice the size of China. So relatively that is a lot of wealth per person - even if it is actually less in real terms than today. Now we have more competition we have to scrap for our share of global gdp and global wealth. As our productivity per person is in relative decline we need more people to keep producing at the same rate to keep up. We need more people to do this, the EU and the competition it has exposed us to is good at pushing up productivity. Basically the world is changing and we have to adapt. Countries without (youthful) migrants are sclerotic- see Japan. This is a prob across the Western world but the UK has one big advantage - we can pull in the youth of Europe to keep us spritely. Not something Italy, or even Germany, seems able to do.

and you are focusing on the young of Europe as many in the Remain camp do.
you need to stop being so EU insular

open your eyes to the bigger global picture.We could bring in talent that is required from all over the globe and not discriminate in favour of Europe.
To do this we need control of our borders and to manage them effectively. You cannot control your borders by remaining in the EU,its as simple as that.