[Politics] Brexit

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

My mistake, mea culpa. The DUP have really played a blinder then. Not supported May despite her red line about No Border in the Irish Sea, believed Boris when he said he'd keep that promise, then watch on as he does exactly what he said he wouldn't do then wins a majority for it in Parliament, then they realise he can win a vote even without their support.

Even worse, whilst Stormont sits empty Westminster has abortion decriminalised and gay marriage permitted in Northern Ireland.

Now they know how the Lib Dems feel about getting f*cked over by the Tories.

The DUP are already consigned to the dustbin of history. With friends like those, who needs enemies? One of the tremendous benefits of ths next election, from the Tories POV, is that their increased majority will mean they no longer have to give the medieval throwbacks of the DUP the time of day

 

[The Clamp]

I think I can now safely speak for the vast, vast majority of the U.K. when I say that let’s just hope in a few months time we are able to say “thank god we remained in the EU, we almost destroyed ourselves”, rather than the still possible scenario where we say “what on Earth have we done to ourselves”

There are very few who could now, in all good faith disagree with this sentiment.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

The current Poll of Polls agrees

View attachment 116483

Sir John Curtice, Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University undisputed GOD of Polls believes another referendum would be far too close to call ...

Few voters have changed their minds

Third, very few voters on either side of the argument have changed their minds about whether the UK should leave the EU. The country appears to be just as divided as it was three years ago.

On average, during the last month, polls that ask people how they would vote in another referendum suggest that 88% of those who backed Remain would do so again. Among those who voted Leave, 86% have not changed their minds.

These figures have changed very little during the last two years.

True, most polls suggest - and have done so for some time - that the balance of opinion might be tilted narrowly in favour of remaining a member of the EU. On average, this is by 53% to 47%.

However, this lead for Remain rests primarily on the views expressed by those who did not vote three years ago - and perhaps might not do so again.

In truth, nobody can be sure what would happen if there were to be another referendum.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50043549

 

[Lincoln Imp]

staying in a customs union means not being able to set foreign trade arragements, so from the brexiters point of view, what is the point of brexit? they can argue the toss on immigration and a few other areas, but without being able to set trade agreements there's pretty much no point, that is more important than regulations (which can all be changed in our own law).

I would imagine that ‘not being able to roam round the world signing cracking new trade deals to compensate for the 100-odd ones we’re binning’ is becoming less important as everyone except MailExpressSun readers realise the prospect was only ever one more Leave mirage.

 

[CHAPPERS]

[tweet]1186989830695215106[/tweet]

 

[clapham_gull]

The inertia at the moment is down to a war of "who gets the PMs ear" and Cummings is off soon. Much arguing is taking place about what to do next.

Cummings has made a number of strategic errors. His major whopper thinking that the Labour party would vote for an election.

The Cummings team was sidelined during the end of discussions with the EU and Boris brought back a number of May's negotiators. That's why "No.10" was briefing the press that a deal didn't look possible. That wasn't No.10, it was Cummings and his advisors upset at being left at home.

Even though the Tories are very much in a position to push a deal through parliament (albeit with debate and scrutiny), there are internal arguments over how Parliament will amend the bill.

The People v Parliament is starting to wear a bit thin. It's Tories versus themselves.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

I think I can now safely speak for the vast, vast majority of the U.K. when I say that let’s just hope in a few months time we are able to say “thank god we remained in the EU, we almost destroyed ourselves”, rather than the still possible scenario where we say “what on Earth have we done to ourselves”

There are very few who could now, in all good faith disagree with this sentiment.

So you didn't bother to read post #105716 ?

 

[ManOfSussex]

I haven't look through all of them but it seems a lot of these Labour MPs have Tory's close in second place.

I wonder how many voted tactically (possibly with the Whip's backing) on the 2nd reading to help their chances in the GE.

That's actually pretty much what Andrew Bridgen accused them off on Newsnight last night - just so they can look their constituents in the eye and say they voted for the deal. If it got to 2nd reading though, they'd have then voted on all manner of amendments on it.

 

[Simster]

So you didn't bother to read post #105716 ?

The one that shows remain winning in a poll of polls chart?

 

[The Clamp]

So you didn't bother to read post #105716 ?

Did you?

 

[lawros left foot]

I guess so given she went to the country but she beat him albeit with a smaller majority. Are you indicating Corbyn is the answer?

She didn’t get a smaller majority, she didn’t get a majority at all, that’s why we are still in the EU.

The Tories believed the polls that put them on double Labour votes, so called an election, and their hubris cost them their, all be it slim, majority.
The next election is by no means cut and dried, the Brexit company ltd, will take Tory votes, the Lib Dem’s are a far more electable bunch who will take Labour and Tory seats, The SNP will more or less, clear up in Scotland.


We will be welcoming another hung Parliament, but maybe with a different dynamic.

 

[Hampster Gull]

She didn’t get a smaller majority, she didn’t get a majority at all, that’s why we are still in the EU.

The Tories believed the polls that put them on double Labour votes, so called an election, and their hubris cost them their, all be it slim, majority.
The next election is by no means cut and dried, the Brexit company ltd, will take Tory votes, the Lib Dem’s are a far more electable bunch who will take Labour and Tory seats, The SNP will more or less, clear up in Scotland.


We will be welcoming another hung Parliament, but maybe with a different dynamic.

You’re right, majority at the time after getting into bed with the DUP. My point though was a competent Labour leader would sweep the floor. Not sure if your agreeing of disagreeing.

 

[Is it PotG?]

A Blair-like (minus the porkies) leader would see Labour in a much better light with the electorate, can't see that happening for a bit though.

 

[The Clamp]

So you didn't bother to read post #105716 ?

Gee whizz! That’s about the simplest graph one could ever be asked to interpret. And you got it wrong.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

A Blair-like (minus the porkies) leader would see Labour in a much better light with the electorate, can't see that happening for a bit though.

Corbyn is 70 - surely he goes once he loses another election.

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[Is it PotG?]

Corbyn is 70 - surely he goes once he loses another election.

But will Momentum hang around?

 

[Marshy]

So rumour has it 52% want to stay now is it... well that will sort everything out then..... cant see any problems arising from that if we had another vote..

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

So rumour has it 52% want to stay now is it... well that will sort everything out then..... cant see any problems arising from that if we had another vote..

Indeed - far too fine a margin to result in any harmony afterwards.

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[clapham_gull]

That's actually pretty much what Andrew Bridgen accused them off on Newsnight last night - just so they can look their constituents in the eye and say they voted for the deal. If it got to 2nd reading though, they'd have then voted on all manner of amendments on it.

He's wrong though and Andrew Bridgen isn't the smartest of Tory MPs. He was the one who was convinced anyone living in England could simply apply for an Irish passport.

Just look at their votes in the indicative votes. They have been very consistent post referendum, they are soft Brexiteers.

As I mentioned there is an internal war going on around those who advise Boris. Those who want it to go through Parliament democratically and those who don't like the probable consensus Parliament will come to.

There is a similar disagreement going on the Brexit party. Many members are pissed with Farage and his "no deal or nothing" line.

The irony is the two people pushing the disaster capitalism line (Farage and Cummings) absolutely loath each other.

 

[Marshy]

Corbyn is 70 - surely he goes once he loses another election.

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Surely if a Gen Election is called Labour will replace Corbyn first … because they can't win with him in charge.