[Politics] Brexit

[pb21]

That can't be the very same John Major who prorogued parliament back in 1997 arguably for political reasons, can it?

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=1997-03-18a.719.2#g719.5

He is an expert then, and arguably a hypocrite (although I am sure he would say the context of the 1997 prorogation is fundamentally different), and understands exactly what's being done and why.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

If that rumour turns out to be true it would be hilarious

Oh dear …. you've not yet understood that currently, by UK law, we're leaving on the 31st October regardless. The EU can 'extend' the deadline as much as they like - it had now affect unless Parliament agrees to an extension.

 

[Mellotron]

you've not yet understood that currently, by UK law, we're leaving on the 31st October regardless. The EU can 'extend' the deadline as much as they like - it had now affect unless Parliament agrees to an extension.

That's the entire point.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

All well and good except for one thing, the EU cannot unilaterally extend the exit date. It has to be agreed between the EU and the UK.

OMG …. something we actually agree on !!!! *faints*

 

[JC Footy Genius]

So it was wrong then but ok now? Not sure what your point is. He did a bad thing, now he's doing a good thing. That's good.

Why are you so anti-democracy?

Erm ... he's a hypocrite. Calm down and stop babbling

 

[Mellotron]

Erm ... he's a hypocrite. Calm down and stop babbling

So? Doesn't change the fact that the course of action he is taking is the correct one now. What an irrelevant comment.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

He is an expert then, and arguably a hypocrite (although I am sure he would say the context of the 1997 prorogation is fundamentally different), and understands exactly what's being done and why.

Certainly an expert in hypocrisy.

 

[beorhthelm]

I see, yes you are right.

The EU could just say "we are happy to extend for another 3/6 months etc. in order to avoid no deal, do you want this?".

it would be an interesting gambit if true. not sure it is possible though, as it stands the EU need to agree to a request to extend. Macron didnt want to extend last time and others only if there is meaningful change. can the EU offer an extension without offering a reason from them to extend?

 

[Westdene Seagull]

That's the entire point.

And therefore an entirely pointless point

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Dominic Cummings is pulling the strings and the OODA strategy of the Remain Alliance ‘RA’ being well and truly tested right now. The more enlightened of you should seek out his blogs on this over the last few years and you will gain insight into what is happening.

It’s very funny watching the RA now scramble for direction. BJ/MG/DC are outmanoeuvring them at every turn. But, they're also spiking Farage's guns, watch the BP slide in the polls even more after yesterday. The simple, and possibly sad fact is that there exists no one, not one politician or SpAd on the remain side that can even scratch the insight, knowledge and capability that DC has on political strategy.

The RA are somewhat helpless now. This is because it will slowly dawn on them that a deal is now more likely and they have been outgunned. Here’s why:

Vote of no confidence action.
A VoNC will not be successful before the party conference recess, as Conservative MPs, no matter how remainy, will want to give HMG time to negotiate with the EU especially given recent emollient rumblings from over the channel on the NI backstop. Indeed, expect the next phase on the grid to be more, not less, positivity from both the EU and HMG on the NI backstop before Parliament returns next week. Plus, up to 30 Labour MPs will abstain. JC knows this at least, which is why he doesn't want a VoNC now. If there is a confidence vote on the return of parliament on 14th October it's unlikely to happen before the EU summit that week on 16/17th. If HMG were to lose that, ND happens by default because an interim govmt will not happen as there is no flavor of it that will command a majority - this will further deter remain Tories because the reality of ND or a new WA bill approved at the EU council will be directly in front of them. A VoNC is bound to fail.

Blocking legislation
This is the bigger and more imminent threat to DC/BJ/MG’s plans. But it will struggle if, before next Tuesday, BJ makes valid noises about the possibility of a deal. Equally, if it looks like the emergency legislation looks like it has a chance of success, HMG could amend it with a VoNC clause and impose a 3 line whip, effectively bringing forward the above conundrum, because if successful ND becomes more, not less, likely.

Rationale
A new Queen's speech means that the WA can be returned to Parliament because it's a new legislative session. If it is brought back minus the NI Backstop as drafted, it will pass. I am certain this is the plan and it will work, this is why you haven't seen or heard any negative briefings from Donald Tusk post his meeting with BJ, because it's (the deal) already done. All that needed to happen was for HMG to create the space for it to happen, a Queen's speech facilitates that by re-introducing the WA bill - this has already been welcomed by the EU according to some.

The way I think that the NI backstop will be removed is ingenious, but it's already in play. Essentially it will be written into UK law that it will be illegal for goods crossing the NI/Ire border to be non-EU compliant, reciprocally the same will apply in reverse. This will preserve the legislative integrity of the SM and the UK Govmt simultaneously. The legal blog is below and is backed by EU insiders, you saw it here first: Dominic Cummings is pulling the strings and the OODA strategy of the Remain Alliance ‘RA’ being well and truly tested right now. The more enlightened of you should seek out his blogs on this over the last few years and you will gain insight into what is happening.

It’s very funny watching the RA now scramble for direction. BJ/MG/DC are outmanoeuvring them at every turn. But, they're also spiking Farage's guns, watch the BP slide in the polls even more after yesterday. The simple, and possibly sad fact is that there exists no one, not one politician or SpAd on the remain side that can even scratch the insight, knowledge and capability that DC has on political strategy.

The RA are somewhat helpless now. This is because it will slowly dawn on them that a deal is now more likely and they have been outgunned. Here’s why:

Vote of no confidence action.
A VoNC will not be successful before the party conference recess, as Conservative MPs, no matter how remainy, will want to give HMG time to negotiate with the EU especially given recent emollient rumblings from over the channel on the NI backstop. Indeed, expect the next phase on the grid to be more, not less, positivity from both the EU and HMG on the NI backstop before Parliament returns next week. Plus, up to 30 Labour MPs will abstain. JC knows this at least, which is why he doesn't want a VoNC now. If there is a confidence vote on the return of parliament on 14th October it's unlikely to happen before the EU summit that week on 16/17th. If HMG were to lose that, ND happens by default because an interim govmt will not happen as there is no flavor of it that will command a majority - this will further deter remain Tories because the reality of ND or a new WA bill approved at the EU council will be directly in front of them. A VoNC is bound to fail.

Blocking legislation
This is the bigger and more imminent threat to DC/BJ/MG’s plans. But it will struggle if, before next Tuesday, BJ makes valid noises about the possibility of a deal. Equally, if it looks like the emergency legislation looks like it has a chance of success, HMG could amend it with a VoNC clause and impose a 3 line whip, effectively bringing forward the above conundrum, because if successful ND becomes more, not less, likely.

Rationale
A new Queen's speech means that the WA can be returned to Parliament because it's a new legislative session. If it is brought back minus the NI Backstop as drafted, it will pass. I am certain this is the plan and it will work, this is why you haven't seen or heard any negative briefings from Donald Tusk post his meeting with BJ, because it's (the deal) already done. All that needed to happen was for HMG to create the space for it to happen, a Queen's speech facilitates that by re-introducing the WA bill - this has already been welcomed by the EU according to some.

The way I think that the NI backstop will be removed is ingenious, but it's already in play. Essentially it will be written into UK law that it will be illegal for goods crossing the NI/Ire border to be non-EU compliant, reciprocally the same will apply in reverse. This will preserve the legislative integrity of the SM and the UK Govmt simultaneously. The legal blog is below and is backed by EU insiders, you saw it here first: https://verfassungsblog.de/an-offer...qPfiHdxlvhZBG4507lUs9K0-Ow-cR6NcZ-czQlhTUen9s

Whilst this would be a relatively acceptable outcome, I do 'worry' it has been lifted from some website where the aim is to deflect away from a deliberate strategy of a *no deal* outcome.

As always, beware of anything that seems to tell you what you want to hear.

I'm suspecting that the original source is misleading fiction.

 

[Mellotron]

it would be an interesting gambit if true. not sure it is possible though, as it stands the EU need to agree to a request to extend. Macron didnt want to extend last time and others only if there is meaningful change. can the EU offer an extension without offering a reason from them to extend?

"To allow the UK the chance to avoid a hugely damaging and profoundly undemocratic No Deal Brexit" is a pretty substantial reason to be fair.

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

Stop shouting. It's 11am in the morning. Why are you so angry all the time?

Two things to avoid in life

1. Consuming yellow snow and

2. People who use CAPITALS A LOT

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Speaking of incorrect statements do you still think Gina Miller voted Leave?

Interesting that 'Investment Manager' Gina Miller keeps sticking her oar in. Anyone might be forgiven for thinking she had a vested interest in the Brexit outcome. She really needs to butt out of the process.

 

[Mellotron]

And therefore an entirely pointless point

I genuinely don't know where to begin.

You understand that the EU cancelling "their" end of the 31st Oct withdrawal isn't about stopping Brexit, right? You get the political reasons behind such a move, if they made it?

 

[beorhthelm]

“The Scottish Government will be bringing a debate to the Scottish Parliament next week calling for a no deal Brexit to be ruled out under all circumstances.”

If this comes to pass in Westminster also, Johnson will be forced to seek an extension.

if the MPs pull their finger out. if Johnson is forced to extend, well he can say thats not his doing, probably part of the calculations.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

And therefore an entirely pointless point

Boris Johnson wants to be popular. He is blaming the EU for everything at the moment, and getting plaudits for it. By removing the reason for that blame, it bounces straight back to him.
I wonder if his ego can handle it.

 

[Mellotron]

if the MPs pull their finger out. if Johnson is forced to extend, well he can say thats not his doing, probably part of the calculations.

Another extension - EU last suggested it would be to the end of 2020 - and we would be moving further, and further, and further away from the 2016 referendum. The mandate is already near non-existent.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

I genuinely don't know where to begin.

You understand that the EU cancelling "their" end of the 31st Oct withdrawal isn't about stopping Brexit, right? You get the political reasons behind such a move, if they made it?

Good grief …. you know they won't extend it unless a request comes in from the UK yes ? You know it requires all 27 members to agree yes ? Not a surprising statement from someone that has suggested leavers support people dying though.

 

[beorhthelm]

"To allow the UK the chance to avoid a hugely damaging and profoundly undemocratic No Deal Brexit" is a pretty substantial reason to be fair.

as it stands parliament voted to leave, and did not impose any condition. its not the place of the EU to tell us what we can do, otherwise they call into question the sovereignty of parliament. pretty dangerous territory you'd agree? im not talking simply having a good reason, im talking about having a good legally sound reason their side, they do not have the power to simply extend article 50 unilaterally.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Interesting that 'Investment Manager' Gina Miller keeps sticking her oar in. Anyone might be forgiven for thinking she had a vested interest in the Brexit outcome. She really needs to butt out of the process.

Why? She is a British citizen who is entitled to her say.
She was right in taking Theresa May to court to say Parliament is sovereign. We went into Europe by an act of Parliament and so had to have an act of Parliament to leave.
Miller 1 May 0.

There is a tearing hurry to be out by January 2020, when the EU tax avoidance laws come into force. No more Panama papers, tax havens etc. I wonder why the Tory elite rich club are so desperate to get out now? JRM has admitted he's already made £7million out of the Brexit crisis.