[Politics] Brexit

[Gwylan]

I read elsewhere today that Johnson is supposedly consulting an election expert to call a general election, but on the 31st Oct, so we would go out of the EU by default, without any MPs to oppose it.

The PM can no longer call a GE. Thanks to the FTPA, it has to be a decision of two-thirds of the House - in other words, it needs Opposition support. The only other option is a vote of No Confidence (which also has to be moved by the Leader of the Opposition).

 

[Thunder Bolt]

The PM can no longer call a GE. Thanks to the FTPA, it has to be a decision of two-thirds of the House - in other words, it needs Opposition support. The only other option is a vote of No Confidence (which also has to be moved by the Leader of the Opposition).

That's good news at least.

 

[Driver8]

Brexit: EU 'refusing to negotiate', says Gove https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49251257

If only they had said there wasn’t going to be any more negotiating........

 

[theonlymikey]

Michael Gove struggling to believe his own BS on blaming the EU...

https://www.independent.co.uk/voice...blame-brexit-brussels-europe-eu-a9043851.html

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

 

[Westdene Seagull]

The PM can no longer call a GE. Thanks to the FTPA, it has to be a decision of two-thirds of the House - in other words, it needs Opposition support. The only other option is a vote of No Confidence (which also has to be moved by the Leader of the Opposition).

And equally the first date a NC vote can take place is the 4th Sept. If successful the government has 14 days to 'get confidence'. If they don't then the PM has to call a GE which is of the PMs choosing with certain parameters. There will be no GE before 31st October.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

Michael Gove struggling to believe his own BS on blaming the EU...

https://www.independent.co.uk/voice...blame-brexit-brussels-europe-eu-a9043851.html

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

So let me get this straight .... the EU all along, since May got her 'deal' have said they won't renegociate it yet when Gove says exactly the same as the EU it's BS ?

 

[Baldseagull]

Hey hey!

View attachment 113846

Due to entirely foreseeable circumstances, this train will be delayed indefinitely. Passengers wishing to leave the EU are advised to move to the Isle of Man.

 

[Baldseagull]

An interesting question to which there is no definitive answer. I guess the easy way t categories potential issues is

1. We delay or revoke - in which case the Brexiteers will kick off.

2. We crash out without a deal - in which case the Remainers kick off.

(Let's assume for the sake of argument and probability that a deal by 31/10 is just not going to happen. If it does then to some extent it pre-empts 1 and 2.)

One common denominator would be the enormous responsibility on politicians not to play to the gallery (or mob). But these scenarios are both surely a major reason to get a deal?

I think in situation 2, many leavers will also kick off, once the reality bites.

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

And equally the first date a NC vote can take place is the 4th Sept. If successful the government has 14 days to 'get confidence'. If they don't then the PM has to call a GE which is of the PMs choosing with certain parameters. There will be no GE before 31st October.

By which time we will have left the EU, Tory voters will be happy nige will be happy Brexit party voters will be happy, meanwhile chucky Grieve and co will be cryng into their corn flakes
Regards
DR

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

Just watched Raab (keep up at the back, he's our new Foreign Secretary!) give a press conference in Canada. Why does he always look so shifty? (Answer: because he is so shifty.)

But let's move to people who actually know what they are talking about. Larry Summers, former US Trade Secretary:

“Britain has no leverage, Britain is desperate … it needs an agreement very soon. When you have a desperate partner, that’s when you strike the hardest bargain.”

This shows the total folly of our negotiating position. Not only have we totally under-estimated the strength of the EU's position (they need us more than we need them, the national governments won't toe the EU's line)
but we've also totally over-estimated our own leverage with new trading partners (if they exist). We will be negotiating new trade deals from the invincible position of our knees.

And on a technical point, as Sterling tanks we will be perceived as having an unfair trading advantage which will make a bad situation worse. Just look at what Trump has done to the Chinese because of their alleged currency manipulation.

This is a subset of the hugely inflated Brexit view of our worth (5th largest economy on the planet) and a reckless refusal to acknowledge the realities and complexities of international trade. Please feel free to disagree but maybe pitch the responses a little bit higher than the 'believe in Britain' stuff. The only thing our Brexit fanatics are good at selling is a pup.

this country really needs people like you , so patriotic and so believing , how did we cope before we joined the common agricultural policy
Regards
DR

 

[ManOfSussex]

And equally the first date a NC vote can take place is the 4th Sept. If successful the government has 14 days to 'get confidence'. If they don't then the PM has to call a GE which is of the PMs choosing with certain parameters. There will be no GE before 31st October.

It'll be a nice old legal argument if Johnson loses a no confidence vote what, in practice, parliament is able to do in that 14 day period as the precedence has never occurred before. A national unity government to form or just carry on over the cliff?

Best of luck to Johnson trying to win a general election after a 31st October no deal in the ensuing chaos that he and his chums from school inflicted on everyone else though. No deal with us on our knees as a country and an international pariah will just lead to an inferior deal, sooner rather than later, for someone else to have to desperately sign up to as the grown ups try and clean up the mess.

 

[ManOfSussex]

I think in situation 2, many leavers will also kick off, once the reality bites.

It wont be a leave or remain thing, it'll be a case of who has their lives messed over the most. Shortages, disruption, panic buying, the pound tanking, prices rising, the start of winter, the run up to Christmas, sectarian issues in Northern Ireland, the devolved administrations in Cardiff and Edinburgh raising the ante, the backlash from abroad - I'm pretty sure Mr Johnson and Mr Rees-Mogg will just mention the spirit of the blitz and how it's all tremendous, jolly good fun and expect everyone to just roll up their sleeves and genuinely think that people will actually put up with it.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

So let me get this straight .... the EU all along, since May got her 'deal' have said they won't renegociate it yet when Gove says exactly the same as the EU it's BS ?

It should come as no surprise which side the #teameu crew on here are backing. The UK parliament has rejected the deal on numerous occasions and by a record margin, the UK parliament has also voted to show it would accept the deal if the backstop is changed, the UK government recognising this democratic reality has said the deal must change. The EU's response ... no renegotiation. Yet all they do is attack the UK government ...

 

[ManOfSussex]

It should come as no surprise which side the #teameu crew on here are backing. The UK parliament has rejected the deal on numerous occasions and by a record margin, the UK parliament has also voted to show it would accept the deal if the backstop is changed, the UK government recognising this democratic reality has said the deal must change. The EU's response ... no renegotiation. Yet all they do is attack the UK government ...

I asked you this the other day and got no response. Lets try again:

If The UK Government negotiated a Withdrawal Agreement in good faith based on each others red lines set down at the start, including the formulation of the backstop as per EU red lines that really didn't give them much wriggle room, and The UK and EU reached an agreement for The Withdrawal only for it to all fall down because the European Parliament wouldn't vote for it for 3 times, what would you have liked The UK Government to have done? Bearing in mind this is just The Withdrawal Agreement, would you trust them in the future now they've reneged on this? What about the UK Government's red lines? Would you like The UK to cut them the slack they need and have open borders, say at the channel ports? Lets say some arrogant, eccentric oddballs in the European Parliament, rather than The Westminster one, (educated at elite Swiss finishing schools rather than English Public ones) started talking vaguely about technological solutions without any details other than vague waffle? Would you think it sounds plausible? How do you think The EU rejecting it 3 times, having agreed it, would reflect on them globally? What do you think it does to their reputation? Would it make it look good? Lets say The EU Parliament is really bitterly divided on this too, like The EU as a whole is - what would you like The UK to do faced with all that?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Copied and pasted, but whenever leavers talk about respecting democracy, this is the reason, why I am fighting the referendum.

We hear a lot about Democracy on this page, but many seem to have little grasp of what it means.

Definition of democracy. 1a: government by the people especially: the rule of the majority. b: a government in which the supreme power is vested in the people and exercised by them directly or indirectly through a system of representation usually involving periodically held free elections.

This is worth reading as it does ask questions about our democratic process or lack of it. You can decide as you see fit.

In December 2018, lawyers representing the UK in EU Challenge – which is acting on behalf of British ex-pats living in specified EU countries – argued that Article 50 should be voided, given electoral and other irregularities. However, the court dismissed the case and Justice Ouseley said:

“It is difficult to see how the government could proceed if it had to wait for the outcome of an Electoral Commission investigation, keeping everyone – including the EU 27 – on the hook, waiting to see what the UK was going to do, or waiting for the conclusion of other investigations”.

In February 2019, an appeal was heard against that ruling. The same claimants argued it was unreasonable for the prime minister to proceed with Article 50, given what was known about the proven illegalities of the referendum. But the court refused to hear their appeal.

However, according to law lecturer and jurist Rob Palmer, first Treasury counsel Sir James Eadie QC, acting for the prime minister, admitted that May was fully aware of the unlawful aspects of the referendum campaign:

In the @UKEUchallenge it was also made clear that the PM is aware the referendum was unlawful:

'Unlawful' & 'illegal' (when referring to the ref) were brandished around the court by all – including the judges – as a matter of fact.

PM’s counsel said. 'The true position is that the PM is well aware of the notorious facts... well-published facts...of the EC findings, a fact of an appeal, police investigations, ICO, DCMS committees. All properly done...& it is perfectly obvious that the PM has decided to carry on'.

Vote Leave broke the law

In September 2018 the High Court ruled that Vote Leave, the official Leave campaign fronted by Conservative MPs Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, had broken the law in its overspend.

It did this by paying £625,000 to Darren Grimes for his BeLeave campaign, mostly via AggregateIQ, the Canada-based partner of discredited data miners Cambridge Analytica. According to the Electoral Commission, in total BeLeave spent more than £675,000 with Aggregate IQ under a common plan with Vote Leave.

Earlier, in July 2018, the Electoral Commission also ruled that Vote Leave broke electoral law by colluding with Grimes. Consequently, Vote Leave and Grimes were referred to the police. However, it appears the police have stalled that investigation. On who’s instruction is unclear.

Leave.EU broke the law

In February 2019 the Leave.EU campaign, fronted by Nigel Farage, and Eldon Insurance, owned by campaign funder Arron Banks, were fined £60,000 each for breaking direct marketing rules. 300,000 political messages were sent out on behalf of Leave.EU to Eldon’s customers. Hundreds of leaked emails showed Eldon staff working on the Leave campaign.
Banks was referred to the National Crime Agency, which is investigating whether he was the “true source” of £8m he donated to Leave.EU and Better for the Country Limited.

The Financial Conduct Authority is also investigating Banks’s labyrinthine financial affairs but very slowly.

Cover-up

Equally worrisome is the accusation that the Home Office was involved in a cover-up over Banks’s “finances and alleged relationships with foreign states” when May was the home secretary.

The Home Office has refused to confirm or deny whether it blocked an investigation. The Home Office went on to state that to do otherwise “would impede the future formulation of government policy”.

May is ignored legal rulings that ought to have seen the referendum declared null and void.

Her collusion in this merely succeeds in exposing the myth that Britain has a working democracy and, that sitting MPs and even the PM is not prepared to obey the laws that they make for the rest of us.

Strange, I thought your thousands of posts 'fighting the referendum' started way before any findings of supposed illegality.

Have you a link to that source?

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Strange, I thought your thousands of posts 'fighting the referendum' started way before any findings of supposed illegality.

Have you a link to that source?

There is no 'supposed' illegality. The fines and appeals are all sorted and paid.
Yes, you are right. I have been railing against the referendum since the result, especially when within days, people who had postal votes were only just receiving them, so thousands of those went astray.

 

[beorhthelm]

There is no 'supposed' illegality. The fines and appeals are all sorted and paid.

so that would be the end of that legal avenue.

 

[Lever]

There is no 'supposed' illegality. The fines and appeals are all sorted and paid.
Yes, you are right. I have been railing against the referendum since the result, especially when within days, people who had postal votes were only just receiving them, so thousands of those went astray.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unlawful_campaigning_in_the_2016_EU_referendum

It's all neatly laid out in the above link..... and STILL Leave ultras delude themselves that it is debatable. Trust me, they will be arguing that the value of the pound isn't really plummeting soon.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

so that would be the end of that legal avenue.

Avenue? Did you think it was leading somewhere?
The referendum was illegal, and as such the result is illegal.

 

[beorhthelm]

Avenue? Did you think it was leading somewhere?
The referendum was illegal, and as such the result is illegal.

thats not the conclusion of the legal action, as you said fines and appeals sorted. not productive to continue this when the main issue can be addressed by MPs revoking A50 or accepting the deal on offer.