[Politics] Brexit

[Lincoln Imp]

Always used to be the silhouette of a German soldier in my day-progress,eh.Perhaps it was just like the aircraft recognition pictures,making sure they shot the right one?

Goodness, were you in the armed forces?

 

[ManOfSussex]

I’m only sceptical because Corbyn (listening to Starmer and other advisors) may play the GE long game, putting a spanner in the works to kill this. I hope May and Corbyn can bury that bull.

I truly believe that May has deliberately stuffed the Tory hard brexiteers over this, so that even if one of them becomes PM, they will not be able to reverse what Corbyn/May/Commons agree. You can tell this by the barely veiled anger on Duncan-Smith’s face this lunchtime. This is not a trap for Labour, IMO.

She may have done. The proof will be in the eating of any pudding that materialises in the shape of a deal and it's legal position.

I'm surprised thus far that other than a junior Welsh minister, no resignations have occurred. That doesn't help my scepticism on the possibility of a deal, based on her previous red lines.

 

[Two Professors]

Goodness, were you in the armed forces?

That long ago now,I think Chieftain was a rank not a tank!

 

[vegster]

She may have done. The proof will be in the eating of any pudding that materialises in the shape of a deal and it's legal position.

I'm surprised thus far that other than a junior Welsh minister, no resignations have occurred. That doesn't help my scepticism on the possibility of a deal, based on her previous red lines.

The Brexit minister, Stephen Barclay, was spitting feathers this morning on the radio, " JC is not fit to run our economy and can't be trusted ".. Says the man who is a member of the party that has presided over 10 years of austerity and cuts across society.

 

[ManOfSussex]

So first it was Andrea Leadsom wanting to call direct rule for Northern Ireland something else so nobody would notice, now it's a different name for a customs union too. That's a cunning plan.

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[Weststander]

She may have done. The proof will be in the eating of any pudding that materialises in the shape of a deal and it's legal position.

I'm surprised thus far that other than a junior Welsh minister, no resignations have occurred. That doesn't help my scepticism on the possibility of a deal, based on her previous red lines.

Perhaps the Cabinet’s running out of devout Brexiteers, after almost three years of resignations?

 

[Baldseagull]

There shouldnt be.
I am assuming of course what i thought would be the obvious natural process.
A pro rejoin party, if they won an election would stand on a ticket of submitting an application to join the EU. Negotiating terms of joining would then be concluded and this would then be put to the vote. You would know before voting about schengen, the euro etc.
Worth bearing in mind before the usual protests it is entirely possible to negotiate terms of joining before deciding to join but you cant negotiate terms of leaving until you have decided to leave.

So not a fair parallel to draw then, if UKIP had won an election and somehow had managed to negotiate exactly what our future relationship was going to look like before we had a referendum, assuming there was no illegality surrounding the referendum, then there would be no grounds for ratifying the deal if it was as described.

But imagine some party standing for joining was eating away at the Tory vote, and a Tory Leader stated they would hold a referendum on joining to try and stop that, but never really thought people would vote to join, so didn't have a plan for what terms of joining would be sought, and just held a simple join or stay out referendum. The join campaigners then painted the rosiest picture of membership possible, and won, but it then became apparent that the preferential membership they promised was going to be easy to get, because we hold all the cards and they need us more than we need them, was just wishful thinking and was not going to be offered. What was on offer actually caused a real problem for one part of the UK, and would need some sort of device to keep it effectively out of the EU whilst the rest of UK joined, or we would be breaking a treaty that had ended a thirty year period of terrorism and violence, in which more than 100 people a year were killed on average.

Surely you would support asking whether the terms of joining were acceptable to the Citizens of the UK, in those circumstances?

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Indeed. And of course, where all the resignations from outraged ERG and loons?

All mouth and no trousers.

Look how many resignations there have been already. There'll be nobody left in government soon.

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[KZNSeagull]

Look how many resignations there have been already. There'll be nobody left in government soon.

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Another one gone in the last half hour. Chris Heaton-Harris, Junior Brexit Minister. No, I haven't heard of him either.

 

[CHAPPERS]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...s-secretly-run-by-staff-of-lynton-crosby-firm

A series of hugely influential Facebook advertising campaigns that appear to be separate grassroots movements for a no-deal Brexit are secretly overseen by employees of Sir Lynton Crosby’s lobbying company and a former adviser to Boris Johnson, documents seen by the Guardian reveal.

The mysterious groups, which have names such as Mainstream Network and Britain’s Future, appear to be run independently by members of the public and give no hint that they are connected. But in reality they share an administrator who works for Crosby’s CTF Partners and have spent as much as £1m promoting sophisticated targeted adverts aimed at heaping pressure on individual MPs to vote for a hard Brexit.

Repeated questions have been raised about who is backing at least a dozen high-spending groups that have flooded MPs’ inboxes with calls to reject Theresa May’s deal, but until now they were thought to be independent entities.

But according to the documents, almost all the major pro-Brexit Facebook “grassroots” advertising campaigns in the UK share the same page admins or advertisers. These individuals include employees of CTF Partners and the political director of Boris Johnson’s campaigns to be mayor of London, who has worked closely with Crosby in the past.

Their collective Facebook expenditure swamps the amount spent in the last six months by all the UK’s major political parties and the UK government combined. They have paid for thousands of different targeted Facebook ads encouraging members of the public to write to their local MPs and call for the toughest possible exit from the EU, creating the impression of organic public opposition to Theresa May’s deal.

Crosby’s secretive lobbying company CTF Partners has come under increasing scrutiny in recent months. Leaked documents have revealed how it boasts of its ability to run fake online grassroots campaigns that encourage users to join an online community and then be “mobilised to communicate directly with key decision-makers”, whether to delegitimise the Qatari government or convince people that burning coal is good.


The Australian political strategist has also been repeatedly linked to a potential Conservative leadership campaign by Johnson, having been lined up to run the former foreign secretary’s abortive 2016 bid for the same position. CTF Partners gave Johnson an interest-free loan of £23,000 – subsequently repaid – in January, while the company already employs arch-Brexiter former Tory MP Stewart Jackson in an advisory role and paid for ex-Brexit secretary David Davis to go on trips.

Mainstream Network attracted attention last year when it was exposed for spending at least £250,000 to reach more than 10 million voters with adverts urging voters to email their local MP and urging them to “chuck Chequers”, alongside articles criticising George Soros’s involvement in the remain campaign. After it attracted attention it was abruptly shut down.

Although Facebook has substantially increased the level of transparency around political advertising in recent months, all that is required to run such a campaign is a publicly-named individual who is registered to a UK postal address or contact details for a public organisation. There is no true disclosure around a campaign’s financial backers and no UK law requiring financial transparency outside an election period.

After the closure of the Mainstream Network site, similar adverts began appearing on a Facebook page named Britain’s Future, whose public frontman is a former Two Pints Of Lager And A Packet Of Crisps scriptwriter named Tim Dawson who later became a Conservative council candidate.

The group hit the headlines last month when it was revealed it was the biggest single UK political advertiser on Facebook, spending £422,000 on adverts campaigning for a hard Brexit despite never declaring its financial backers.

According to the documents seen by the Guardian, individuals with the ability to place adverts on both the Mainstream Network and Britain’s Future page include Reuben Solomon, whom multiple sources identified as an employee of Crosby’s CTF Partners.

He did not respond to a request for comment but a relative, who previously lived with him at an address in north London, confirmed to the Guardian that Solomon worked for Crosby.

According to the documents, other individuals with oversight of the Mainstream Network Facebook page include Charles Carroll and Alex Crowley.

Carroll, who deleted his LinkedIn profile after the Guardian began to seek comment for this article, also works for Crosby’s CTF Partners, according to a cached version of the page.

Crowley was employed by Boris Johnson as his political adviser during his period as mayor of London, later writing a book about his experience working closely with Crosby on campaigns. He later went on to run a political campaigning company and became political director on Zac Goldsmith’s ill-fated mayoral bid.

The Brexit supporter said his involvement in Mainstream Network was because “some who disliked the result have been actively trying to overturn it”. He did not comment on his links to Crosby but said: “I wanted to see the result actually delivered and give a voice to that majority so the democratic result is honoured.”

Dawson, the public face of Britain’s Future, declined to comment on who has funded his enormous Facebook ad campaign or whether it was linked to Crosby or the Mainstream Network, instead saying he simply wanted to represent 17.4 million Brexit voters, adding: “This is my way of getting the point across to those in Westminster that the government should honour its manifesto and that the current deal is not what we voted for.”

Solomon, the CTF employee, is also connected to a page called We Are the 52%, which has spent more than £50,000 on pro-Brexit Facebook adverts and is fronted by a Conservative activist and former Vote Leave staffer Theodora Dickinson.

Dickinson declined to comment on any links between her group and Crosby’s company but said remain campaigners “are using similar tactics and spending more” without fully declaring their financial backers, highlighting the £370,000 expenditure on Facebook adverts by the People’s Vote campaign and the £300,000 spent by Best for Britain.

Solomon is also listed as an administrator on at least a dozen other pro-Brexit pages, which typically mix campaigning content with other unrelated interests and appear to have also spent money running an unknown number of pro-Brexit adverts. Pages used for the messaging include Small Business for Great Britain, Northern Industry, and Protecting British Heritage.

The House of Commons digital, culture, media and sport select committee, which has led the way on investigating online disinformation, has repeatedly called for Facebook to reveal the identities of those who were funding Mainstream Network, suggesting they crossed an ethical line.

“I believe there is a strong public interest in understanding who is behind the Mainstream Network, and that this information should be published,” said the committee’s chairman, Damian Collins, last month after Facebook refused to identify the individuals behind the page.

“People should have a right to know who is targeting them with political advertisements and why. That is why the committee had called for a change in the law to outlaw these kind of dark adverts from secret campaigns,” he said.

Although the documents point towards the individuals who are running the campaigns, it remains unclear who is ultimately picking up the substantial bill for this attempt to persuade MPs there is a grassroots uprising for a hard Brexit.

CTF Partners, Carroll, and Solomon did not respond to requests for comment.

 

[peterward]

Any second referendum should be May's Deal or Remain. This No Deal bullshit has got to stop.

Nobody really believes No Deal can be a success, apart from those who can personally profit from it.

not right.......... over half of people who voted leave want no deal was polled a couple of days ago (which is actually lots of mini deals and off the shelf WTO trading rules), youre believing the scare mongering of establishment project fear who've made no end of dire financial predictions and been wrong in every one.

WTO will not be without short term disruption, it also wont be some sort of apocolypse that is being portrayed.

When we are out, the game is up for the EU fanatics and thus why there determined to never let us fully escape whether by chicanery or outright deceit.

Is it any wonder the remain side exaggerates WTO (which is what we trade with 90% of the world with). Do you understand that all of these WTO ("no deal") predictions statistics assume we don't make any more trade deals again and assume we are WTO with the whole world v's current EU single market/CU stats..,. The reality is pretty quickly we'll start changing the WTO status arrangements with many non EU countries, inc USA and China and at some point we'll also get something better than WTO with the EU. The reason the EU and remainers are desperate for us to remain in a customs union is twofold. 1) it keep us locked closely to the EU with regulatory convergence making a second phase of full remain an easier step and 2) the biggest nightmare for the EU (as we're the first to vote to leave) is to have a successful UK on the shores of the EU acting as a guiding light and example to other liberal free market economies, in the stagnating french industrial model, protectionist EU......The EU fanatics biggest fear is more leaving and a potential break up of the United states of Europe political fantasy. CU and backstop (containing CU indefinitely) is primarily to clip the UK's trading wings and prevent the UK proving it is more competitive and can massively outperform the EU economically.

 

[LlcoolJ]

Let’s have a charity bet for REMF then?

Merkel and german business, will do all they can to ensure there is no hard Brexit, which would be very damaging for the powerhouse of Europe. Since when has Macron been the deciding factor ... his thugs are too busy clubbing protestors.

Yes Macron has been all mouth and no trousers at running his own country, let alone making decisions regarding any others.

 

[Simster]

WTO will not be without short term disruption, it also wont be some sort of apocolypse that is being portrayed.

That's lovely. Tell me again why anyone should believe this?

Alternatively, with polls suggesting leave has been behind in every poll conducted since January 2018, you might also want to tell us what chance leave would ever have had if we'd been told we'd get no deal from the outset.

If Brexit is to signed off by the Commons, there has to be a chance that life would get better for the people, and no deal clearly doesn't deliver that.

 

[peterward]

That's lovely. Tell me again why anyone should believe this?

Alternatively, with polls suggesting leave has been behind in every poll conducted since January 2018, you might also want to tell us what chance leave would ever have had if we'd been told we'd get no deal from the outset.

If Brexit is to signed off by the Commons, there has to be a chance that life would get better for the people, and no deal clearly doesn't deliver that.

the polls are exactly the same as they were before June 2016, and what happened?

 

[Weststander]

Yes Macron has been all mouth and no trousers at running his own country, let alone making decisions regarding any others.

Macron’s a right wing banker, who briefly tricked a majority of the population (and a few drooling NSC’ers), that he was for the common man. Now hated by the majority of the French electorate, who soon cottoned on to his attacks on codes protecting workers rights.

He’s certainly no Merkel.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

the polls are exactly the same as they were before June 2016, and what happened?

I don't know about you but it seems the undemocratic loons in this country assume another vote will almost certainly end up in a Remain win (they wouldn't be vociferously calling for one if Leave had a clear lead in the polls obviously). This maybe because as ususual they think their world view is always right and their narrative of betrayal and lies/ it's all Brexiteers fault is widely held. Shirley the very same arrogant complacency couldn't come back to bite them again .... could it

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Even God is getting angry at all the duplicitous whiners insisting that the thickies vote again ..

 

[vegster]

Another one gone in the last half hour. Chris Heaton-Harris, Junior Brexit Minister. No, I haven't heard of him either.

Love the way they all take the decision to quit as a minister or PPS but they never quit as an MP though do they ? As a pal of mine say's " It's not about the principles, it Is about the money "

 

[Weststander]

Love the way they all take the decision to quit as a minister or PPS but they never quit as an MP though do they ? As a pal of mine say's " It's not about the principles, it Is about the money "

.... and to keep their vital vote as Hard Brexiteers.

 

[LlcoolJ]

Don't suppose it really matters who is in the cabinet at the moment. It's completely dysfunctional anyway.