[Politics] Brexit

[jimhigham]

Turning to today's "emergency budget" story, one has to ask why we are only being advised of this eight days before the referendum? The pledge to renegotiate with Brussels and to present that to the UK electorate in the form of a referendum was in the Conservative manifesto for last year's general election. Therefore, even the theoretical possibility of a British exit from the EU has been on the table for some time. Given that this is the case one would have thought that something as significant as £30 billion should have been known when calling the in/out vote and put to the public, centre stage on day one.

This just has the feel of another back of a fag packet scare story. People seem to feel this in their bones and this probably accounts for the recent swing towards exit in the polls. I'm a very half-hearted "remainer" but I can absolutely see why people are leaning the other way. Even in a massively over-simplified debate the remain campaign has been pitiful.

 

[Bold Seagull]

I imagine "free movement of our citizens" will be high up the list of demands if/when we start trade negotiations.

'Demands', do you also imagine we hold the stronger hand that we'll be going back to the table after leaving with demands?

 

[Driver8]

The Sun backs Leave

'Demands', do you also imagine we hold the stronger hand that we'll be going back to the table after leaving with demands?

I mean their demands not ours. I was agreeing with you.

 

[Bold Seagull]

I mean their demands not ours. I was agreeing with you.

Oh I see, ha ha, I've been posting too much today!

 

[The Rivet]

Remain or Leave, Tory, Labour, Lib Dem or one of the rest. Politicians have proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that they lie to and manipulate the electorate either for their gain or the lobbyists (big business). The whole political edifice in this country has dry rot. If you were this devious in any other life/trade you'd eventually end up in a court of law!

 

[drew]

So you must think the 10 year prediction is gut instinct also?

Quelle surprise, no answer.

However, to answer your question, you referred to the short term and JITW asked if you thought 10 years equals the short term which you didn't really answer.

 

[cunning fergus]

Turning to today's "emergency budget" story, one has to ask why we are only being advised of this eight days before the referendum? The pledge to renegotiate with Brussels and to present that to the UK electorate in the form of a referendum was in the Conservative manifesto for last year's general election. Therefore, even the theoretical possibility of a British exit from the EU has been on the table for some time. Given that this is the case one would have thought that something as significant as £30 billion should have been known when calling the in/out cote and put to the public, centre stage on day one.

This just has the feel of another back of a fag packet scare story. People seem to feel this is their bones and this probably accounts for the recent swing towards exit in the polls. I'm a very half-hearted "remainer" but I can absolutely see why people are leaning the other way. Even in a massively over-simplified debate the remain campaign has been pitiful.

Indeed, there is still an awful lot of fat in the current budget, someone should tell George before he starts on about cutting Budgets.

http://www.theweek.co.uk/63394/where-exactly-does-britains-122bn-foreign-aid-go

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Well, yes and no. Democracy generally works by electing knowledgeable, experienced people to represent us and making informed decisions on our behalf. I can accept anyone making a decision if its informed, what I worry about here is people making a choice based on nothing of the sort. I mean, look at that Telegraph article posted by larus a couple of posts up - women choosing which way to vote based on 'not liking to be lectured to by condescending men' - thats no way to make a decision of this importance.

I think the point here is that in a democracy people are free to make their decisions on whichever criteria they choose. For every Leaver's motive you disagree with I could counter with Remainers who are cowed by ridiculous scare stories or whatever. Elected representatives are also known to vote basis their own agendas. The point is that democracy is imperfect but it is what makes us free. Whichever side loses should not query the democratic will of the people as the alternative is rule by the so-called experts of a dictatorship.

 

[Acker79]

If the question of whether or not to leave the EU wasn't as big as it is, I'd find it amusing how the Leave side used scaremongering tactics, got a lead in the polls, now the Remain side are trying to use scare tactics, and the Leave side are criticising them for it and it seems to be backfiring on the Remain side.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Turning to today's "emergency budget" story, one has to ask why we are only being advised of this eight days before the referendum? The pledge to renegotiate with Brussels and to present that to the UK electorate in the form of a referendum was in the Conservative manifesto for last year's general election. Therefore, even the theoretical possibility of a British exit from the EU has been on the table for some time. Given that this is the case one would have thought that something as significant as £30 billion should have been known when calling the in/out vote and put to the public, centre stage on day one.

This just has the feel of another back of a fag packet scare story. People seem to feel this in their bones and this probably accounts for the recent swing towards exit in the polls. I'm a very half-hearted "remainer" but I can absolutely see why people are leaning the other way. Even in a massively over-simplified debate the remain campaign has been pitiful.

Good post. And it answers the question as to why 5 women in the hairdresser ridiculed the remain scare story. Remain has simply delivered one scare story after another which has completely desensitised people. The general public have a massive distrust of politicians at the moment, so it was never going to be a good idea to use this tactic.

Sent from the boot of Lingard

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

If the question of whether or not to leave the EU wasn't as big as it is, I'd find it amusing how the Leave side used scaremongering tactics, got a lead in the polls, now the Remain side are trying to use scare tactics, and the Leave side are criticising them for it and it seems to be backfiring on the Remain side.

No. You remember wrong. The remain campaign has used scare tactics all along just as the leave campaign has. It is only recently that the polls have turned. The trouble for remain is that most people agree with leave that there is too much immigration. That leaves remain with an unfocused message.

'Mortgages will go up, jobs will be lost, we'll have to put taxes up, foreign holidays will cost more, food pieces will rise.......'

Boring and unimaginative. Let's hear from remain how great the EU is. I don't think we will though because leave is populated by people such as Jeremy Corbyn who when asked how many points he'd give the EU, answered '7' when we all knew that what he really really wanted to say was '1'.

Sent from the boot of Lingard

 

[The Rivet]

No. You remember wrong. The remain campaign has used scare tactics all along just as the leave campaign has. It is only recently that the polls have turned. The trouble for remain is that most people agree with leave that there is too much immigration. That leaves remain with an unfocused message.

'Mortgages will go up, jobs will be lost, we'll have to put taxes up, foreign holidays will cost more, food pieces will rise.......'

Boring and unimaginative. Let's hear from remain how great the EU is. I don't think we will though because leave is populated by people such as Jeremy Corbyn who when asked how many points he'd give the EU, answered '7' when we all knew that what he really really wanted to say was '1'.

Sent from the boot of Lingard

I can remember 15% interest rates in the day, The EU was the EEC (before we were sold out), Taxes were still punitive, foreign holidays a real rarity! I am happy to put up with some of this again so eventually my grandchildren (if I have them) who may not be 'high achievers' will be able to buy a house in their own country. THEIR security NOT someone else's. Corbyn will seek solace with his soul when he faces Lenin in another world.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

I can remember 15% interest rates in the day, The EU was the EEC (before we were sold out), Taxes were still punitive, foreign holidays a real rarity! I am happy to put up with some of this again so eventually my grandchildren (if I have them) who may not be 'high achievers' will be able to buy a house in their own country. THEIR security NOT someone else's. Corbyn will seek solace with his soul when he faces Lenin in another world.

I can also remember my friend almost crying when the rates were hiked after the collapse of the erm. Good for you that you are prepared for the possibility of some pain, for long term gain!

Sent from the boot of Lingard

 

[Half Time Pies]

Not surprisingly you are missing the point.

This survey proves that 9 out of 10 EU workers earn less than 22k, therefore they are low paid and competing with our own British low paid working class.

Your sense of prejudice that British people are not in low paid jobs, competing with this cohort of EU citizens is absurd.

In the last 2 days finally Labour MPs that are pro remain are conceding that the traditional working class is lost to them for this reason, check out Rachel Reeves on the politics show yesterday explaining that her constituents (in a traditional labour constituency) were voting leave.

This truth, is not to ignore the other truth that if 90% of EU migrants earn less than 22k their tax contribution is risible.

Its quite ironic that we are talking about migrants taking British jobs on the day that record employment figures have been released and unemployment is at 5% the lowest it has been since 2005! Anyway rather than your supposition about migrant contributions lets talk facts...according to HMRC figures EU migrants that had arrived in Britain within the last 4 years paid £2.54bn more in income tax and national insurance than they received in tax credits or child benefit in 2013-14. So hardly a laughable amount.

I realise that you Leave campaigners don't hold much weight to expert opinion (pretty much ignoring pretty much every notable economists view that staying in the EU would be better for the British economy) however the following report for London School of Economics highlights the empirical evidence that shows conclusively that EU immigration has not had significantly adverse effects on average employment, wages, inequality or public services at the local level for people born in the UK.

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

The report shows that:

- EU immigrants are more educated, younger, more likely to be in work and less likely to claim benefits than the UK-born. About 44% have some form of higher education compared with only 23% of the UK-born.

- that the areas of the UK with large increases in EU immigration did not suffer greater falls in the jobs and pay of UK-born workers. The big falls in wages after 2008 are due to the global financial crisis and a weak economic recovery, not to immigration.

- There is also little effect of EU immigration on inequality through reducing the pay and jobs of less skilled UK workers. Changes in wages and joblessness for less skilled UK-born workers show little correlation with changes in EU immigration.

- EU immigrants pay more in taxes than they use public services and therefore they help to reduce the budget deficit. Immigrants do not have a negative effect on local services such as education, health or social housing; nor do they have any effect on social instability as indicated by crime rates.

"The bottom line, which may surprise many people, is that EU immigration has not harmed the pay, jobs or public services enjoyed by Britons. In fact, for the most part it has likely made us better off. So far from EU immigration being a 'necessary evil' that we pay to get access to the greater trade and foreign investment generated by the EU Single Market, immigration is at worse neutral and at best, another economic benefit."

 

[hans kraay fan club]

Three questions.

1) do you feel the same about Sinn Fein MPs that take expenses and don't turn up to Parliament?

2) do you think those that vote for Sinn Fein care about the conduct of their MPs?

3) do you think the Sinn Fein MPs and their electorates would prefer delivery of their cause or the status quo?

Replace Sinn Fein with UKIP and You will get a sense of some people's motives.

As for Farage himself, there is one attribute he does deserve credit for, not least in comparison to fellow eurosceptic Corbyn, a man whose strong anti EU beliefs go back publicly far longer than Farage.

One has the strength of his political beliefs, the other, just like his predecessor Kinnock doesn't.

You might not like that, and it pains me, but it's the truth........and why labour support is being shredded in traditional working class constituencies.

I understand the why you've drawn the SF comparison, but the two things are really not the same. Much as I disagree with all they stand for, the history as they see it would excuse their means.

Our relationship with / membership of the EU is not remotely comparable, IMO.

To answer your questions though, 1. Yes I do. 2. Probably not. 3. Mostly their cause, though I'm not sure they all really know what their ultimate aim is anymore.

Back to Farage - you give him way too much credit IMO. His politic beliefs are strong when it suits him, but he's happy to ignore them when it suits - such as employing his wife.

 

[The Rivet]

HT Pies, you are on a hiding to nothing trying to PROVE points against Cunning. I'll get the pringles.................

 

[The Rivet]

Its quite ironic that we are talking about migrants taking British jobs on the day that record employment figures have been released and unemployment is at 5% the lowest it has been since 2005! Anyway rather than your supposition about migrant contributions lets talk facts...according to HMRC figures EU migrants that had arrived in Britain within the last 4 years paid £2.54bn more in income tax and national insurance than they received in tax credits or child benefit in 2013-14. So hardly a laughable amount.

I realise that you Leave campaigners don't hold much weight to expert opinion (pretty much ignoring pretty much every notable economists view that staying in the EU would be better for the British economy) however the following report for London School of Economics highlights the empirical evidence that shows conclusively that EU immigration has not had significantly adverse effects on average employment, wages, inequality or public services at the local level for people born in the UK.

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

The report shows that:

- EU immigrants are more educated, younger, more likely to be in work and less likely to claim benefits than the UK-born. About 44% have some form of higher education compared with only 23% of the UK-born.

- that the areas of the UK with large increases in EU immigration did not suffer greater falls in the jobs and pay of UK-born workers. The big falls in wages after 2008 are due to the global financial crisis and a weak economic recovery, not to immigration.

- There is also little effect of EU immigration on inequality through reducing the pay and jobs of less skilled UK workers. Changes in wages and joblessness for less skilled UK-born workers show little correlation with changes in EU immigration.

- EU immigrants pay more in taxes than they use public services and therefore they help to reduce the budget deficit. Immigrants do not have a negative effect on local services such as education, health or social housing; nor do they have any effect on social instability as indicated by crime rates.

"The bottom line, which may surprise many people, is that EU immigration has not harmed the pay, jobs or public services enjoyed by Britons. In fact, for the most part it has likely made us better off. So far from EU immigration being a 'necessary evil' that we pay to get access to the greater trade and foreign investment generated by the EU Single Market, immigration is at worse neutral and at best, another economic benefit."

Having re-read your post. I wouldn't employ you. Too ideally driven and you spout mantra like your fingers themselves are cutting and pasting as you soak up the spin. I felt like that when I was young. Such a shame but it figures. In hindsight I'll employ you on £25,000 for ten years, want it?

 

[Maldini]

Quelle surprise, no answer.

However, to answer your question, you referred to the short term and JITW asked if you thought 10 years equals the short term which you didn't really answer.

No I don't think 10 years is a short term and I don't think it will be 10 however as I said compared to a lifetime in the EU even if it were 10 years well that's fine.

 

[The Rivet]

I understand the why you've drawn the SF comparison, but the two things are really not the same. Much as I disagree with all they stand for, the history as they see it would excuse their means.

Our relationship with / membership of the EU is not remotely comparable, IMO.

To answer your questions though, 1. Yes I do. 2. Probably not. 3. Mostly their cause, though I'm not sure they all really know what their ultimate aim is anymore.

Back to Farage - you give him way too much credit IMO. His politic beliefs are strong when it suits him, but he's happy to ignore them when it suits - such as employing his wife.

Lame.

 

[osgood]

The point I was making is that he isn't earning £2m year now which was implied.

Dunno wjhat hes "earning" now , , but he must be working Really hard if hes getting £2m per annum ,or he may have found more (ahem) employment within the EU !