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[Politics] Brexit

If there was a second Brexit referendum how would you vote?


  • Total voters
    1,099


Gwylan

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
31,823
Uffern
Labour's strategy isnt as looking as far ahead as that, they believe they can force an election in the next few months and will vote against the government regardless.

I've heard people say this, but how? Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act, they'd need two-thirds of the House to agree. Even if ALL the Tory Brexiteers voted it for it AND all the DUP, Iit still wouldn't make two-thirds. And the DUP have said, quiet categorically, they wouldn't do anything that would bring down the government. The mathematics just don't add up.
 




Dave the OAP

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
46,760
at home
Did we actually officially ask for it, though I recall outrage at the Belgian refusal to sell us ammunition, I think it was. That is not to say that NATO didn't back us. However, I think you will find that we received masses of intelligence help from the Americans. I hope that what you say will indeed be the case - but that depends on what is meant by the idea of a EU Army. If we have to "give" say 5000 troops to the EU Army, then we do of course keep the bulk of our Forces at our disposal. But I suspect that the arch-federalists would only want an institution whereby they have total control over all military units throughout the Block.


Didn't the French supply the argentine military with Exocet missiles...in fact ramped up the delivery whilst the conflict was going on even though thatcher's government asked them not to...I seem to think the Haig from the US had meetings with the NATO at the time, but of course the French were not in nato!
 




hans kraay fan club

The voice of reason.
Helpful Moderator
Mar 16, 2005
62,758
Chandlers Ford
Perhaps you should try reading the treaty before spouting your usual inane guff,and then learn the difference between NATO and the United Nations.:thumbsup:

The Treaty does detail a geographical area of interest, but it is absolutely not restrictive in reality.

NATO (not the UN) have been active in all the places I've listed, just as they could have been in the Falklands.
 








studio150

Well-known member
Jul 30, 2011
30,218
On the Border
And the A means Atlantic - a majority of NATO members have no borders with the Atlantic. Regardless, the NATO pledge is to assist any member who is attacked - the Falklands were British ( and sill are ) and therefore, in theory, NATO should have assisted.

Sorry,but I will have to disagree with you there.The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation was formed basically to provide defence against the USSR blocking reinforcements crossing the North Atlantic from the USA/Canada in the event of a European conflict breaking out.Much the same scenario as when the Germans tried to block the North Atlantic with U-boats and commerce raiders.

For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:

on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France 2, on the territory of Turkey or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;
on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.


So the Falkland Islands do not fall under Article 5 of the Treaty and therefore no requirement for NATO members to respond with assistance
 


Blue Valkyrie

Not seen such Bravery!
Sep 1, 2012
32,165
Valhalla
I've heard people say this, but how? Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act, they'd need two-thirds of the House to agree. Even if ALL the Tory Brexiteers voted it for it AND all the DUP, Iit still wouldn't make two-thirds. And the DUP have said, quiet categorically, they wouldn't do anything that would bring down the government. The mathematics just don't add up.
A vote of confidence still requires 50% + 1. Then there are attempts to form an alternative Government. If not possible, then a General Election.
 




beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
36,002
I've heard people say this, but how? Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act, they'd need two-thirds of the House to agree. Even if ALL the Tory Brexiteers voted it for it AND all the DUP, Iit still wouldn't make two-thirds. And the DUP have said, quiet categorically, they wouldn't do anything that would bring down the government. The mathematics just don't add up.

tell that to Corbyn and co. they appear to believe they can defeat the government, make it a confidence issue, and the government loses that, calls a GE.

and May is daft enough to let them have a go. keep on ruling out another referendum "under any circumstances", leaves them open to this risk. first rule of politics should be dont rule anything out.
 


Tubby-McFat-Fuc

Well-known member
May 2, 2013
1,845
Brighton
Very interesting post. Your view is probably exactly the same as Corbyn's. I suppose a lot of this is about who we hang around with. I rarely discuss Brexit with people in my daily life, any more than (to pull up one of your analogies) the existence of god. I occasionally have a look at this thread. Regarding people talking bollocks on the thread and flouncing off and coming back days later with more of the same.....certainly there are several posters I have blocked who do this. All but one are Brexitters. So I am not sure that only Brexiters comprise of mild mannered reasonable non flouncing stout fellows, if that's what you were implying. :rolleyes:

I am also a bit confused over whether you think Brexit is inevitable because it is the best thing, or that you can't see it going well because May and everyone else seem incapable of coming up with a deal acceptable to all. I somehow doubt that the majority of the population feel as you seem to, that it isn't worth worrying about, and we may as well have a no deal Brexit and move on. Maybe I'm wrong - the level of apathy and disengagement among the population is probably much higher than I care to imagine.

It strikes me that if, after 2 years, the leader (who is measured, lacking in a bit of political nous, but basically decent) cannot come up with a plan that can be supported by British Brexitters, as it seems, then how can she hope to secure a deal with the Europeans? It seems to me that a no deal Brexit, or some ghastly deal that Brexitters will call a sell-out, are inevitable. If that is the option it won't be just me calling for a second referendum (not that I am actually calling for one - I simply see it as inevitable). Her own MPs arelikely to do so. Plenty of them. Perhaps not enough without the support of labour (and that is probably the main area of uncertainty now - how will they jump?).

As for Brexitters winning hands down if here is an R2, well, you may be right, but I would actually be prepared to bet that Remain would win. Incidentally a few years ago I predicted on NSC that Brexit would win, and that Trump would be elected PM so this is not the beer talking (anyway, it is morningtime, ???). I also predicted that Corbyn would become PM. None of these things I desired. So....I just can't see people like me, an unenthusiastic remainer, voting Brexit in R2 just because it would seem to be a betrayal of all those good people who previously voted leave to not do so. I'd like to say I have a huge amount of respect for leavers, especially the 'no deal' leavers like Mr one-sentence shouty on NSC, but.....I don't. I feel a bit sorry for Brexitters in that if they still can't see how mad it all is they must be mad themselves, but I don't feel enough loyalty to their sovereign referendum decision (???) to vote leave if given another chance.

I would like to see if anyone reading this thread who voted remain would vote leave if there is another vote, out of respect for the 'will of the people' or however one might pharse it. Folks, step up and declare thyselves!

Last but not least, cheers for you polite and thoughtful reply :thumbsup:
Yay, at last a grown up on the thread with different view to me that doesn't call me thick or talk down with knowledge they don't have!!! Thank you sir!

To compare me to Corbyn is a worry!! lol I hate the little weasel.

For what its worth, I think brexit is inevitable. It's going to happen. Will it be pretty. No chance! It's going to be a complete mess, and I can see it being delayed for a year or so, but I am certain it will happen.

As a lifelong Tory, I hoped we had the new Mrs T when May got the job. But the women is an embarrassment, as is the Tory party for leaving her in power when we made such a mess of the last General Election. Surely any one with any sense would not have out this woman in charge of negotiating the buying buying of biscuits for afternoon tea, yet she is still PM, and IMO is challenging Gordon Brown for the worst PM in my 50 or so years, and I never thought I would see that happen.

But whilst I think it will be a mess, I don't think a no deal will be as bad as everyone thinks it will be. I just look at at the panic and lies about what would happen if we voted to leave the EU. Sure the pound dipped, but all the panic and pain that was pridicted to happened straight after the vote didn't. I am sure there is a harsh year or so ahead, but nothing that will be too drastic,

As for the EU, without us I think they are buggered. How long will or can Germany prop it up? Worryingly the far right is starting to get a hold across Europe, and I don't see this reserving when we leave the EU. If fact I think it's going to get a lot worse. How long can it survive off the back of Germany. Germany will want more and more say to keep its people happy, and they will get it. If they become the main or only contributors, they will have to have more power or the far right will continue to gain strength, and we will know how that could end up.

I think its a much wider problem facing Europe that the UK leaving the EU. If we were to remain, I think the EU will still go down, and Germany will rise, but without us I think its going to happen a lot quicker than people.

As for the UK, I think after the first year or so, we will flourish. I don't think we need the EU as much as people think.

As for PM May, the sooner this waste of space is removed the better, but what alternative is there.

What opposition is there!? Corbyn should be miles ahead in the polls right now. Labour would be just as bad, if not worse than the Tory's. That's more of a problem in my eyes than Brexit, the weakness of politics over all. For years the average person view has been suppressed to the point your racist, sexist, or what ever elseist, is you do not agree with the vocal minority. And from that, the far right, or far left (they merge into one if they go far enough) are rising, and that is going to be bad news for everyone.

Off course the country can worry about Brexit, Snowflakes, what Corbyn is wearing, who's going to win big brother, and who is shagging who on Strictly, but under the surface I think there is a timebomb waiting to go off, and it will probably go bang in Europe first, and a lot sooner than people are ready for. Now I've got to get back to work so earn my fortune, so I can **** off South when it all goes Pete Tong.
 






Two Professors

Two Mad Professors
Jul 13, 2009
7,617
Multicultural Brum
The Treaty does detail a geographical area of interest, but it is absolutely not restrictive in reality.

NATO (not the UN) have been active in all the places I've listed, just as they could have been in the Falklands.

I would stop digging.Forces from NATO countries may well have been involved in these conflicts,but under the auspices of the United Nations and even,in the case of the anti-piracy patrols in Somalia,the EU.
 


Gwylan

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
31,823
Uffern
A vote of confidence still requires 50% + 1. Then there are attempts to form an alternative Government. If not possible, then a General Election.

Which is what happened to Callaghan. BUt if May were defeated in a no confidence vote, it's no longer the case that there'd be a GE. The Tories would appoint another leader and he/she would carry on as PM.
 








Jan 30, 2008
31,981
[MENTION=27463]Tubby-McFat-Fuc[/MENTION]

Reading my post back, i'm sorry if it sounds patronising. It's just that I have been explaining the basics of 'no deal' to 'no deal' supporters constantly and it does get frustrating, even if I wasn't a grumpy old sod. Here's just a few examples

Here to Westdene Seagull
https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/showthread.php?343854-BrExit-the-countdown-to-11PM-GMT-on-Friday-29th-of-March-2019&p=8499772&viewfull=1#post8499772

Here to melias shoes
https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/showthread.php?343854-BrExit-the-countdown-to-11PM-GMT-on-Friday-29th-of-March-2019&p=8635277&highlight=#post8635277

Here to BigGully
https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/showt...f-March-2019&p=8575131&viewfull=1#post8575131

Here to Two Profs
https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/showthread.php?343854-BrExit-the-countdown-to-11PM-GMT-on-Friday-29th-of-March-2019&p=8490467&viewfull=1#post8490467


I think the problem is that people are thinking that 'no deal' is a simple solution to the clusterf*** we now find ourselves in. If anything, it is far more complex, introducing more players to the negotiations (some more powerful than the EU) and requiring huge amounts of infrastructure. Even if we ignore all the WTO negotiations we still have

The NI/Ireland Border
The New customs posts
The new Lorry Parks at all ports
The design, building and testing of the new IT systems to run the WTO tariffs and rules (once agreed)
The recruitment and training of the new staff to run the new systems/rules etc

It certainly isn't going to happen in four and a half months and, from my experience of implementing projects with government departments I would guess in the region of 5-10 years (outside of the WTO negotiations).
talking to yourself again , no one's listening, NO deal on the way
regards
DR
 


Jan 30, 2008
31,981
I'm in Berlin at the moment, so you'd think that the Brexit agreement would be big news. In the paper I read this morning, there was a one paragraph story on page 3, there was more space given to Michelle Obama. Shows the significance of the UK to the Europeam psyche.

Wouldn't happen to Germany ...
Well they can **** off then
regards
DR
 


Westdene Seagull

aka Cap'n Carl Firecrotch
NSC Patron
Oct 27, 2003
21,521
The arse end of Hangleton
Even if you are correct, a new Blue UK passport? That will be £150 please sir. But you only got an EU one last year costing £120? Sorry, invalid document now.

The first of many own goals.

The EU don't have a passport - individual member nations do. Our current passports will remain valid until their expiry date. Then when you apply for a renewal you'll get a blue one.
 






Blue Valkyrie

Not seen such Bravery!
Sep 1, 2012
32,165
Valhalla
Which is what happened to Callaghan. BUt if May were defeated in a no confidence vote, it's no longer the case that there'd be a GE. The Tories would appoint another leader and he/she would carry on as PM.
They have just 14 days to change their mind or else there would be a GE. Not sure there is time for a new Tory leader ? ???
 


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