[Politics] Brexit

[Lincoln Imp]

My hopes haven't been dashed - I still believe we will leave ..... and not under the Chequers plan or the Norway model. Most leavers have left this thread for remainers to moan amoungst themselves while they cream themselves and each other at how clever they think they are.

I don't think I'm remotely clever. I post less than I used to because I've grown tired of the inanities of ppf and 2p, and fed up that I have to share a football club with name-callers such as the apparently unpleasant Pasta and JCFG.

But back to my lack of cleverness. I agree with you in that I still believe we will leave, if only because not even this government could continue to drive down a cul de sac without having a secret way out. They must know more than we do.

But what will happen? I assume that May will strike a sort of Chequers-minus deal and calculates that she will get it past the House because her whips will be able to drive the number of ERG rebels down to a level where they can be compensated for by similarly-rebelling Labour MPs.

I can't imagine that a Canada-plus could get past though - Amber Rudd claims that 40 Tories could rebel against it and whilst that looks high there wouldn't be many Labour MPs prepared to help Mrs May out. And because a Canada proposal could only come before the House if the Chequers proposal had previously foundered there would have to be a delay to the departure date.

If May can't get a majority she would have few places to go. She might conceivably be able to sell a temporary Norway deal to the House but neither Norway nor the EU have said they will accept it. Perhaps they might change their mind, but it seems unlikely. If they did, there would again have to be a postponement of March 29.

And if Parliament can't agree any option at all I still can't see us leaving on March 29 on so-called No Deal terms. Bercow will allow a vote after a no deal debate and if that led to a call from a logjammed House for a further public consultation then I can't see the government being able to resist it (even if technically they could).

So back to your post. You don't think it will be Chequers or Norway getting past Parliament. What then?


EDIT - just seen your response. Do you really think the House will caually allow us to drift towards a calamity in the form of a No Deal? One of the few formal responsibilities of an MP is to act in the national interest. Are you sure they would allow this to engulf us?

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

The National Crime Agency don't just investigate criminal activity, its speciality is organised crime. I don't think parliament can overlook it, at least I would hope so, but then it depends who he tries to drag down with him.
The whole thing is corrupt. All credit to Carole Cadwalladr who has been tenacious in collecting evidence.

Tge NCA is really our FBI.

I wonder if anyone has a bolt hole in Moscow ?

 

[nicko31]

This is the letter Arron Banks wrote to Chairman of the Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee Damian Collins' Folkestone constituents last week:



What a ****.

Bit more meat on the bones...

https://www.channel4.com/news/arron-banks-on-his-campaign-to-deselect-tory-mps-who-backed-remain

 

[ManOfSussex]

So what will it be, Canada Plus an Irish civil war?

The no deal advocates are either more than happy to rip up The GFA or are now Irish unification after-timers - the harsh realities of either scenario are merely unfortunate technicalities as a result - it's pointless trying to reason with them I'm afraid.

 

[vegster]

I don't think there will be a new solution - I think it will be no deal. Yes, allegedly 95% is done but as yet the UK government, the Irish government, the EU nor the NI political parties have come up with a plan for the Irish border that every party will agree to. I think that will scupper the '95%' completed so far.

Don't forget, they are trumpeting 95% of the Transition deal is completed,not the full final result.

 

[Mellotron]

Interesting to see momentum building in the fightback against Trump's corruption in the US, and now the Leave campaign's in the UK - Banks' letter above is full of alt-right/Trump-style phrases.

Sometimes people are impatient that the gears of the law are slow to grind. Democracy is really, really being tested at the moment. Fascinating times, from a historical perspective.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

EDIT - just seen your response. Do you really think the House will caually allow us to drift towards a calamity in the form of a No Deal? One of the few formal responsibilities of an MP is to act in the national interest. Are you sure they would allow this to engulf us?

A fair question. The problem being that I think the House is so divided there won't be a single option that provides a majority - we'll fall into 'No Deal' by default.

Chequers clearly won't fly - the ERG won't vote for it and the EU have said it isn't possible.

Norway hasn't been discussed or put on the table and we're now 5 months away from automatically leaving. I don't think the Conservatives outside the cabinet would really vote for it anyway - I'm not convinced even all the cabinet would. A Norway option would utterly destroy any (slim) chance the Tories have of winning the next election. It's being in the EU in all but name so a percentage of leave voters would see it as betrayal. I accept that some leavers may have changed their minds but I'm not convinced a big enough number have to prevent the Tories from worrying about the next election if Norway becomes the solution.

Canada plus ( or even plus plus ) - in 5 months ?? No chance.

Finally, the House are getting a 'meaningful' vote - what is that ? I've seen nowhere it being suggested that the vote would be binding. Equally I've not seen anything to suggest it won't be binding. Devils in the detail and I don't think the government will allow the House the final say - mainly because it's likely to bring down the government.

Leaving could be delayed but once again, I'd see that triggering at least a Tory leasdership challenge but more likely a GE.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Don't forget, they are trumpeting 95% of the Transition deal is completed,not the full final result.

Michel Barnier is saying it isn't.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

This is how government ministers are spending (wasting) your money.

[tweet]1057211379554369538[/tweet]

 

[Thunder Bolt]

This is the letter Arron Banks wrote to Chairman of the Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee Damian Collins' Folkestone constituents last week:



What a ****.

He also conveniently forgets that Lewes voted Remain by 52%, yet Maria Caulfield is not only an ardent Brexiteer, but also part of the ERG. Why didn't he insist that she be de-selected for not representing her constituents?

 

[nicko31]

A fair question. The problem being that I think the House is so divided there won't be a single option that provides a majority - we'll fall into 'No Deal' by default.

Chequers clearly won't fly - the ERG won't vote for it and the EU have said it isn't possible.

Norway hasn't been discussed or put on the table and we're now 5 months away from automatically leaving. I don't think the Conservatives outside the cabinet would really vote for it anyway - I'm not convinced even all the cabinet would. A Norway option would utterly destroy any (slim) chance the Tories have of winning the next election. It's being in the EU in all but name so a percentage of leave voters would see it as betrayal. I accept that some leavers may have changed their minds but I'm not convinced a big enough number have to prevent the Tories from worrying about the next election if Norway becomes the solution.

Canada plus ( or even plus plus ) - in 5 months ?? No chance.

Finally, the House are getting a 'meaningful' vote - what is that ? I've seen nowhere it being suggested that the vote would be binding. Equally I've not seen anything to suggest it won't be binding. Devils in the detail and I don't think the government will allow the House the final say - mainly because it's likely to bring down the government.

Leaving could be delayed but once again, I'd see that triggering at least a Tory leasdership challenge but more likely a GE.

I think when it comes to it most of the ERG will fall into line with a Chequers deal and the few that don't will be compensated by some Labour votes that will cross the floor. As DD said yesterday, they will be forced into it by terror of No Deal

May told the right of her party of the conference last month that if they push for the perfect Brexit they risk no Brexit at all. Think she is right, No Deal increases the chance of a People's Vote, though that would take ages and A50 would need to be extended

 

[Mellotron]

Finally, the House are getting a 'meaningful' vote - what is that ? I've seen nowhere it being suggested that the vote would be binding. Equally I've not seen anything to suggest it won't be binding. Devils in the detail and I don't think the government will allow the House the final say - mainly because it's likely to bring down the government.

Man that sounds familiar...

 

[Ernest]

Will Arron Banks be the useful idiot that gives the excuse to abandon the whole thing ? I can see many court cases if the government doesn't pause everything whilst these allegations are probed especially if criminal charges are brought.
It must be bad for the EC to involve the police rather than adjudicate themselves

 

[melias shoes]

He also conveniently forgets that Lewes voted Remain by 52%, yet Maria Caulfield is not only an ardent Brexiteer, but also part of the ERG. Why didn't he insist that she be de-selected for not representing her constituents?

Soubry's constituency voted to leave. Let's have her de-selected .

 

[Titanic]

He also conveniently forgets that Lewes voted Remain by 52%, yet Maria Caulfield is not only an ardent Brexiteer, but also part of the ERG. Why didn't he insist that she be de-selected for not representing her constituents?

70% of Conservative constituencies and 60% of Labour constituencies voted to Leave in the EU referendum.

https://fullfact.org/europe/did-maj...bour-constituencies-vote-leave-eu-referendum/

 

[Westdene Seagull]

He also conveniently forgets that Lewes voted Remain by 52%, yet Maria Caulfield is not only an ardent Brexiteer, but also part of the ERG. Why didn't he insist that she be de-selected for not representing her constituents?

But the referendum wasn't counted as a constituency by constituency option - it was counted on a one vote one person across the UK as a whole.

 

[pb21]

He also conveniently forgets that Lewes voted Remain by 52%, yet Maria Caulfield is not only an ardent Brexiteer, but also part of the ERG. Why didn't he insist that she be de-selected for not representing her constituents?

Soubry's constituency voted to leave. Let's have her de-selected .

70% of Conservative constituencies and 60% of Labour constituencies voted to Leave in the EU referendum.

https://fullfact.org/europe/did-maj...bour-constituencies-vote-leave-eu-referendum/

But the referendum wasn't counted as a constituency by constituency option - it was counted on a one vote one person across the UK as a whole.

i think you are all missing [MENTION=14365]Thunder Bolt[/MENTION] point.

 

[ManOfSussex]

I think when it comes to it most of the ERG will fall into line with a Chequers deal and the few that don't will be compensated by some Labour votes that will cross the floor. As DD said yesterday, they will be forced into it by terror of No Deal

May told the right of her party of the conference last month that if they push for the perfect Brexit they risk no Brexit at all. Think she is right, No Deal increases the chance of a People's Vote, though that would take ages and A50 would need to be extended

I've said this before, but if we were to leave with no deal for whatever reason it's just totally unsustainable and we'd be into EFTA very soon afterwards to alleviate the chaos, having fulfilled the referendum result don't forget, faster than Jacob Rees-Mogg could take to Twitter to say in Latin that it's the biggest humiliating act of vassalage to happen to this country since King Canute failed to make the sea retreat in the 11th Century, or something.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

I think when it comes to it most of the ERG will fall into line with a Chequers deal and the few that don't will be compensated by some Labour votes that will cross the floor. As DD said yesterday, they will be forced into it by terror of No Deal

May told the right of her party of the conference last month that if they push for the perfect Brexit they risk no Brexit at all. Think she is right, No Deal increases the chance of a People's Vote, though that would take ages and A50 would need to be extended

The EU has already said it won't accept the Chequers deal as there is too much cherry picking.

 

[DavidinSouthampton]

The EU has already said it won't accept the Chequers deal as there is too much cherry picking.

And I for one can totally understand why. For me, it's not about making an example of the one country that is leaving, it is about maintaining the integrity of the organisation for the vast majority who are still members.