[Politics] Brexit

[Two Professors]

Sorry, but no-one I'm aware of has been complaining about the use of a 'per household' measure. It's much better to use that or a 'per head' measure than an absolute figure (particularly when talking about monetary figures) because it makes them relatable.

The problem with the £4,300 figure is that it was a measure of gross value added, rather than income. Gross value added combines wages with profits, and since a substantial proportion of profits end up with foreign investors, the effect on the income of UK households is actually quite a bit lower - from memory I think the figure was £2,700 from the same Treasury analysis.

The problem (and it's the same with Vote Leave's £350m figure) is that debating the detail makes it look like i) you're accepting the underlying point and ii) it keeps the debate on the issue.

I should try and get out more often then.And Osborne's £4300 is still a lie,no matter what spin you try to put on it.

 

[Two Professors]

Hard-hitting article in today's FT - worth a read if you have a few minutes this lunchtime....

Flick through the campaign material of the Brexiters fighting Britain’s referendum and you will find a video of a brawl in the Ankara parliament. Next, a poster with an image of a UK passport declaring that “Turkey (population 76m) is joining the EU”. Then statistics about Turkey’s high birth rate; and a warning that Britain’s National Health Service will soon be swamped by expectant Turkish mothers. After this follows the assertion — unsubstantiated, of course — that Turkey has higher levels of criminality and gangsterism; and a map showing that Ankara’s supposedly imminent accession will extend Europe’s external frontier to war-ravaged Syria. None of this needs decoding. The dog whistle has made way for the klaxon. EU membership talks with Turkey, we are to understand, will soon see Britain overrun by millions of (Muslim) Turks — most of them thugs or welfare scroungers. In the US, the Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump says all Muslims must be treated as suspect. The Tory Brexit campaign led by Boris Johnson and Michael Gove has chosen to cast the entire Turkish nation as the enemy. Mr Trump plans to ban Muslims from entering the US. Britain’s response to the Turkish “threat”, the Brexiters say, should be to quit the EU and pull up the drawbridge across the Channel.

There was always a danger that the referendum campaign would bleed into xenophobia. The UK Independence party, led by Nigel Farage, has never bothered itself with policing the boundary between legitimate debate about immigration and straightforward racism. The surprising thing has been the enthusiasm of the Conservative-led Vote Leave campaign, which once presented itself as the reasoned face of Euroscepticism, in marching on to Ukip’s nativist territory. Mr Johnson is a former mayor of London, the most cosmopolitan of the world’s great cities, whose all-consuming ambition is to replace David Cameron as prime minister. Mr Gove is the minister responsible for oversight of the rule of law in Mr Cameron’s cabinet. Both had previously presented themselves as social liberals. Mr Johnson had even boasted of his family’s Turkish ancestry — his paternal great-grandfather went by the name Ali Kemal Bey — and not so long ago he was a vociferous supporter of Turkey’s EU entry.

Now, he represents the citizens of his ancestral home as a civilisational threat. As the Leave campaign puts it, “Murderers, terrorists and kidnappers from countries like Turkey could flock to Britain if it remains in the European Union”. As repugnant as they are, Mr Trump’s views on Islam are directly stated. Mr Johnson lets the Islamophobia hang in the air. The obvious riposte is that there is no prospect of Turkey joining the EU in the foreseeable future. Mr Cameron has made just this point. Ankara first applied to join during the 1960s and opened talks with Brussels in 2005. During the past decade only one of 35 accession chapters has been completed. Each of the existing EU states holds a veto and any decision would be subject to referendums in several that are overtly hostile to Turkey’s accession. Even if, inexplicably, all those hurdles were somehow surmounted, entry would be followed by lengthy transitional arrangements. We are talking, if it ever happens, several decades from now.


Yet none of this deters Messrs Johnson and Gove from insisting, absurdly, that Turkey could be a full EU member by 2020. The Brexiters operate outside anything as old-fashioned as a framework of truth. Fiercely anti-intellectual, and borrowing heavily from Mr Trump, they judge that rational argument is best met with shameless mendacity. They have exploited, it is fair to say, the cynicism of successive British governments in dealings with Turkey. Mr Cameron is not the first prime minister to seek commercial and political credit in Ankara by publicly backing EU entry in the certain knowledge that others will ensure it does not happen. Germany’s chancellor Angela Merkel has embraced the same unattractive realpolitik in striking a deal with Ankara to halt the flow of Syrian refugees.

The sharp authoritarian turn of president Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government has dismayed, meanwhile, the staunchest supporters of Turkey’s eventual EU accession. The avowed democrat of a decade or so ago now resides in a palace fit for Louis XIV and wants to dispense with all constraints on his personal power — another reason why EU entry has receded from view. The Outs, though, are not directing their fire at Mr Erdogan. Their target is the Turkish people. The crude calculation is that demonising Turks adds a useful xenophobic edge to a populist campaign against the Brussels-backing elites. The aim is to harden support for the anti-EU cause among working-class voters marginalised by globalisation. Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right National Front and an avowed supporter of Brexit, has done much the same in France.

The painful irony is that in “playing the Turkish card” the Outs debauch the democracy they say they want to rescue from the clutches of the EU. By stoking prejudice against Turks in particular and Muslims in general, they throw away the liberal tolerance that has long defined Britishness. Mr Johnson may think that this is the way to win the referendum and then claim the keys to 10 Downing Street. But at what price?

Why bother reading the FT-you've already put the article on here.Remainers slag off the tabloids for appealing to the lowest common denominator in the Leave camp.How is this tat any different, appealing to the same type in the Remain camp?

 

[Two Professors]

Some MP from Totnes nobody has ever heard of outside of her constituency,is gambling on a Remain vote to land her a big job after the vote by swapping sides.Good luck after the vote with your local party activists.

 

[5ways]

Some MP from Totnes nobody has ever heard of outside of her constituency,is gambling on a Remain vote to land her a big job after the vote by swapping sides.Good luck after the vote with your local party activists.

She was Leave until the lies starting spewing forth about Brexit and the NHS. "We send £350m to Brussels every week, let's fund the NHS instead." Managing to squeeze two lies into a single sentence would make any reasonable person question their leave vote.

 

[heathgate]

Nothing was stopping them voting "weeks before". But something was stopping them voting hours before.

Also, which bit of "you have until" do you not understand?

Yes you dullard, typical response from you... its like knowing that Tesco is open until 10pm.. then going in to do a weeks shop at 9.45pm.....

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[sten_super]

I should try and get out more often then.And Osborne's £4300 is still a lie,no matter what spin you try to put on it.

*sigh* Where have I put spin on it?

The point is that most of these 'facts' aren't outright lies. They have just enough truth in them that the other side can't flatly accuse them of lying and have to argue the point; therefore keeping the debate on that issue. Both official groups have been very adept at this, and it's a big part of the reason that the level of debate around the important issues (sovereignty, democracy, economic impact, immigration, etc.) has been so poor. They spend most of the time shouting these headline numbers at each other without us being able to get into any kind of discussion as to what the 'least-worst' option might be in any given area.

 

[BigGully]

The good news is that you (and I - also 53) have one vote each, just the same as any 18 year old. But logically this vote IS more important for them.....they will have to live all their adult lives with the consequences, whereas we probably only have another 30 years or so to go.

Oh come on, thats a bit melodramatic, we will do just fine outside ( my preference ) and I am sure we will do ok if we stay, I think all this scaremongering is starting to get to you ......

 

[BigGully]

She was Leave until the lies starting spewing forth about Brexit and the NHS. "We send £350m to Brussels every week, let's fund the NHS instead." Managing to squeeze two lies into a single sentence would make any reasonable person question their leave vote.

You too

If lies are the deciding factor you mustn't be sleeping at night ......

 

[Deleted member 22389]

She was Leave until the lies starting spewing forth about Brexit and the NHS. "We send £350m to Brussels every week, let's fund the NHS instead." Managing to squeeze two lies into a single sentence would make any reasonable person question their leave vote.

Remain said the NHS would lose 10 billion, go figure. My question is if we remain and we got in to recession, since they won't be able to blame brexit, who will they blame then?

 

[LlcoolJ]

Why bother reading the FT-you've already put the article on here.Remainers slag off the tabloids for appealing to the lowest common denominator in the Leave camp.How is this tat any different, appealing to the same type in the Remain camp?

Did you actually read it though? Or were there too many FACTS that you didn't like in there?

 

[East Preston Gull]

Ha! Blair and Major together as brothers in harms. Clowns. Game over.

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[Two Professors]

Did you actually read it though? Or were there too many FACTS that you didn't like in there?

Did you? Or are you too busy trying to be clever?

 

[Two Professors]

Ha! Blair and Major together as brothers in harms. Clowns. Game over.

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Liars and deceivers together-another completely unbelievable fail from the Remain team.Try fielding somebody credible-oh,no,all the honest politicians are for Brexit.

 

[LlcoolJ]

Did you? Or are you too busy trying to be clever?

Not answering the question is it? Ok. Yes I did read it thanks.

 

[Pavilionaire]

The gap has never been wider - now 11.14% lead for REMAIN on this NSC poll.

Of course, that is probably to be expected with a demographic that is more younger and more male than the average - and with a South-Eastern bias which I'd expect to be more pro-European on economic grounds.

 

[beorhthelm]

am i misreading this, or is it suggesting that Labour voters about 50% in favour of remain and 18-29 yo around 45%? that means 50% and 55% respectfully in the don't know/leave camps

 

[Deleted member 22389]

Not answering the question is it? Ok. Yes I did read it thanks.

All Remain are doing is turning a very bad situation that we have zero control over, flipping it around and brushing it all over as scaremongering. Not having go at you, you didn't write the article, but honestly if you listened to Remain all the time all those boats turning up in the EU must all be in our imagination.

 

[sten_super]

am i misreading this, or is it suggesting that Labour voters about 50% in favour of remain and 18-29 yo around 45%? that means 50% and 55% respectfully in the don't know/leave camps

I think you are misreading it. As I understand it it is the balance in favour of Remain; so a 50% balance of Labour voters favour Remain (i.e. 75% plays 25%). UKIP is about -94% (to make the maths easier) which would be 97% Leave 3% Remain (3-97= -94%).

 

[Lincoln Imp]

1936 - Adolf Hitler uses the expression ‘United States of Europe’ to describe his plan for a united Europe
1940 - Reichsmarschall Herman Goering coins the name ‘European Economic Community’
1940 - Walther Funk submitted to Hitler plans for an ‘Economic Reorganisation of Europe’ and proposes a single European currency
1942 - Reinhard Heydrich published ‘The Reich Plan for the Domination of Europe’ which later became ‘The Treaty of Rome’
1943 - Thirteen countries are invited to join a European Federation working under German military control
1944 - A German conference is held in Strasbourg to discuss how Germany will dominate the peace when the war ends.
Strange, eh?
Yet our government would have us believe in the European project

I'm worried about Soulman. He seems to have disappeared since he was asked to justify this 'Vote remain and you're a Hitler apologist' contribution to the debate.

 

[Horton's halftime iceberg]

am i misreading this, or is it suggesting that Labour voters about 50% in favour of remain and 18-29 yo around 45%? that means 50% and 55% respectfully in the don't know/leave camps

Even funnier UKIP has about 5-15% why is it not 100%?