[Politics] Brexit

[Baldseagull]

Or, another way to look at things is that in the last 10 years (which I think most people would view as a reasonable economic window), the pound has been above 1.30 for approx 12 months (Mid Jan 2015 to early Feb 2016). So if for the remaining 90% of the last 10 years it's been below 1.30, I don't think anyone with a degree of intelligence could rationally use words like plummet, crash. I accept that there's volatility in the F.Ex markets with Stl due to Brexit, but the impact is nowhere near as dramatic as some try to make out. The year above 1.30 should be viewed as the outlier and not the norm.

When the currency makes the biggest one day fall in it's history, plummet is a fair word to use.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

No. There may (or may not be) a few more people who would vote 'Remain' now, but not twenty million of them.

The term 'undemocratic loons' referenced JCFCPasta's standard description for anyone who wants a referendum on the deal. The numbers of these have been rising and by June were up to 42 percent of adults, two percent more than those who didn't want to be consulted. I am sorry if I didn't make that clear.

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

I bought the property in 2002, how the hell did I know there would be a banking crisis in 2008. It wasn't bought for investment purposes either, it was bought as a holiday home, and I was just using it as an example of how things bounce back.

But we do now know that there are dire predictions of the fate of the economy if we pursue Brexit. You weren't to know about the banking crisis but we are now in possession of forecasts. If you had these and ignored them when you made your purchase then you'd have been a fool. You didn't and you weren't; you were unlucky. But this is different. There is no automatic mechanism in the economy that will stabilize it; bounce back at a macro level is not inevitable and no more likely than a downward spiral.

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

Or, another way to look at things is that in the last 10 years (which I think most people would view as a reasonable economic window), the pound has been above 1.30 for approx 12 months (Mid Jan 2015 to early Feb 2016). So if for the remaining 90% of the last 10 years it's been below 1.30, I don't think anyone with a degree of intelligence could rationally use words like plummet, crash. I accept that there's volatility in the F.Ex markets with Stl due to Brexit, but the impact is nowhere near as dramatic as some try to make out. The year above 1.30 should be viewed as the outlier and not the norm.

Ok. But the vagaries of the currency are being triggered by the mere signals that we are edging towards Brexit (especially a no deal version). Should this transpire then one would expect the market reaction to be even more volatile; unless it's being priced-in early.

 

[larus]

When the currency makes the biggest one day fall in it's history, plummet is a fair word to use.

Seeing as you joined the discussion late, the original point made was that GBP had fallen from 1.6 to 1.1.

I pointed out that, apart from a short period (12 months around 2015) when the rate was above 1.3 and PEAKED at 1.44, the average rate in the last 10 years was circa 1.20 - 1.25 (a visual impression from the 10 year chart). To try to say that the drop from 1.6 to 1.1 was linked to Brexit is pathetic. The rate of 1.6 was more than 10 frigging years ago. Based on that logic, I suppose Brexit is to blame for the drop in value of the GBP from $4 to the current rebate of $1.3. Or maybe Brexit is to blame for Hong-Kong being returned to the Chinese or possibly America gaining indepence from the UK. Anything bad - Blame Brexit. ANything good - despite Brexit.

Also, the chart shows a low in the 10 years of 1.02, so I guess we should be grateful we voted Brexit as its stopped the rate going that low again.

So however you choose to look at it the rate is only slightly below the average of the last 10 years (maybe 15%). If people wish to use short-term gyrations in the daily rate to make judgements on the economic impact of Brexit then they are fools. The impacts will not be felt for years either way. For clarification, I’m ignoring the short-term disruption will will happen when we actually leave which there will of course be.

 

[larus]

But we do now know that there are dire predictions of the fate of the economy if we pursue Brexit. You weren't to know about the banking crisis but we are now in possession of forecasts. If you had these and ignored them when you made your purchase then you'd have been a fool. You didn't and you weren't; you were unlucky. But this is different. There is no automatic mechanism in the economy that will stabilize it; bounce back at a macro level is not inevitable and no more likely than a downward spiral.

The assumption that you are making is that the predictions from the Elite are correct.

They were wrong about the EURO (i.e. UK not joining).
They were wrong about the impact of the vote to leave.
But, they are bound to be right now (even though other forecaster dispute their assumptions), because that suits your position?

 

[larus]

Ok. But the vagaries of the currency are being triggered by the mere signals that we are edging towards Brexit (especially a no deal version). Should this transpire then one would expect the market reaction to be even more volatile; unless it's being priced-in early.

Actually, the opposite can often happen. In the lead up to the event, markets get jittery. When the event happens they can often bounce the other way as they have overreacted.

For example, when interest rates are expected to rise, the pound strengthens. However, when the rate rise occurs, often the pound will then drop a bit. Same happens in reverse. Markets have a herd mentality and are not rational, which is why contrarian investors often do so well.

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

The assumption that you are making is that the predictions from the Elite are correct.

They were wrong about the EURO (i.e. UK not joining).
They were wrong about the impact of the vote to leave.
But, they are bound to be right now (even though other forecaster dispute their assumptions), because that suits your position?

Well at least you used the word elite rather than establishment - otherwise it's just the same old/same old, head in sand denial. Please argue with the substance: impaired trading relationship with our key market = loss of growth = loss of jobs = not fun. Can you find any forecast that denies this? Even the Economists for Free Trade concede this in the short term. I've got a feeling you know you are wrong. Why not 'fess up and say 'it's a price worth paying"? If that's what you think then fine. Why such reluctance? It's all rather flat-earth.

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

Actually, the opposite can often happen. In the lead up to the event, markets get jittery. When the event happens they can often bounce the other way as they have overreacted.

For example, when interest rates are expected to rise, the pound strengthens. However, when the rate rise occurs, often the pound will then drop a bit. Same happens in reverse. Markets have a herd mentality and are not rational, which is why contrarian investors often do so well.

I'm no fan of market sentiment, but do you remember the time when Norman Lamont uncoupled the £ from the DM? we were about 3 hours away from total currency melt-down. I'd put Brexit on this level of potential magnitude not a tweak of 0.25% in interest rates. (Please note the word potential.)

 

[The Clamp]

Some nice ones made in other countries.The US forces PX in Belgium stocked far tastier ones than the German ones.

View attachment 100801

"Sold at over 4000 Mcdonalds and supplier to the food processor industry".

 

[clapham_gull]

Can someone explain to me how Mrs May can call a General Election ? I thought that under the terms of the Fixed Term Parliaments it would need more than her alone to make that decision.

2/3 majority is required I think like last time.

Basically as it's the House of Commons call for "bundle", it's usually going to go through.

So one for the remainers:

Would you put up with 4 years of Labour if it meant of a chance of staying in Europe ?

 

[clapham_gull]

If we leave the UK ceases to exist, it will no longer be a country we were born and grew up in. Many of us will feel homeless.

That is particularly ridiculous I'm sorry to say. How you can possibly feel "homeless" ?

 

[clapham_gull]

Well, when your country is dismantled what are you supposed to feel? You don't belong to the new one, you do not feel part of it, you have nothing in common with it.

I voted remain, but never felt emotionally attached to a free trading area.

 

[Sarisbury Seagull]

2/3 majority is required I think like last time.

Basically as it's the House of Commons call for "bundle", it's usually going to go through.

So one for the remainers:

Would you put up with 4 years of Labour if it meant of a chance of staying in Europe ?

Yes, 100%. And I’ve never voted Labour in my life.

I’d rather someone centre left was leading the party but would put up with Corbyn for a few years if it meant staying in Europe.

 

[GT49er]

Well, when your country is dismantled what are you supposed to feel? You don't belong to the new one, you do not feel part of it, you have nothing in common with it.

Well, when your country is gradually dragged into the ultimate EU goal of a United States of Europe what are you supposed to feel? You don't belong to the new one, you do not feel part of it, you have nothing in common with it.

 

[GT49er]

Put anything in charge as long as we remain in Europe it will be worth it and better than leaving. If we leave the UK ceases to exist, it will no longer be a country we were born and grew up in. Many of us will feel homeless.

Put anything in charge as long as we leave the EU it will be worth it and better than remainng. If we remain the UK ceases to exist, it will no longer be a country we were born and grew up in. Many of us will feel homeless

 

[Swillis]

It is the removal of freedom of movement

Hallelujah.

 

[shingle]

Put anything in charge as long as we remain in Europe it will be worth it and better than leaving. If we leave the UK ceases to exist, it will no longer be a country we were born and grew up in. Many of us will feel homeless.

An absolutely embarrassing post, and a perfect example of everything that is wrong with modern day Britain.

Going back a few years, there was a poll on NSC about how we defined ourselves, British, English or European I think were the options. I was quite surprised that a significant minority of people defined themselves as European, so as I used to spend the summers photographing hotels and resorts all over Europe I thought that I'd ask people that I met (usually groups of people in their 20's) how they thought of themselves, whether they thought of themselves firstly as French/German/Spanish etc or as Firstly European. Nobody throughout the summer in the many resorts that I was in defined themselves as European, everyone that I spoke to said they thought of themselves firstly as German/ Spanish/French etc. In fact the French particularly used to get indignant and irritated that the question was even asked.

It's so depressing

 

[WATFORD zero]

An absolutely embarrassing post, and a perfect example of everything that is wrong with modern day Britain.

Going back a few years, there was a poll on NSC about how we defined ourselves, British, English or European I think were the options. I was quite surprised that a significant minority of people defined themselves as European, so as I used to spend the summers photographing hotels and resorts all over Europe I thought that I'd ask people that I met (usually groups of people in their 20's) how they thought of themselves, whether they thought of themselves firstly as French/German/Spanish etc or as Firstly European. Nobody throughout the summer in the many resorts that I was in defined themselves as European, everyone that I spoke to said they thought of themselves firstly as German/ Spanish/French etc. In fact the French particularly used to get indignant and irritated that the question was even asked.

It's so depressing

I bet your partner's looking forward to your next holiday

 

[shingle]

I bet your partner's looking forward to your next holiday

Yeah, she most certainly is.

It's a six month trip taking in India, Myanmar, Phillipines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia and a months work in New Zealand