[Politics] Brexit

[Simster]

Let’s assume we had another referendum and we voted Remain and then called the process off (assuming we were allowed to stay in on our original terms which is questionable).

Then, in 18 months time opinion polls pointed to a majority who wanted to now leave. Should we have another referendum then and start the process again?

I think we all know what the remainers would say to that.

As pro Brexit people on here that I respect, I'd be interested to know what you, [MENTION=1365]Westdene Seagull[/MENTION], [MENTION=25]Gwylan[/MENTION] and one or two others genuinely hope for from this position. I'm not interested in the "on our way" simpletons, I'd like to know what you realistically feel you can expect from this point? I am looking for a glimmer of hope because I am crestfallen as a remainer that we are so obviously (to me anyway) about to cut our noses off to spite our faces as the chance of any sort of credible, "good" deal appears to have just gone.

 

[Ernest]

As pro Brexit people on here that I respect, I'd be interested to know what you, [MENTION=1365]Westdene Seagull[/MENTION], [MENTION=25]Gwylan[/MENTION] and one or two others genuinely hope for from this position. I'm not interested in the "on our way" simpletons, I'd like to know what you realistically feel you can expect from this point? I am looking for a glimmer of hope because I am crestfallen as a remainer that we are so obviously (to me anyway) about to cut our noses off to spite our faces as the chance of any sort of credible, "good" deal appears to have just gone.

There is no hope of any deal, I guess May is too busy worrying how to get out of this mess to even bother thinking about a deal now.

 

[Bold Seagull]

As pro Brexit people on here that I respect, I'd be interested to know what you, [MENTION=1365]Westdene Seagull[/MENTION], [MENTION=25]Gwylan[/MENTION] and one or two others genuinely hope for from this position. I'm not interested in the "on our way" simpletons, I'd like to know what you realistically feel you can expect from this point? I am looking for a glimmer of hope because I am crestfallen as a remainer that we are so obviously (to me anyway) about to cut our noses off to spite our faces as the chance of any sort of credible, "good" deal appears to have just gone.

Was there a chance of a good deal at any point?

 

[Simster]

Was there a chance of a good deal at any point?

Well I didn't think so as a remainer because it was always clear to me that the EU held all the aces simply because our economy is far less important to them than the other way round. But in all honesty, I'm just looking for an alternative view from the sensible Brexiteers on here for a way forward as I simply cannot see one that isn't disastrous.

If we never have a referendum again, it'll be 20 billion years too soon.

 

[Ernest]

Well I didn't think so as a remainer because it was always clear to me that the EU held all the aces simply because our economy is far less important to them than the other way round. But in all honesty, I'm just looking for an alternative view from the sensible Brexiteers on here for a way forward as I simply cannot see one that isn't disastrous.

If we never have a referendum again, it'll be 20 billion years too soon.

Certain people deluded themselves firstly how easy it would be to leave and secondly that the EU would just roll over and give away everything at the first sight of Davies in a meeting

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Let’s assume we had another referendum and we voted Remain and then called the process off (assuming we were allowed to stay in on our original terms which is questionable).

Then, in 18 months time opinion polls pointed to a majority who wanted to now leave. Should we have another referendum then and start the process again?

I think we all know what the remainers would say to that.

I think you're right to call it a 'process'. To suggest that the democratic process was completed in a 'one-and-done' referendum, with a single question "Do you think Britain should remain in the EU: Yes or No?", doesn't sit well with me. There was so much we didn't know on that day, so much more that we know now. I never realised the Irish border issue would be such a sticking point with no apparent clean solution. I never realised that the Leave-representing members of our government, who took control of the Offices of State tasked with negotiating our future outside the EU, would be so incapable of arriving at a solution that could be agreed to by Cabinet, Parliament and the other member-countries of the EU. Now every single one of them is sitting on the outside sniping at the government, and leading us towards either an acrimonious split with the EU and no deal, or a deal that is being widely described as 'worse than staying in'.

I'd like to get off this train, thank you very much, and I'd like to know how many of my fellow citizens agree with me.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Well I didn't think so as a remainer because it was always clear to me that the EU held all the aces simply because our economy is far less important to them than the other way round. But in all honesty, I'm just looking for an alternative view from the sensible Brexiteers on here for a way forward as I simply cannot see one that isn't disastrous.

If we never have a referendum again, it'll be 20 billion years too soon.

The whole exercise has been how can we make a shit decision less shit. And basically you can't, so it's just how shit is the shit decision going to end up being. I think even the positive spins from Brexiteers have largely dried up. Better stay quiet, then after the shit deal, just say, 'I wouldn't have done that shit deal, I was all for doing the other shit deal'. No one will take responsibility for it, because no one actually is. The Tories are just fighting amoung themselves to ensure they have the right trust funds linked to the right markets when this thing kicks off.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

The whole exercise has been how can we make a shit decision less shit. And basically you can't, so it's just how shit is the shit decision going to end up being. I think even the positive spins from Brexiteers have largely dried up. Better stay quiet, then after the shit deal, just say, 'I wouldn't have done that shit deal, I was all for doing the other shit deal'. No one will take responsibility for it, because no one actually is. The Tories are just fighting amoung themselves to ensure they have the right trust funds linked to the right markets when this thing kicks off.

God it just makes you cry doesn't it.

 

[ManOfSussex]

The whole exercise has been how can we make a shit decision less shit. And basically you can't, so it's just how shit is the shit decision going to end up being. I think even the positive spins from Brexiteers have largely dried up. Better stay quiet, then after the shit deal, just say, 'I wouldn't have done that shit deal, I was all for doing the other shit deal'. No one will take responsibility for it, because no one actually is. The Tories are just fighting amoung themselves to ensure they have the right trust funds linked to the right markets when this thing kicks off.

The whole exercise is set up to fail - austerity has taken care of that. There is no economic benefit to this, it's just a question of how bad it will be. Every Whitehall department needs the cuts of the last 8 years reversed, and budgets and staffing compliments increased. 'Take back control of our borders' - It's a joke -The UKBF is nearly 25% less than what it was in 2010, as well as the cuts to police numbers. All the roads and infrastructure that needs to be built in Kent, Pembrokeshire, Hampshire etc is never going to happen. All our embassies, High Commissions, Consulates and Councils abroad need to be expanded in scope, size and influence. Physically speaking, some of those buildings aren't even fit for purpose now. The cuts to defence spending needed to be reversed to give us more gravitas as country in the future, throw in the joys of Trident renewal in a territory with separatist aspirations too - what a mess we're in as a country.

 

[Raleigh Chopper]

Although I voted remain I am trying to find some middle ground re 2nd referendum.
It has been and still is a mess due to our pathetic politicians, the 350 million will not be available as tax rises have already been stated to give the NHS more money.
It's all been a pack of lies from the start.
So why not give another democratic choice on how people feel about it now.
If I was a leaver I would not be too worried because I think there are far too many ignorant, thick as shit people who do not care how badly it's gone or what the future holds, they are incapable of thinking anything through reasonably and they do not want Europeans coming into this country and then there are those that refus to admit they were wrong in the first place.
I think a slight majority would vote leave again.
Also, it's time to stop all this childish remoaner bollox. All I hear at the moment is leavers moaning becaus they can't agree on what type of brexit they want. So it's time to grow up on that one.

 

[larus]

As pro Brexit people on here that I respect, I'd be interested to know what you, [MENTION=1365]Westdene Seagull[/MENTION], [MENTION=25]Gwylan[/MENTION] and one or two others genuinely hope for from this position. I'm not interested in the "on our way" simpletons, I'd like to know what you realistically feel you can expect from this point? I am looking for a glimmer of hope because I am crestfallen as a remainer that we are so obviously (to me anyway) about to cut our noses off to spite our faces as the chance of any sort of credible, "good" deal appears to have just gone.

Before I reply Simster, thanks for the decent reply without the snide remarks which have made this thread so poisonous.

I will explain my position/frustrations.
First, the biggest gripe I have (along with many other leave voters) is that the process has been run be reaminers. TM is a remainer, as is Hammond. David Davis was sidelined by TM as Olly Robbins was the point of contact for the EU in reality.

There has been no serious preparation for a No Deal scenario (irrespective of the BS which TM keeps espousing). By being so weak and ill-prepared in the negotiations, it’s made it easy for the EU to bully us. Why should they try to negotiate in good faith if they can see that the other side is disorganised and continually giving in, and are not preparing for the no deal possible outcome?

If you can accept the above as a genuine grievance of the leave side, and then see the Chequers proposal as further capitulation to the EU in that we will not in reality be able to negotiate Free Trade deals, will still be subject to Free Movement in all but name and will still be under the regulations/oversight of the ECJ, then what part of Brexit is being implemented.

So, Chequers is dead. Not one side likes it and the EU have dismissed it. (I see that Justine Greening - a remainer) has now stated that chequers is dead and another viable alternative needs to be discussed.

The whole process has been a shambles and both sides need to accept a degree of blame for this. We were rushed into triggering Article 50 with little preparation, we were told a deal with the EU should be easy (and, if they were to offer a free trade deal and mutual recognistion of standards it should be, as our standards are already aligned), then something could have been agreed which would have been less painful and also honoured the democratic vote.

I accept that there is now likely to be some major disruption if we crash out on No Deal, but I honestly believe that this will be transitory as the issues will be addressed. If the EU were willing to strike a trade deal with Canada and they are about 60% of our GDP with much smaller trade links, then it’s insane to think that they won’t, when the crutch comes, agree a reasonable trade deal with us.

As I’ve pointed out several times, each country/trade block is responsible for their own borders/imports. Let’s assume we crash out on WTO terms, then the EU will be responsible for the ROI/NI border. If we are going to be reported to the WTO for not policing the border, then so will the EU as they have told the ROI that there will not be any physical infrastructure required.

You’re right. It’s a bloody mess and the remainers, Brexiteers, EU, HoL etc. have all played their part in this, either by trying to prevent Brexit or by glossing over some of the complex (but not insurmountable) problems. How can the UK present a united front if the Remainers are trying whatever they can do to thwart the process?

 

[larus]

I think you're right to call it a 'process'. To suggest that the democratic process was completed in a 'one-and-done' referendum, with a single question "Do you think Britain should remain in the EU: Yes or No?", doesn't sit well with me. There was so much we didn't know on that day, so much more that we know now. I never realised the Irish border issue would be such a sticking point with no apparent clean solution. I never realised that the Leave-representing members of our government, who took control of the Offices of State tasked with negotiating our future outside the EU, would be so incapable of arriving at a solution that could be agreed to by Cabinet, Parliament and the other member-countries of the EU. Now every single one of them is sitting on the outside sniping at the government, and leading us towards either an acrimonious split with the EU and no deal, or a deal that is being widely described as 'worse than staying in'.

I'd like to get off this train, thank you very much, and I'd like to know how many of my fellow citizens agree with me.

I notice that you didn’t answer my question though about another vote if opinion were to change again.

Also, what about the lies from Project Fear? I assume you accept that the projections of the immediate impact were lies, so how can we trust what they are saying now? The ‘establishment’ have form in interpreting data to suit their own agenda.

 

[portslade seagull]

Although I voted remain I am trying to find some middle ground re 2nd referendum.
It has been and still is a mess due to our pathetic politicians, the 350 million will not be available as tax rises have already been stated to give the NHS more money.
It's all been a pack of lies from the start.
So why not give another democratic choice on how people feel about it now.
If I was a leaver I would not be too worried because I think there are far too many ignorant, thick as shit people who do not care how badly it's gone or what the future holds, they are incapable of thinking anything through reasonably and they do not want Europeans coming into this country and then there are those that refus to admit they were wrong in the first place.
I think a slight majority would vote leave again.
Also, it's time to stop all this childish remoaner bollox. All I hear at the moment is leavers moaning becaus they can't agree on what type of brexit they want. So it's time to grow up on that one.

Stop remoaning !!!!!. Couldn't help getting the same little digs in I see. Sometimes I think it's the ignorant who keep repeating that as they have had it brainwashed into them and can't come to a more logical solution.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

I notice that you didn’t answer my question though about another vote if opinion were to change again.

Also, what about the lies from Project Fear? I assume you accept that the projections of the immediate impact were lies, so how can we trust what they are saying now? The ‘establishment’ have form in interpreting data to suit their own agenda.

No I didn't, that's true. So here's my answer. My point is not that we should have a referendum every time the people's collective opinion sways in the wind, but that a second referendum is needed in this current process. This process of leaving the EU has been triggered by a referendum and I think it needs ratifying by a referendum. If opinion changes in the future and another referendum is called for, well that would be a separate process. No, I wouldn't advocate it, but then I never advocated for the first one.

Project Fear? Pah, yeah it was daft. My biggest complaint about the referendum campaign was that there was no-one extolling the good things about the EU - of which I think there are many - it was just people saying it was shit and we should leave versus people saying it was shit but we should stay because we're ****ed if we leave. Barely anyone prominent saying "its good, there are things we need to improve, but we hugely benefit from it and it is a force for good in many areas of our lives", other than Nick Clegg who had just been humiliated in the general election. But hey, this paragraph is so 2016. The Project Fear stuff was a just a few stupid comments from Osborne and Cameron, there was a huge amount of sensible commentary from many many experts, both then and since, warning of the risks of leaving. We all know it will hurt if we leave with no deal.

Your post above is very eloquent - but in answer to the question - 'what do you hope to achieve', you only seem to be suggesting crashing out with no deal, with major disruption, followed by a trade deal in time. Its not the most reassurring, you must admit.

 

[Two Professors]

This is exactly the sort of abuse that has hardened the views of many Leavers.How can you have any form of debate with anybody who has an attitude like that?

 

[Thunder Bolt]

[tweet]1036527065657421824[/tweet]

 

[larus]

No I didn't, that's true. So here's my answer. My point is not that we should have a referendum every time the people's collective opinion sways in the wind, but that a second referendum is needed in this current process. This process of leaving the EU has been triggered by a referendum and I think it needs ratifying by a referendum. If opinion changes in the future and another referendum is called for, well that would be a separate process. No, I wouldn't advocate it, but then I never advocated for the first one.

Project Fear? Pah, yeah it was daft. My biggest complaint about the referendum campaign was that there was no-one extolling the good things about the EU - of which I think there are many - it was just people saying it was shit and we should leave versus people saying it was shit but we should stay because we're ****ed if we leave. Barely anyone prominent saying "its good, there are things we need to improve, but we hugely benefit from it and it is a force for good in many areas of our lives", other than Nick Clegg who had just been humiliated in the general election. But hey, this paragraph is so 2016. The Project Fear stuff was a just a few stupid comments from Osborne and Cameron, there was a huge amount of sensible commentary from many many experts, both then and since, warning of the risks of leaving. We all know it will hurt if we leave with no deal.

Your post above is very eloquent - but in answer to the question - 'what do you hope to achieve', you only seem to be suggesting crashing out with no deal, with major disruption, followed by a trade deal in time. Its not the most reassurring, you must admit.

As you acknowledge project fear, do you accept that a number of people will have been influenced to vote Remain by the scare stories?

In regards future referenda, then another gripe of the leavers is that the original referendum was built on lies by Heath. He knew that the ultimate goal of the EEC was to become a single state. This was never mentioned in the original vote, so we joined on more lies from the establishment.

Then, over time the EU has morphed from the EEC, via various treaties, into becoming the EU. At no point have we been consulted about this gradual loss of sovereignty. Do you honestly believe that, if there were another referendum now about the EU and it was remain, that the public would be given another choice in the future when the next steps towards closer integration are made? Make no mistake, this is a journey for the EU and the current state (as in position not country ) is not the end goal.
Of course not - this is our only shot to be free from the EU.

However, I do believe that the EU is ultimately doomed. The Euro cannot survive in its current structure - no serious economic writer thinks it’s viable as it currently works. The obvious solution of fiscal transfer won’t happen - the northern countries won’t transfer their wealth to other countries. So, we’re then left with either 2 different Euros, but this still doesn’t solve the Fiscal/Monetary conundrum, or soldiering on until the next downturn and the bond prices spike and means a country has to leave the Euro, destroying the myth of permanence. Next few months will be interesting when Italy prepares its budgets as wants to run a more expansionary policy which will blow the rules of the growth and stability pact.

So, bearing in mind I don’t believe we would ever get another opportunity to vote to leave, even if opinion wanted to, then I’m prepared for the disruption as, when the sh1t hits, which it will, I know that government, companies, individuals will work on solutions.

The disruption will be caused by regulatory issues more than WTO rules. WTO rules can be ‘ignored’ if both parties say they are working towards a FTA. And regulatory alignment is simple (if there’s a willingness by the EU to not be vindictive) as we are aligned already. If the EU say they don’t want to, then we should do a Singapore, reduce tariffs, reduce corporation taxes and attract companies to site their head-offices here (as per Juncker in his time as PM of Luxembourg).

 

[melias shoes]

We have to solve this somehow, though, we can agree on that? And we seem so far away from a solution under the present paradigm I doubt we will ever get one that doesn't leave most people, leavers and remainers alike, disenfranchised

The only way to overturn the will of the people is for the people to change their mind, and the only way for that to be expressed is to have a second referendum. If leave still wins, fine, and indeed, better, because now the argument that 'people didn't know what they were voting for' will be well and truly struck down.

But if the people have changed their mind, no-one should feel disenfranchised by that either, because the people will have spoken and democracy will continue to prevail.

You're right something needs to be done. People who voted to remain need to accept that we want to leave the EU.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I'm pretty sure you have in the past condemned the original referendum - now you want another one ?

Possibly I did. But being open minded, and willing to listen, enables me to be able to change my mind.

 

[larus]

Just like to make an observation. There appears to be civility on this thread now. [MENTION=232]Simster[/MENTION], [MENTION=805]Kalimantan Gull[/MENTION], [MENTION=1365]Westdene Seagull[/MENTION] (to name a few) are asking questions/replying and there seems to be less insults/snide comments.

Just because we voted leave doesn’t mean we’re thick, racist, xenophobic and it’s refreshing to see debate and less vitriol.

Can it last?