[Politics] Brexit

[beorhthelm]

I'm sorry to say. you're just plain wrong.
Brexit expected to lead the UK into recession within two years, investor survey says

56 percent of private equity executives and 57 percent of distressed debt investors said they expect a recession in the next two years.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned Wednesday that the U.K. needs to find ways to make its economy more efficient and that Brexit had already begun hurting the economy.




https://www.independent.co.uk/previe...-a8107921.html

and the first link... "We may be heading for a global recession over the next 12 months". my emphasis added. the rest of the links dont work, but one that does from City AM neglected to mention brexit. was that your point?

 

[The Clamp]

Happy Birthday and enjoy your drinks thing.

West isn't always BEST,by the way.Fred and Rose spring to mind!

Cheers! It's an early start to proceedings so I have supplies in for my hangover tomorrow!

 

[The Clamp]

and the first link... "We may be heading for a global recession over the next 12 months". my emphasis added. the rest of the links dont work, but one that does from City AM neglected to mention brexit. was that your point?

Well, right off the bat your're bullshitting because I have just checked all those links and they all work.
Anyway, you will never concede one negative towards brexit so you are a pointless person to debate with.
Really got to shoot now, pubs waiting. Bye.

 

[beorhthelm]

Anyway, you will never concede one negative towards brexit so you are a pointless person to debate with.

you must be confusing with someone else, i've conceded much on brexit to point of giving up on it. only here to poke fun at your laughably misguided views on the start of the recession. fact is your links are broken (why would i lie?) and the two i could view dont support your argument.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I didn't. Forecasts can be useful. All helps build up a picture.
Gotta go.
Layaz Playaz.

Enjoy ..

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Probably best not to use it as an argument then , eh.

Anyway, we are just going over old ground. I'm off out for my Birthday drinks thing. Ta-ra.

Have a good one! Enjoy!

 

[Deleted member 22389]

Well, right off the bat your're bullshitting because I have just checked all those links and they all work.
Anyway, you will never concede one negative towards brexit so you are a pointless person to debate with.
Really got to shoot now, pubs waiting. Bye.

They didn't work for me either.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Happy Birthday and enjoy your drinks thing.

West isn't always BEST,by the way.Fred and Rose spring to mind!

Enjoy ..

Have a good one! Enjoy!

**** me, an outbreak of unity and civility on the Brexit thread!

 

[JC Footy Genius]

**** me, an outbreak of civility on the Brexit thread!

It's probably not really his birthday and he's still logged on .. Back to the trenches.

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

It's probably not really his birthday and he's still logged on .. Back to the trenches.

I'd still check on what's in the cake............................

 

[larus]

[MENTION=240]larus[/MENTION]

Brexit expected to lead the UK into recession within two years, investor survey says

56 percent of private equity executives and 57 percent of distressed debt investors said they expect a recession in the next two years.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned Wednesday that the U.K. needs to find ways to make its economy more efficient and that Brexit had already begun hurting the economy.




https://www.independent.co.uk/previ...global-recession-next-12-months-a8107921.html


http://www.bmmagazine.co.uk/opinion/watch-out-start-ups-a-recession-is-coming/


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/15/bre...on-within-two-years-investor-survey-says.html

http://uk.businessinsider.com/mark-carney-knows-a-recession-is-coming-2017-11

https://www.forbes.com/sites/france...k-could-be-going-into-recession/#465525985367

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/8...causes-financial-crash-credit-crunch-UK-close

http://www.cityam.com/284361/fund-manager-seneca-predicts-uk-headed-recession-2020


Fund manager Seneca predicts the UK is headed for a recession in 2020



http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/166024/henderson-prepare-for-recession-in-2019.aspx

Janus Henderson: Prepare for Recession in 2019
One expert predicts we will see a significant slowdown in global growth this year, with a recession following either next year or 2020

Need |I go on?

In 2 years time. OMG, how pathetic . They’re your experts. And in other news, scientists are predicting that this winter will be colder than the summer.

You’ve made my day. Best laugh I’ve had all week - well, since someone didn’t understand a chart and thought it looked suspicious.

 

[pastafarian]

Extract from Dan Hannan's blog. Hannan was quite a big noise in the campaign for Brexit. This is where he stands now. I think the point here is that even Hannan recognises that the UKs situation is a little more nuanced than simply 'in' or 'out' and he does acknowledge the closeness of the referendum vote. Very few of our thread's Brexiteers frame things in quite this way:

Obviously, no one gets 100 per cent of what they want in a situation like this. I won’t, you won’t and, come to that, Theresa May won’t, because prime ministers must sometimes compromise, just like everyone else. Still, it seemed to me that the rough outlines of an eventual deal were clear on the morning of 24th June 2016. A 52-48 outcome pointed to some sort of association that stopped short of membership. Britain would keep most of the economic aspects of the EU while losing most of the political ones. A compromise would be found on immigration, perhaps allowing EU nationals to take up job offers in the UK without subsidies from the British taxpayer. Britain would stay in a number of EU programmes, paying its share of the bill, but would withdraw from the quasi-federal institutions in Brussels. We’d end up, very broadly, in an EFTA-type arrangement, à la Suisse.

Not really new news though is it. Hannan has always pushed towards a Free Trade Agreement model with the single market as a replacement for membership of the single market, always championed Britain trading globally without the shackles of The Customs Union, and he has always pushed for some sort of preference for EU workers who have a job already lined up to come to, rather than EU free movement which permits so much more.

His blog piece is spot on though in commenting that remaining in The Customs Union as we leave membership of the single market, as remainers are pushing for, is harmful and preposterous .


I was prepared for some adjustments to be made to that model, but I was not prepared to end up with absolutely the most harmful outcome imaginable, namely leaving the Single Market while keeping the Customs Union. Boris Johnson is reported to have said, in private, that this would be worse than not leaving at all. If that’s what he thinks, he’s bang on. Giving Brussels 100 per cent control of our trade policy with zero per cent input would plainly leave us poorer and weaker than now.

Yet Labour is now in the bizarre position of demanding this worst-of-all-worlds outcome. “What we want to do is we want to remain in the Customs Union,” said Emily Thornberry on Tuesday, adopting, as she often does, the tone of a primary school teacher addressing six-year-olds. “We don’t want any faffing around with any of the nonsense that the Government is coming up with in relation to alternatives to the Customs Union.”

Labour is cynically pushing what it knows to be a terrible idea, not because it aims for a better Brexit, but because it sees a chance to discomfit the Government. Its leaders know perfectly well what is wrong with the Customs Union. Jeremy Corbyn spoke as recently as January about how it was “protectionist against developing countries”. Barry Gardiner, his trade spokesman, set out in terms why a customs union for a non-member wouldn’t work: it would, he correctly explained, mean that Britain would have to match all EU concessions vis-à-vis third countries, but those countries would be required to reciprocate only to the EU 27, not to Britain. Our home market, in other words, would become a bargaining chip for Brussels to use for the benefit of the 27.

It’s clear enough what Labour’s game is. It is focused on trying to defeat, or even bring down, the Government, and will back any Brexit proposal, however preposterous, that might advance that objective.

And he goes on……..

https://www.conservativehome.com/th...our-demands-a-worst-of-all-worlds-brexit.html

 

[pastafarian]

It's probably not really his birthday

Its not, his birthday is Friday. But don’t spoil his excitement, we don’t want him back on here full of sugar, over tired and in a tizz going his usual postal self because you told him his party, on the wrong day, doesn’t count.

 

[larus]

As I said earlier, I assumed from the uproar by two or three Brexit enthusiasts that Clamp had made a slip (rather like JC's statement that the EU was running a deficit with the UK). In fact, I see from the above that he didn't - you have simply misread a standard form of English usage. It might be best to keep your head down from this point.

Please tell me where this “Undeniable” recession is then. Where is it happening? Where is it visible? Why are markets expecting interest rates to rise in the near future if there is an impending recession?

I think you remainers really have no financial understanding. We’ve already ascertained that [MENTION=409]Herr Tubthumper[/MENTION] doesn’t understand graphs. (In case you missed that, go back a few days and have a good laugh on that).

 

[WATFORD zero]

I do think that it's become blindingly obvious, even to the vast majority, what is going to happen in the next 8 weeks.

But if you haven't realised yet, I think I should be the first to warn you that I have EVEN WORSE NEWS about Santa Claus and the Tooth fairy

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Please tell me where this “Undeniable” recession is then. Where is it happening? Where is it visible? Why are markets expecting interest rates to rise in the near future if there is an impending recession?

I think you remainers really have no financial understanding. We’ve already ascertained that [MENTION=409]Herr Tubthumper[/MENTION] doesn’t understand graphs. (In case you missed that, go back a few days and have a good laugh on that).

Whilst I probably didn’t make my point very well, although another poster got it, I stand by my suspicion of the theory and motive behind that graph. It is clearly biased towards demand, totally ignores supply and with a line which is, in effect, the inverse of the other line, imho designed to mislead. If the penny drops feel free to challenge this, or as [MENTION=12947]Lincoln Imp[/MENTION] suggests maybe just keep your head down instead of getting frustrated and calling everyone thick?

 

[CHAPPERS]

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...gration-good-for-britain-bust-myths-austerity

Cut the niceties. Skip the jargon. Let us speak the plain truth, however ugly. What is driving this country headlong into a chaotic and punishing Brexit is a blind desire to cut immigration. That’s why people voted to leave the EU, politicians and pundits tell us. That’s what makes a Norway-style deal impossible, since it would almost certainly allow freedom of movement with mainland Europe – and any prime minister accepting that would be strung up by the press for treachery.

As long as Brexit is a synonym for keeping out foreigners, there can be no hope for meaningful compromise with the rest of the EU. The Lords can inflict endless defeats on Theresa May. An entire dinosaur gallery of has-been politicians can clamber on rice sacks to issue grave warnings. All will be drowned out by this one guttural roar.

Yet the anti-migrant arguments are a toxic alloy of barefaced lies and naked bigotry. None are new. But they were feverishly circulated in the days before the 2016 referendum. This time, crucially, migrants were made scapegoats for the misery caused by the government’s own drastic spending cuts – for a buckling NHS, a cash-starved school system and falling wages.


The definitive guide to how that happened is a study from King’s College London, which analyses almost 15,000 articles published online during the Brexit campaign by 20 news outlets, including the BBC and all the national papers. Despite its thoroughness, the media has barely covered it – perhaps unsurprisingly given what it implies about the state of our press.

Researchers found immigration to be the most prominent issue in the 10 weeks running up to the vote, leading 99 front pages. Of those, more than three-quarters were from the four most virulently leave newspapers: the Sun, the Mail, the Express and the Telegraph. Brexiteers fed their papers’ scare stories about immigration – no matter how scurrilous. Recall how Penny Mordaunt and the Vote Leave campaign claimed that Turkish murderers and terrorists were queueing up to come to the UK. Never mind that David Cameron immediately decried the lie. Never mind that this is the same country for whose tyrant leader Mordaunt, Theresa May and the rest rolled out the red carpet this week. Anything to fling some mud and get a headline.

“When not associated with rape, murder or violence, migrants were often characterised as job stealers or benefit tourists,” observes the academics’ report. So grab-handedly abhorrent were these newcomers that they were simultaneously taking our jobs and stealing our dole money. Or else they were jostling British mothers out of maternity wards and cramming their kids into British classrooms.

Such poisonous stories were happily ventriloquised by Boris Johnson, Liam Fox, Chris Grayling and Michael Gove. Their reward for helping to generate the hatred that will scar this country for years was, naturally, a big job in government. Their targets, on the other hand, have to live in a society in which racial prejudice is not just normalised but tacitly encouraged by cabinet ministers.

Yet time and time again, the politicians’ claims were false. The men and women who have come here from Budapest or Prague are like previous generations of arrivals: young, educated at someone else’s expense and here to work. They aren’t low-skilled labour but what former government economist Jonathan Portes describes as “ordinary, productive, middle income, middle-skilled – the sort of people our economy actually needs”. Study after study has failed to find any evidence of significant undercutting of wages. Far from jumping the queue, analysis published by the Institute for Fiscal Studies shows they are much less likely to be on benefits or in social housing than their UK-born counterparts.
Migrants from eastern Europe pay billions more in taxes to Britain than they take out in public spending. Far from squeezing hospitals and schools, they subsidise and even staff them. Rather than take jobs, they help create them. What has drained money from our public services and held down our wages is the banking crash, and the Tories’ spending cuts. As former Bank of England rate-setter David Blanchflower concludes in a forthcoming book on Brexit and Trump: “Government-imposed austerity has meant their money [migrants’ taxes] has not been used to finance the services they are entitled to, hence the overcrowding.” In one of the most breathtakingly cynical moves of our time, the very same ministers making the cuts looked at the fallout they created – and blamed migrants.


The Tories haven’t created this climate alone, of course. From Tony Blair to Ed Miliband, Labour leaders have marched alongside, muttering about “legitimate concerns” and handing out anti-immigration mugs. Forget about the evidence or leadership or having a backbone. Never mind the surveys showing that however much people dislike immigration in the abstract, they appreciate migrants.

Imagine Labour repealing gay marriage to placate misguided voters, or restricting women from working in order to boost wages for men. You cannot. But torching non-British workers in order to score political points is still deemed acceptable.

As shadow home secretary Diane Abbott observed , the point about pandering to racism – or whatever euphemistic camouflage you want to stick on it – is that it’s a beast whose appetite is never satisfied. One day the target is immigrants without documents; the next it’s a “swarm” of Poles and 100 Indian doctors blocked from taking up their hospital jobs; and by the end of the week it’s 63 of the Windrush generation deported, and countless more plunged into poverty and homelessness.

Having spoken up for migrants during the referendum, Jeremy Corbyn thankfully does not share this same soft racism. But neither is he doing enough to challenge it. Among the six tests Labour’s Keir Starmer has set for Brexit is the familiar dog-whistle about “fair management of migration”.

Labour frontbenchers evidently believe they have to promise a Brexit that is sufficiently racist for the press and the hard right. In the old Blairite days, we’d have called this triangulation – take minority-ethnic support for granted, while wooing leave voters. Whatever it’s called, it’s a tawdry tactic that soon gets rumbled.

The point about opinions is that they can be shifted. Just see what Corbyn’s team has achieved on austerity in two years. What was once an economic orthodoxy is now recognised as a failure – because Labour stood up for both the evidence and its own better instincts. There are plenty of parallels here: a policy dreamed up by the Tory right, to which the left shamefacedly paid lip service; a mounting body of evidence that it was wrong; and at ground level a lasting legacy of stunted and broken lives. Austerity was urgent in 2010, essential in 2015 and is a relic in 2018. Much of the credit for that should go to Corbyn’s party. Now it should do the same with immigration.

Or else, as one Corbynite frontbencher admits: “You can’t keep telling West Yorkshire one thing, and Islington another.” And you won’t avert a hard Brexit until you face down the intolerance that is driving it.

 

[nicko31]

Torygraph says CU beyond 2021, but will the EU agree to that? I'm almost starting to feel sorry for these Brexiteers, completely stitched up...

 

[The Clamp]

Its not, his birthday is Friday. But don’t spoil his excitement, we don’t want him back on here full of sugar, over tired and in a tizz going his usual postal self because you told him his party, on the wrong day, doesn’t count.

If you had enough self awareness to realise what this kind of weird, stalky behaviour made you look like, you'd die of shame. Though it doesn't seem like anyone made a good enough job of raising you for you to have the capacity for shame.
You know my birthday and I doubt I would have told you. Do you know how utterly creepy that makes you look.

So I'm going to ask you nicely, once, to leave out the personal info and stalking behaviour from now on. If I see any more of it, this will escalate. Rapidly.

You're a nasty piece of work, Pastafarian.

Luckily, it's only yourself you make look like a fool. Buddying up with scum like Larus too? Not a good look.

Yes, yes, I'm supposed to have you on ignore, blah blah blah.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Torygraph says CU beyond 2021, but will the EU agree to that? I'm almost starting to feel sorry for these Brexiteers, completely stitched up...

Everyone knows that staying in the customs union solves lot of the problems with brexit - except the goons and clowns in charge of our 'negotiations' [emoji38]ol: