[Politics] Brexit

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

You're welcome. Thought provoking and led to one of the deepest self-dug holes I have ever seen.

The government have said they are seeking to carry over all existing EU trade agreements with third countries. All those countries have said they would like this outcome too. So theoretically we would retain any trade benefits then be free to change or build on them, prioritising our interests instead of diluting/catering for 27 other national interests. Easier said than done obviously.

Thanks. If that's the case then good news indeed. But I was also wondering about our potential exclusion from new deals signed by the wicked 27 from which we will be excluded - an opportunity cost of leaving - in the future. Of course this is unknowable at the present so it was a bit optimistic of me to expect data. Like much of the discussions we all enjoy so much I think 'we'll see.....' is the most appropriate position to adopt. I agree: "easier said than done". (Indeed, I think this could well be etched on the Brexit gravestone.)

 

[The Clamp]

Crikey! What has happened over the last few days that has the last few desperate Brexiteers on here going absolutely TURBO!!! Perhaps the overdue realisation that their ill thought out dream is collapsing. Lovely to see a hive mind meltdown from them. It's hilarious to witness.

Carry on...

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Thanks. If that's the case then good news indeed. But I was also wondering about our potential exclusion from new deals signed by the wicked 27 from which we will be excluded - an opportunity cost of leaving - in the future. Of course this is unknowable at the present so it was a bit optimistic of me to expect data. Like much of the discussions we all enjoy so much I think 'we'll see.....' is the most appropriate position to adopt. I agree: "easier said than done". (Indeed, I think this could well be etched on the Brexit gravestone.)

Well most remainers on this thread either claim to know the future or hold great store in projections/guesses by people who usually are proved completely wrong so factual real world data is usually inconveniant or 'thought provoking'.

Speaking of real data rather than remoaners favourite metric.. mystic foresight/guessing. If we compare annual % GDP growth with a smaller but still major G7 western economy, since we joined the EC/EU there's not a lot of difference.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicato...nd=2016&locations=CA-GB&start=1975&view=chart

How they achieved this being a smaller economy without belonging to a mainly political union , pooling/surrendering regulatory powers and trade policy and much much more might also be thought provoking.

 

[The Clamp]

Yep, summat has defo got the Brexit Boys spooked this last week. A joy to watch it unfold.

 

[Raleigh Chopper]

You claim to know the mind of all Brexiteers

The people that have most to be worried about are the undemocratic loons if they actually succeeded in thwarting Brexit, unfortunately, they are too arrogant/stupid to realise this.

Nope.
Undemocratic is the country saying we are going to leave whether you like it or not.
Democratic is giving us the opportunity to vote to say if we want to leave or stay.
Super dooper cream on the top democracy is to give everyone the chance to see if we still want to leave now that everyone knows what the final outcome of the negotiations are, I think few people on both sides realised at the time just how complicated it is with negotiations leading to stuff added and/or taken away.
You are democratic but not super dooper, I believe this country is the cradle of democracy, something to be very proud of, so the 2nd vote should back that up.
Try and admit at least that although you strongly want to leave it is not going well with a totally divided government and cabinet, a very weak pro remain PM an opposistion that changes its mind weekly and a House Of Lords that is blocking every thing being passed through it.
You may not want it, you may be scared of the result, but as it is so important, especially to our kids and their kids and the future of this country, that we must be given a chance to see if we like what our useless Government comes up with.
For what it's worth I think we would still leave as I have totally given up with a large portion of 'the great British public'.
If it is a cracking deal I may well change my mind.
If it's a useless watered down, hardly worth having deal that has pandered to Brussels, would you change yours?
Either could still very well happen.

 

[GT49er]

Democratic is giving us the opportunity to vote to say if we want to leave or stay.

Seem to remember that's exactly what happened.

 

[daveinprague]

Seem to remember that's exactly what happened.

In view of what has been revealed since the referendum, ie downright lies, lets say from both sides.
What scares you about a 2nd referendum?

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

Well most remainers on this thread either claim to know the future or hold great store in projections/guesses by people who usually are proved completely wrong so factual real world data is usually inconveniant or 'thought provoking'.

Speaking of real data rather than remoaners favourite metric.. mystic foresight/guessing. If we compare annual % GDP growth with a smaller but still major G7 western economy, since we joined the EC/EU there's not a lot of difference.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicato...nd=2016&locations=CA-GB&start=1975&view=chart

How they achieved this being a smaller economy without belonging to a mainly political union , pooling/surrendering regulatory powers and trade policy and much much more might also be thought provoking.

All good stuff. There's not much more fun to be had on a sunny Sunday morning than looking a raw data from the OECD. But I think the Canada parallel might be comparing oranges with apples? However we probably see different patterns in the same figures.

Speaking purely anecdotally (well at least I admit it), I remember visiting EU institutions when we were the 'Sick man of Europe' and looking around thinking things at the time looked a lot better on that side of the Channel. These were the days when Mrs T. backed both the Single Market and the expansion of the EU. Funny how things turn out - something we can all agree on (maybe!).

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

In view of what has been revealed since the referendum, ie downright lies, lets say from both sides.
What scares you about a 2nd referendum?

On this very topic. news this morning that there is going to be a 'huge' demo by students in favour of a 2nd referendum on the basis that (I think) there are claimed to be 1.4 million voters who were too young to vote in the referendum but who will be old enough to do so when we leave the EU. Given that at the same time approx. 1.4 million* old Brexit voters will have shuffled off the planet, this would make the maths interesting.

*I've made that figure up

 

[WATFORD zero]

Rumours of an extension to the extension (sorry, an extension to the implementation period)

 

[vegster]

All good stuff. There's not much more fun to be had on a sunny Sunday morning than looking a raw data from the OECD. But I think the Canada parallel might be comparing oranges with apples? However we probably see different patterns in the same figures.

Speaking purely anecdotally (well at least I admit it), I remember visiting EU institutions when we were the 'Sick man of Europe' and looking around thinking things at the time looked a lot better on that side of the Channel. These were the days when Mrs T. backed both the Single Market and the expansion of the EU. Funny how things turn out - something we can all agree on (maybe!).

A pal of mine who voted out recently had a short stay in Berlin with his wife, his exact words " It puts this country to shame " " Great cheap transport around the city, food in restaurants very good value and clean and well maintained unlike over here. " ...

.Just goes to show being in the heart of the EU does not have to be bad, maybe all the angst about the state of our country and our economy was cleverly manipulated in to blaming it all on Europe and that if we were out all our wealth will suddenly reappear ? Of course we know that that will never happen, Mr's May's " Vision " of " An economy that works for everyone " will never occur, not as we enter a 10th year of stagnating real wage growth and exit frictionless trade with our closest partners.

. Whatever deal we get we will see no explosion of well paid jobs, almost certainly we will be expected to tighten our belts and carry on as minimum wage slaves as we will be exhorted to compete with world trading blocks by keeping our production costs down.... ie, wages. There will be no " Jam Tomorrow " just the hope of jam sometime next week... maybe, eventually .

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

A pal of mine who voted out recently had a short stay in Berlin with his wife, his exact words " It puts this country to shame " " Great cheap transport around the city, food in restaurants very good value and clean and well maintained unlike over here. " ...

.Just goes to show being in the heart of the EU does not have to be bad, maybe all the angst about the state of our country and our economy was cleverly manipulated in to blaming it all on Europe and that if we were out all our wealth will suddenly reappear ? Of course we know that that will never happen, Mr's May's " Vision " of " An economy that works for everyone " will never occur, not as we enter a 10th year of stagnating real wage growth and exit frictionless trade with our closest partners.

. Whatever deal we get we will see no explosion of well paid jobs, almost certainly we will be expected to tighten our belts and carry on as minimum wage slaves as we will be exhorted to compete with world trading blocks by keeping our production costs down.... ie, wages. There will be no " Jam Tomorrow " just the hope of jam sometime next week... maybe, eventually .

Yes things are pretty glum. Not as glum as the 1970s and 80s version of glum but (and I expect a tirade of abuse here) the 'Blair years' were a time of some optimism and hope. This could of course have been

a) total false consciousness on my behalf and/or
b) caused by things other than T. Blair (of whom I'm no great fan) and our membership of the EU i.e. it could have been totally coincidental

For all the flag waving (and I'm not against flag waving per se), I really can't detect any genuine optimism that Brexit will deliver, I really can't. Most of the rhetoric has been of the 'sooner we get out the better' variety plus a few Boris flourishes of sub Churchillian bollocks.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Speaking purely anecdotally (well at least I admit it), I remember visiting EU institutions when we were the 'Sick man of Europe' and looking around thinking things at the time looked a lot better on that side of the Channel. These were the days when Mrs T. backed both the Single Market and the expansion of the EU. Funny how things turn out - something we can all agree on (maybe!).

A pal of mine who voted out recently had a short stay in Berlin with his wife, his exact words " It puts this country to shame " " Great cheap transport around the city, food in restaurants very good value and clean and well maintained unlike over here. " ...

I always a recall a family holiday/road trip we had in the 1980's which was a combination of camping, guest houses and hotels, but we went through and stayed in large sways of France, Italy, Switzerland, West Germany and Belgium - Fair enough, we were hardly going near inner city areas etc, but it struck me even then as a kid how better everything was - the roads, the infrastructure, the city and town centres, shops, eateries, facilities, public transport, health care (my older brother picked up a chronic ear infection in Germany and required a public Doctor) etc - I've obviously been to Europe many times since, but the memory of that holiday, probably because it was 5 different countries, always stayed with me.

 

[portslade seagull]

Groovy gang out in force this Morning all gigging each other up again. Quite sad really

 

[vegster]

Groovy gang out in force this Morning all gigging each other up again. Quite sad really

Not as sad as waking up in Portslade on a Sunday, I feel for you.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Rumours of an extension to the extension (sorry, an extension to the implementation period)

A mere 6 months to June 2021 muted, to a 'temporary' Customs Partnership to March 2022 are 2 of the dates being bandied about. I'm sure it'll still be December 2020 though.

I wonder how the cabinet spilt into the 2 Conservative and Unionist Negotiating Teams are getting on with their ideas to a workable Customs Union Non-Tariff alternative/solution? Only 2 days until next Tuesday when they've got to see The PM.

 

[WATFORD zero]

I wonder how the cabinet spilt into the 2 Conservative and Unionist Negotiating Teams are getting on with their ideas to a workable Customs Union Non-Tariff alternative/solution? Only 2 days until next Tuesday when they've got to see The PM.

Well I'm sure this will just be the final details, crossing the Ts and dotting the Is because they will have been working solidly on it in the 2 years since the vote. It wouldn't just be something they've come up with in the last 5 days would it

And, slightly more worrying, they then have to get agreement to their 'solution' from the EU in 6 weeks.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Well I'm sure this will just be the final details, crossing the Ts and dotting the Is because they will have been working solidly on it in the 2 years since the vote. It wouldn't just be something they've come up with in the last 5 days would it

And, slightly more worrying, they then have to get agreement to their 'solution' from the EU in 6 weeks.

Additionally that 6 weeks includes the 10 day Westminster Whitsun recess from 24/05. Then after that European Council meeting on 28-29/06, there's the Westminster Summer recess from 24/07-04/09, Conference from 13/09-09/10, before November's well earned recess on 06/11. I wouldn't worry, there's plenty of time - Tick-Tock etc.

 

[daveinprague]

Groovy gang out in force this Morning all gigging each other up again. Quite sad really

Being scared of a 2nd referendum is fairly sad, considering the importance of the decision which could hurt the country for decades.. What scares you about a 2nd Referendum?

 

[larus]

Being scared of a 2nd referendum is fairly sad, considering the importance of the decision which could hurt the country for decades.. What scares you about a 2nd Referendum?

And would you like to commit to agreeing that (if there was a second referendum and the vote was remain), that any future changes (joining Euro, loss of rebate, major treaties, etc.) would be put to a referendum too?

It seems as though the remainers are complaining about democracy and harp on about “Oh, it was only an advisory referendum” (but it was made clear that the will of the people would be implemented, so surely you’d agree that any future changes in our relationship should be decided by the will of the people and not just 650 MPs, many who want to get on the EU gravy-train.