[Politics] Brexit

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

Ah. Minford. One of the heroes of Brexit. Thank you for mentioning him. The economist who said that his tariff-free proposals would "mostly eliminate British manufacturing" but that this isn't something we should worry about. In one of his kinder moments he agreed that we could have some sort of transition period whilst we ran down things like vehicle makers in the North East. "It would be like coal mining," he explained.

If I was a Leaver I would keep absolutely silent about him.

I think it's good that someone from the leavers' side does take the trouble of posting something a bit more substantial than the usual rather simplistic stuff. So I took the trouble of reading it. The authors do score some valid points in their critique the predictive validity of previous 'Whitehall' projections and forecasts. But I don't think their alternative is convincing. If you look at the list of references it is very, very narrow and often simply draws on their own previous work - they embrace 'the Cardiff model' with an enthusiasm which is a little bit predictable given that (I believe) it's Minford's own one.

They are far too optimistic about growth outside of the EU with a no-deal and this seems to be based on a hap-hazard set of trends (non-EU countries are doing pretty well; they sell lots to the EU; the EU's share of world trade is shrinking) which don't really cohere into a compelling case. They also supply us with the following which is quite frightening, implying that a lose-lose is somehow going to be dynamic which drives towards long term solution. In the words of Clint Eastwood: "are you feeling lucky, punk?". This is recklessness masquerading as serious political economy.

In terms of general annoyance to consumers, producers and governments on both sides plainly ‘no deal’ could generate a lot. However, this very annoyance and associated illegalities would force a quick series of practical solutions. Short term disruption is so infinitely annoying to ordinary citizens that governments on both sides would feel extreme pressure to sort it out by all means available: such means are readily available under international agreements and do not require a trade deal. Hence under a no deal breakdown short term disruption is a negative for both sides but each side would know it could be quickly removed. It acts as a general moderate incentive to both sides to find a deal but does not affect relative bargaining power.

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

I'll ask you then - In Kent, when will the A2 be duelled, The M20 widened, the lorry parks built off it, all the customs infrastructure, including the new CDS system, in place, tested and working, irrespective of the lower Thames crossing being built, that's also needed too? When?

ask someone who deals in all that
regards
DR

 

[vegster]

I'll ask you then - In Kent, when will the A2 be duelled, The M20 widened, the lorry parks built off it, all the customs infrastructure, including the new CDS system, in place, tested and working, irrespective of the lower Thames crossing being built, that's also needed too - When?

I'm hoping to still do a few runs to my favourite Belgian beer warehouse before Armageddon. http://www.vanuxeem.com/vanuxeem/en/6993-presentation.html

 

[CHAPPERS]

Bye bye Unilever.

 

[Hampster Gull]

'Dirty meat': Shocking hygiene failings discovered in US pig and chicken plants

https://www.theguardian.com/animals...lings-discovered-in-us-pig-and-chicken-plants

Can't wait for that trade deal. Yummy.

But didn’t Davis say we would race to the top not the bottom. Can’t wait for the USA to now sort their act out on their chicken and pig plants so they can trade with the new super power in town, the U.K.

 

[ManOfSussex]

ask someone who deals in all that
regards
DR

That's my point - nobody really is as it's not happening and it needs to be in place.

 

[Hampster Gull]

I'll ask you then - In Kent, when will the A2 be duelled, The M20 widened, the lorry parks built off it, all the customs infrastructure, including the new CDS system, in place, tested and working, irrespective of the lower Thames crossing being built, that's also needed too - When?

It’s ok MoS, we just need to build some huge car parks on our brand spanking new Bridge (to prove we are not turning inwards on ourselves) and a few customs offices. Job done.

 

[Baldseagull]

I think the uncertainty will go on for a long while yet. Taking emotion out of it, for a foreign investor, the UK is not high on the places to invest right now? Its a slow drip and our influence of the world stage is falling away.

John Redwood agrees.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

It’s ok MoS, we just need to build some huge car parks on our brand spanking new Bridge (to prove we are not turning inwards on ourselves) and a few customs offices. Job done.

I wonder what all the Little Englanders will think of a bridge connecting Britain to mainland Europe?

 

[vegster]

But didn’t Davis say we would race to the top not the bottom. Can’t wait for the USA to now sort their act out on their chicken and pig plants so they can trade with the new super power in town, the U.K.

Yep, don't forget that we will be big players now we have dropped out of one of the biggest co-operative trading groups in the world !.... heck, the yanks will be falling over themselves.

 

[Baldseagull]

I think it's good that someone from the leavers' side does take the trouble of posting something a bit more substantial than the usual rather simplistic stuff. So I took the trouble of reading it. The authors do score some valid points in their critique the predictive validity of previous 'Whitehall' projections and forecasts. But I don't think their alternative is convincing. If you look at the list of references it is very, very narrow and often simply draws on their own previous work - they embrace 'the Cardiff model' with an enthusiasm which is a little bit predictable given that (I believe) it's Minford's own one.

They are far too optimistic about growth outside of the EU with a no-deal and this seems to be based on a hap-hazard set of trends (non-EU countries are doing pretty well; they sell lots to the EU; the EU's share of world trade is shrinking) which don't really cohere into a compelling case. They also supply us with the following which is quite frightening, implying that a lose-lose is somehow going to be dynamic which drives towards long term solution. In the words of Clint Eastwood: "are you feeling lucky, punk?". This is recklessness masquerading as serious political economy.

In terms of general annoyance to consumers, producers and governments on both sides plainly ‘no deal’ could generate a lot. However, this very annoyance and associated illegalities would force a quick series of practical solutions. Short term disruption is so infinitely annoying to ordinary citizens that governments on both sides would feel extreme pressure to sort it out by all means available: such means are readily available under international agreements and do not require a trade deal. Hence under a no deal breakdown short term disruption is a negative for both sides but each side would know it could be quickly removed. It acts as a general moderate incentive to both sides to find a deal but does not affect relative bargaining power.

Yeah, if it gets real shitty, don't worry, that is a good sign that the government will soon do something to make it less shitty.

 

[pastafarian]

Our good friends and near neighbours De Nederlanders are planning for no deal - https://news.sky.com/story/dutch-ac...-blame-a-lack-of-clarity-from-the-uk-11258568



Cabinet finance minister Menno Snel wrote that 930 would be required in the event of a "no deal" Brexit, which is "conceivable" after "difficult" first-phase negotiations.
Perhaps as shocking is that 750 extra customs agents would be required even in the event of a Canada-style free trade deal with a transition period. Fifty have already been paid for.
As the finance ministry calculates it takes between nine and 22 months to train a customs officer, the Dutch government has green-lighted immediate recruiting, training, tendering of contracts and organising of housing.
Mr Snel wrote to Dutch MPs: "The divisions within the British Conservative Party and the remaining lack of clarity about the British input continue to impede the smooth running of the negotiations.
"It is therefore clear that the scenario that the UK leaves the EU on 29 March 2019 without a withdrawal agreement and without a transitional period is still conceivable.
"The red lines of the UK for the future relationship with the EU (leaving the internal market and customs union) mean that the trade relationship can not go much further than a trade agreement like the one the EU has concluded with Canada."



Perhaps David Davis could explain to them as only a self confessed 'charming b*stard' could in the style of that old Grolsch beer advert - Schtop! What are you doing?! The British Conservative Party is not ready yet!

Another good post from you after your Irish revelation, keep them coming.
So the Dutch have woken up, to add to the Irish that we are leaving membership of the single market and the customs union.
This news may be unwelcome to the few who still think we are not, heaven knows what the “Brexit wont happen” gang are going to make of it.

Any feedback as to why Rita Ore going to Kosovo was such astonishing news you felt people needed to comment on it?

 

[NorthstandRacoon]

I am sorry, you are NOT allowed to express this sort of opinion and will have the pack of NSC decend on you as you are unpatriotic, anti democracy and a raging lefty who wants to murder kittens in your spare time.

Hang your remoaning head in shame.

I've noticed! I should never had joined!

 

[pastafarian]

Ah. Minford. One of the heroes of Brexit. Thank you for mentioning him. The economist who said that his tariff-free proposals would "mostly eliminate British manufacturing" but that this isn't something we should worry about. In one of his kinder moments he agreed that we could have some sort of transition period whilst we ran down things like vehicle makers in the North East. "It would be like coal mining," he explained.

If I was a Leaver I would keep absolutely silent about him.

One day you will quote the extended paragraphs from that article in full to give full context as why he sees it as something that could be positive, and not just cherry pick "mostly eliminate British manufacturing", Even better why not quote the full article.
Oh wait, no you wont, that’s not in your weasel mis-representing handbook.

 

[pastafarian]

A bit of bleach and chlorine will sort the chicken meat out.

I am surprised so many of you remainers have stopped drinking chlorinated tap water.
Must be nice all that spring water........but not very environmentally friendly of you all

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I am surprised so many of you remainers have stopped drinking chlorinated tap water.
Must be nice all that spring water........but not very environmentally friendly of you all

My tap water isn’t chlorinated.

 

[Hampster Gull]

I wonder what all the Little Englanders will think of a bridge connecting Britain to mainland Europe?

Let’s ask them. I could do a roll call but I am sure they know who they are

 

[Dave the OAP]

I wonder what all the Little Englanders will think of a bridge connecting Britain to mainland Europe?

Put a few gun towers up to stop Johnny foreigner and it will be fine.


Marvellous blue passport scenes

 

[pastafarian]

The three or four thickest Brexiteers are obsessed with accusing people of having other accounts. I get it every time they have lost an argument or don't want to answer a question. It's usually Nibble but I have been accused of being about 3 different people. Sometimes Pissedasafartagain will just pop up and accuse me 24 hours after my last post, on his early morning rounds

For someone who wants to ignore me you sure do have a funny way of mentioning me a lot, it’s a bit odd-ball stalky.
I don’t think you are nibble. He admitted he didn’t even like football, where as you went to Withdean once and appear to have enjoyed yourself.
He did say in another thread very recently you were one of his fav posters though, which is nice, considering he mostly disappeared from here at the same time you joined.
As I have told you elsewhere, I look after someone who is disabled and sometimes these early rises you seem to hate are just something that happens, im not keen on it, but needs must, I don’t know why you insist on labouring this out. Let it go.
And why the F, should it bother you when someone responds to you, ill do it 24hrs later, 3 days later or a week later if I want. Depends when I have a look at NSC and catch up on this thread, don’t know who made you the response narcissist nazi post monitor that wants instant recognition. Get a grip, you are not as important as you think you are.

 

[The Clamp]

For someone who wants to ignore me you sure do have a funny way of mentioning me a lot, it’s a bit odd-ball stalky.
I don’t think you are nibble. He admitted he didn’t even like football, where as you went to Withdean once and appear to have enjoyed yourself.
He did say in another thread very recently you were one of his fav posters though, which is nice, considering he mostly disappeared from here at the same time you joined.
As I have told you elsewhere, I look after someone who is disabled and sometimes these early rises you seem to hate are just something that happens, im not keen on it, but needs must, I don’t know why you insist on labouring this out. Let it go.
And why the F, should it bother you when someone responds to you, ill do it 24hrs later, 3 days later or a week later if I want. Depends when I have a look at NSC and catch up on this thread, don’t know who made you the response narcissist nazi post monitor that wants instant recognition. Get a grip, you are not as important as you think you are.