[Politics] Brexit

[JC Footy Genius]

Wise words, it's uphill all the way for the next 5-7 years at least.

That's your best guess then. Mine is three at the most. Business craves certainty, once a deal is signed (or not ) everyone knows where we stand and we adapt. It's all down hill (positive/easier) once the bi lateral trade deals with the fastest growing economies in the world kick in though.

 

[vegster]

If anything it won't be Brexit that would bring this country down, it would be the constant negativity that is being fed too people.

You could forget Brexit for now and just focus on the absolute mess our country is already in. Do you not see with your own eyes the continuing cuts in services and quality of life, the wage stagnation expected to last til 2025 and then .... then we make it harder to trade with our nearest trading partners !

 

[vegster]

That's your best guess then. Mine is three at the most. Business craves certainty, once a deal is signed (or not ) everyone knows where we stand and we adapt. It's all down hill (positive/easier) once the bi lateral trade deals with the fastest growing economies in the world kick in though.

Not my " Guess" , the estimate is from the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

 

[Two Professors]

You could forget Brexit for now and just focus on the absolute mess our country is already in. Do you not see with your own eyes the continuing cuts in services and quality of life, the wage stagnation expected to last til 2025 and then .... then we make it harder to trade with our nearest trading partners !

Thought you lived in Sussex,not in Scotland!

 

[JC Footy Genius]

If anything it won't be Brexit that would bring this country down, it would be the constant negativity that is being fed too people.

Well said, the biggest threat to our country are the undemocratic loons intent on subverting the democratic will of the British people. Shameful.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Not my " Guess" , the estimate is from the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

What is the track record of the OBR,IFS, most/all economists on estimating the future?

Helpful hint - See guess

 

[vegster]

What is the track record of the OBR,IFS, most/all economists on estimating the future?

Helpful hint - See guess

What is the track record of untrained amateurs forecasting our future economy ? To my mind I can see we are in the sh@t now and will be for some time and then we make it harder for ourselves in 2019 !

 

[JC Footy Genius]

What is the track record of untrained amateurs forecasting our future economy ? To my mind I can see we are in the sh@t now and will be for some time and then we make it harder for ourselves in 2019 !

About the same as highly paid 'professionals' (50/50)? For sh@t see record employment with year on year growth. I define sh@t as double-digit inflation, 8%+ unemployment, tens of thousands of repossession, reccession etc

 

[vegster]

About the same as highly paid 'professionals' (50/50)? For sh@t see record employment with year on year growth. I define sh@t as double-digit inflation, 8%+ unemployment, tens of thousands of repossession, reccession etc[/QUOTE]

Oh, so we are already in the Sunny Uplands ? ... Lord help us !

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Well said, the biggest threat to our country are the undemocratic loons intent on subverting the democratic will of the British people. Shameful.

Just out of interest, can you tell me if you think it would be an undemocratic situation if an election was called next autumn and one party included in its manifesto a pledge to hold a referendum on the final deal?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Just out of interest, can you tell me if you think it would be an undemocratic situation if an election was called next autumn and one party included in its manifesto a pledge to hold a referendum on the final deal?

I think you have asked this before and the answer remains the same. Pretty sure the Lib Dems stood on that platform at the last GE and come a distant third (7%) to parties (82% + of the vote) who stated they were committed to respecting the referendum vote ... exit single market/custom union etc. 52%, 82% +. At what point do you accept democracy ... best of three, four, five?

 

[Hampster Gull]

If we move on to the future trade element talks in December (looks likely) that could be genuinely viewed as a positive. Only eight months since triggering Article 50 and substantial progress made in disintangling ourselves from a club we have been members for over 40 years. This thread will be an interesting place if we complete a mutually beneficial trade deal by 2019 ....

All forward looking and fingers crossed. Fair enough.

A mutually beneficial trade deal will be reached in my view, but relative to what we had it will very poor. It will be spun in the U.K. of course and some may believe it as they believed that £350m a week would go to the NHS when Boris said it, like they believed we would be negotiating from day one in Berlin not Brussels as per David D, that the deal would be one of the easiest in human history as per Liam Fox, that nothing will change for EU nationals in the U.K. post Brexit re Daniel Hannan, that Britain will sign up 40 new trade deals the day after Brexit again from Liam and so on. Populism is rife, the thing is the USA can move on from Trump fairly easily, the U.K. is stuck in a bit of a mess for much longer

 

[Lincoln Imp]

I think you have asked this before and the answer remains the same. Pretty sure the Lib Dems stood on that platform at the last GE and come a distant third (7%) to parties (82% + of the vote) who stated they were committed to respecting the referendum vote ... exit single market/custom union etc. 52%, 82% +. At what point do you accept democracy ... best of three, four, five?

I have not asked this clearly-expressed question before and I can't help noticing that you make no attempt to answer it. I was simply trying to measure your opinion against a situation that could arise next year. Fair enough though, we all have the right to swerve.

(For what it's worth I was visualising a situation - unlikely I accept - that the government was brought down on the back of achieving a poor and damaging deal and the Labour Party came to the view that it would be in the country's, and it's own, interests to offer a referendum on whether that deal was acceptable.)

 

[Gwylan]

Serious question. Why did you think the negotiations would go better? They are a stronger and much bigger economy and therefore hold the aces. Or is this an example of believing they need us more?

I am not after a row, I am genuinely interested.

It's a good question. I certainly didn't believe any nonsense about them needing us more than we needed them - there were several quotes from German car manufacturers saying that the preserving the single market was more important than sales to the UK and I had no reason to disbelieve them.

But, while the balance was in their favour, it was in the EU's interest to get some sort of deal and I thought our negotiators would recognise that.

The Tories, after all, claim to be the party of business and here we had businesses screaming for a deal. Car manufacturers wanting to stay in the customs union to preserve just in time manufacturing, large landowners and agricultural producers desperate for migrant labour, the City anxious to maintain passporting rights, ports keen to stay open and flourishing etc.

It was these firms that financed the Tories, that voted for them and provided failed politicians with their directorships when they were booted out. I couldn't see why the Tories would want to antagonise their supporter base in that way.

So, that's why I thought that the negotiators would do a better job. I knew there would be pain but I expected it to be short term as some of the changes to our infrastructure came through. If we rely on WTO rules, we're heading for 10 to 15 years of economic doom. I really can't see why anyone would want that.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

All forward looking and fingers crossed. Fair enough.

A mutually beneficial trade deal will be reached in my view, but relative to what we had it will very poor. It will be spun in the U.K. of course and some may believe it as they believed that £350m a week would go to the NHS when Boris said it, like they believed we would be negotiating from day one in Berlin not Brussels as per David D, that the deal would be one of the easiest in human history as per Liam Fox, that nothing will change for EU nationals in the U.K. post Brexit re Daniel Hannan, that Britain will sign up 40 new trade deals the day after Brexit again from Liam and so on. Populism is rife, the thing is the USA can move on from Trump fairly easily, the U.K. is stuck in a bit of a mess for much longer

In what way will a mutually beneficial trade deal that you agree we will get, be 'poorer' than we what we have now?. Can you be specific? Nothing will change for the Eu citizens in the UK according to all I have read about the negotiations. Apart from voting rights which the EU can't agree on. Can you provide a link or quote where Hannan said we would sign up to 40 trade deals the day after Brexit?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I have not asked this clearly-expressed question before and I can't help noticing that you make no attempt to answer it. I was simply trying to measure your opinion against a situation that could arise next year. Fair enough though, we all have the right to swerve.

(For what it's worth I was visualising a situation - unlikely I accept - that the government was brought down on the back of achieving a poor and damaging deal and the Labour Party came to the view that it would be in the country's, and it's own, interests to offer a referendum on whether that deal was acceptable.)

I think you have but can't be bothered to trawl through past posts. Speaking of swerving, would you agree a referendum and a GE resulting in clear majorities in both for leaving the EU should be respected and enacted?

 

[portslade seagull]

About the same as highly paid 'professionals' (50/50)? For sh@t see record employment with year on year growth. I define sh@t as double-digit inflation, 8%+ unemployment, tens of thousands of repossession, reccession etc[/QUOTE]

Oh, so we are already in the Sunny Uplands ? ... Lord help us !

So you would prefer record unemployment to what we have now. Weird each to there own I suppose

 

[ManOfSussex]

She wouldn't get £50 a time in Stratford.Far too many Rumanians flogging it for a tenner down at the bus station!

I see she had an HIV test recently, as all self respecting sex workers should do- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42094008

Very sensible. If you're sleeping with Kwasi Kwarteng, who's also sleeping with another cabinet minster in Liz Truss, you're really not going to have a clue who's in your sexual network.

 

[vegster]

So you would prefer record unemployment to what we have now. Weird each to there own I suppose

I think you misunderstand, JC Footy Genius thinks that our current economy is as good as it gets. I for one would LIKE to earn more in wages therefore paying more tax which would help fund our NHS and keep local services going. Why would I want record unemployment ? that's frankly a weird assumption on your part, but hey, each to their own.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

I think you have but can't be bothered to trawl through past posts. Speaking of swerving, would you agree a referendum and a GE resulting in clear majorities in both for leaving the EU should be respected and enacted?

As you still decline to respond a straightforward question except by asking a simplistic one of your own I think I'll let your silence speak for itself and have an early night. Sleep well.