[Politics] Brexit

[Brighton Mod]

You may wish to check your statements for accuracy, such as:

Rising prices for clothes, hotel rooms and petrol have led to the highest rate of inflation in nearly two years, official figures show. Inflation rose to 1.0% in September, up from 0.6% in August, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

So is inflation falling?

Philip Hammond has admitted that the Brexit vote’s blow to the economy would force the government to borrow £122bn more than hoped as he pushed back government plans to balance the books in his autumn statement.

So is borrowing down?

Unemployment saw a "small" rise of 10,000 to 1.66 million, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

So is unemployment down?

Why are real people only found in factory lines or building sites

Come back when you're able to get some content correct.

What were the inflation figures for October? I await your response.

Hammond pointing at lower figures, another member of the establishment playing it down so that he can beat expectations. Investment in business was falling pre Brexit, it cannot be looked at in isolation to every other aspect of the economy.

There are real people in many other sectors of the economy, but we mainly hear from journalists, consultants, politicians and media presenters. The arguement presented by television is not balanced and includes many forecasts, opinions and predictions, thats not news.

 

[Soulman]

I've never heard whingeing such as is coming from the remoaners, desperate for things to go wrong, but utterly disappointed as we see inflation falling, unemployment down, borrowing down and high street spending up. Yet the left leaning media come sup with, but the experts say that its going to go wrong, Just in Time the former Sainsbury boss tells us that food will go up 5% and the knowledge void Sky reporters tell us that we're in for a hard time.
Why not ask the average man, venture into a sink estate, go onto the factory line or trudge onto a building site and ask real people what they think and want, because the British and I include the Polish and Albanian workers I have see it very differently from the experts. The more this propaganda from the media continues the more resolute the Brexiteers become. If I was to go to war again, I wouldn't be taking any remainers with me, no stomach,no resolve and unable to take an order. Looking forward to Brexit, can't wait for article 50 to be invoked.

Well said that man.

 

[studio150]

What were the inflation figures for October? I await your response.

Hammond pointing at lower figures, another member of the establishment playing it down so that he can beat expectations. Investment in business was falling pre Brexit, it cannot be looked at in isolation to every other aspect of the economy.

There are real people in many other sectors of the economy, but we mainly hear from journalists, consultants, politicians and media presenters. The arguement presented by television is not balanced and includes many forecasts, opinions and predictions, thats not news.

October was 0.9% which is the 2nd highest level for 2 years (after September). It should not be oberlooked that Phillip Hammond referenced higher inflation coming due to the lower value of stetling and higher fuel costs.

If you smooth out the inflation rate this year thete is a clear upward curve as inflation edges up and all indications are that it will continue to rise over the course of the next few years.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

They seem to specialise in being completely and utterly wrong!

OBR admits poor forecasting record
Office for Budget Responsibility predicted economic growth six times stronger than the latest official figures suggest

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...recasting-record-office-budget-responsibility

OBR chair describes “infinitesimal” possibility of accurate economic forecasting

https://www.statslife.org.uk/news/3...-possibility-of-accurate-economic-forecasting


At least they had the sense to admit their forecasts were likely to be even more unreliable than usual because of not knowing how the Brexit negotiations will play out.

Didn't stop the usual suspects taking them as gospel though ....

Clever play by Hammond mind. Suggest serious economic contraction is likely mainly due to Brexit ... so he has an excuse if forecasts are vaguely right covering failed government austerity policy. But also takes the credit if the forecasts prove to be wildly pessimistic/wrong and numerous indicators stubbornly continue to refuse to follow the received expert 'wisdom'. All down to him ...

 

[GT49er]

You lost me at "remoaners" on line one, so tedious, couldn't be arsed to read the rest.

Well, you wouldn't want to read anything that didn't agree with you, would you......................

 

[Baldseagull]

The OBR is unlikely to have got the numbers bang on, but no one can say for sure if their guess is under or over. The terms of Brexit and the time period it will take are unknown.
I would guess their figures are OTT for a situation where we soon have certainty of remaining in the single market. But way under for a situation where we soon have certainty of leaving the single market. Probably close for currently remaining in but with the threat of being out still hanging over us for the next couple of years.
Just my guess about their guess.

 

[Pavilionaire]

There are none so blind as those who cannot see. Read what you read, listen to what you want to hear and believe what you want to believe. Unable to hold your concentration to read two paragraphs, um, you must be really well informed.

If you want to be taken seriously and engage in proper debate then lose the 'remoaner' line because you're just coming across as a third rate Daily Mail sh1t for brains regurgitator.

 

[Baldseagull]

OBR admits poor forecasting record
Office for Budget Responsibility predicted economic growth six times stronger than the latest official figures suggest

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...recasting-record-office-budget-responsibility

OBR chair describes “infinitesimal” possibility of accurate economic forecasting

https://www.statslife.org.uk/news/3...-possibility-of-accurate-economic-forecasting


At least they had the sense to admit their forecasts were likely to be even more unreliable than usual because of not knowing how the Brexit negotiations will play out.

Didn't stop the usual suspects taking them as gospel though ....

Clever play by Hammond mind. Suggest serious economic contraction is likely mainly due to Brexit ... so he has an excuse if forecasts are vaguely right covering failed government austerity policy. But also takes the credit if the forecasts prove to be wildly pessimistic/wrong and numerous indicators stubbornly continue to refuse to follow the received expert 'wisdom'. All down to him ...

Whilst I think we can agree that the OBR is more likely to be wrong than right, I don't think either of us can be confident in them under or over estimating the problem.

 

[Albumen]

Well this is still going well isn't it.
Well done.

 

[5ways]

"After all the months of bitter, brutal arguing over what the cost of Brexit might mean, today we were handed the bill: £58.7billion.

That's the rise in borrowing over the next four years which the Office for Budget Responsibility directly attributes to the decision to leave the European Union, and the uncertainty unleashed since, with the economy 2.4 per cent smaller than expected. All this is based on the hope that Britain leaves the EU in 2019 as planned.

The independent watchdog also said that, while migration would reduce, it didn't believe that May would manage to achieve the Tories' pledge to reduce the number of net new arrivals to below 100,000 a year after Brexit. The expected falls in immigration will still cost the economy around £15 billion."

Source: Times

Brexit: makes you and the yet unborn poorer.

 

[Driver8]

"After all the months of bitter, brutal arguing over what the cost of Brexit might mean, today we were handed the bill: £58.7billion.

That's the rise in borrowing over the next four years which the Office for Budget Responsibility directly attributes to the decision to leave the European Union, and the uncertainty unleashed since, with the economy 2.4 per cent smaller than expected. All this is based on the hope that Britain leaves the EU in 2019 as planned.

The independent watchdog also said that, while migration would reduce, it didn't believe that May would manage to achieve the Tories' pledge to reduce the number of net new arrivals to below 100,000 a year after Brexit. The expected falls in immigration will still cost the economy around £15 billion."

Source: Times

Brexit: makes you and the yet unborn poorer.

It's OK though. We've got our country back.

 

[portslade seagull]

October was 0.9% which is the 2nd highest level for 2 years (after September). It should not be oberlooked that Phillip Hammond referenced higher inflation coming due to the lower value of stetling and higher fuel costs.

If you smooth out the inflation rate this year thete is a clear upward curve as inflation edges up and all indications are that it will continue to rise over the course of the next few years.

Spelling not to great there, but I'll let you off

 

[pastafarian]

Wow, you really have an issue mate. I have never suggested that he advocated an exact replica of Switzerland or Norways arrangement, what I said, and you disputed, was what he means by access to the single market. The 14 seconds in the video are the 14 seconds where he clears up the misunderstanding you are labouring under in the most unequivocal manner, or rather it should have done, but you either lack the balls to be able to admit you got something wrong, or lack the intelligence to understand plain English.

Dan Hannan,in every interview, and every article I have seen, has said he wants and expects continued access to the single market, you keep pointing me to stuff where he makes the same point, (in your latest one it's 45 minutes in) but you keep misunderstanding him.

Please understand, that whilst there are differences between membership of and access to, free movement of people is included in both in every current example bar Liechtenstein, which has a population around the size of a sell out at the Amex. There is no indication from anyone who can be taken seriously on the subject that we would be likely to get anything different.

Thanks for the two choice option, lack the balls or lack the intelligence.
How about we just stick to some facts.

Yes continued trade with EU internal market, or access to it if you prefer that term but not as full members of it.
Its this non membership of it that allows us to not have to bow down to the regulatory waffle of the body that helps regulate it(ECJ), hence being able to return sovereignty to Westminster.
Its this non membership that allows us to seek free trade agreements with other nations that doesn’t involve the EU holding our hand.
Its this non membership that, as Hannan says himself would allow us to “withdraw from the Common Agriculture and Fisheries policies” and allow us to “apply no tariffs either to EU or non EU states”

Lets face it,if you are talking about seeking free trade deals with The EU after we leave and are looking at examples and models from other places such as Canada Switzerland Guernsey and Norway to name but a few this can only mean you are outside being members of The Single Market. If you were still members of the single market there would be no need for these new trade deals in the first place as you would have all the member benefits anyway.

You should probably ditch the lie about free movement, it was a lie when printed on that leaflet that went round the houses then and it’s a lie now.
As our old chum Hannan pointed out the claim “cross the line into straightforward inaccuracy”

The Claim
“Countries that want free access to Europe`s market of 500 million have to accept free movement”
Hannan
“Nonsense. To pluck a random example, The EU just signed Free-Trade agreements with Columbia and Peru.
No one suggested that free movement had to be part of the deal.
Outside the EU, Britain might want to keep a measure of labour mobility with other EU states. But we would recover the ability to decide whom to admit and in what numbers.”

 

[portslade seagull]

By the sound of things our " Booming Economy " is based upon lots of people working their nuts off to stand still and will continue to do so. One of the girls at work finally managed to get a rented place of her own for her and her 5 year old son. It's going to cost her £750 a month on her crap wages, she is already trapped and locked in to having to rent all her life unless she benefits from a Will. This is our future. I take home £1200 a month and am incredibly lucky I have no rent or mortgage to pay otherwise I would be F@@@ed. We have a low wage economy where people are constantly struggling and this budget will change nothing.

Crap wages driven by low skilled immigration and the bankers crash which basically stalled wage rises for years. That has all played into the hands of big business, that's why zero hour contracts are around as well. They should be looked into

 

[pastafarian]

Yes, I suppose you're right. I would be much happier if I could ignore the hopes and horizons of the family members following behind me. And thanks for telling me that their ambitions are nowhere nearly as important as they think they are - I'll pass on the information.

You really should pass the info on to them though, they are in the small minority. It sounds like it would do them some good to realise they are not the centre of some entitled universe..

 

[Soulman]

Moaning everybody.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Again you are putting upon someone else a position they have not indicated or claimed to have. My only point of contention with you on this is that non skilled workers are also capable of making a positive contribution to society, your post seems to indicate that you think otherwise.

I have taken a rather antagonistic stance with you in other posts, as you took a rather patronising one with me, in telling me that when Dan Hannan says "access to the single market" he is not talking about full free access, just the sort of access any non EEA nation has. Then when shown evidence to contradict your position, refused to acknowledge that position as erroneous and decided instead to say that you were not wrong and entitled to differing opinion. You are entitled to differing opinion, but when that opinion is contrary to the facts, you appear to be lacking either intelligence or honesty. My attacks on your intelligence were in the hope that I may provoke some honesty.

Seems your rudeness is based on a misconception in that case. I didn't give any opinion on what Dan Hannan thinks mainly because I'm not that interested. I was interested in what you think and interpreted your post
on the subject as confusing membership and association with the single market. I am really not sure how I became embroiled in your argument about some video but I suppose it was my own fault for offering a view.

 

[pastafarian]

good Moaning everybody.

edited for you

 

[CheeseRolls]

Takes me back to the halcyon days when Gordon Brown "lost £9billion" on a bullion deal and Alasdair Darling was going to send our debt soaring, the pound would plummet and we would have to go cap in hand to the IMF.



Furtunately Brexit and a Tory government has saved us from all of that.

 

[Blue3]

"Its this non membership of it that allows us to not have to bow down to the regulatory waffle of the body that helps regulate it(ECJ), hence being able to return sovereignty to Westminster"

We will need to continue to bow down as you call it after Brexit if we want to continue to trade with the rest of Europe we could come up with loads of new ideas but at the end of the day they will need too bide by what ever regularly rules put in place by the EU and not Westminster plus being on the outside we will have no input or sway

We will be like China is now to the EU who operate in the EU market and must play by our rules of the EU for the end product but can do what you like in achieving this on their home soil, so China might undercut wages or production safety to archive the desired end product