[Politics] Brexit negotiation poll

[nicko31]

If only DD had released his secret squirrel report first, I'm sure there would be so much doom on here


https://www.theguardian.com/politic...l-threat-over-secret-reports-on-brexit-impact

 

[Worried Man Blues]

If the EU were happy then they'd be winning, they want it to look bad so others don't follow us. It was always going to be hard work and that's what it is. A good deal will be both sides saying we have to look at the positives.

 

[Simster]

The EU are culpable in the vote for Brexit in my view. If Cameron had been offered even a figleaf to enable us to in someway limit immigration from Eastern EU countries I have no doubt Remain would have been won. Ask anyone why they voted leave and Immigration would have been at the top, near the top, or the only thing in their list of reasons

I'm a remainer but I'd give this post 10 thumbsup if I could. The EU should bare some of the responsibility for the shambles that is Brexit.

 

[5ways]

The EU are culpable in the vote for Brexit in my view. If Cameron had been offered even a figleaf to enable us to in someway limit immigration from Eastern EU countries I have no doubt Remain would have been won. Ask anyone why they voted leave and Immigration would have been at the top, near the top, or the only thing in their list of reasons

Yep.

 

[Baldseagull]

If only DD had released his secret squirrel report first, I'm sure there would be so much doom on here


https://www.theguardian.com/politic...l-threat-over-secret-reports-on-brexit-impact

To be fair, having it in the public domain that official studies show we would be stuffed without a deal, would strengthen the EU's hand. Having it out there that sunny uplands await, would strengthen ours, so the content is fairly obviously bad, we just dont know how bad.
The problem could be resolved with a closed session of Parliament, so all MP's get the reports, but are not permitted to divulge the content until the process is done one way or another.
We would then have to trust our parliament to vote in the best interests of the country when the time comes. I suspect committed leavers are more nervous about our parliament doing that than remainers. No chance for the Mail et al, to rubbish the reports, claim treacherous authors or some such.

 

[A1X]

The problem is we have a Government negotiating on the terms of their political party, not for the benefit of the nation. Rather than Davis, there should have been an independent individual appointed to lead the negotiations.

Given that no deal is the likeliest outcome I think a second referendum on whether we jump over the cliff or stay as we were needs to take place as the promises of the Leave campaign are now so far removed from the reality of the situation the likelihood is only maybe 10% of those who voted in the referendum actually voted for this scenario.

 

[maltaseagull]

It will be fine.

Agreed, and Albion will finish in the top half of the table.
(My glass is overflowing )

 

[maltaseagull]

The problem is we have a Government negotiating on the terms of their political party, not for the benefit of the nation. Rather than Davis, there should have been an independent individual appointed to lead the negotiations.

Given that no deal is the likeliest outcome I think a second referendum on whether we jump over the cliff or stay as we were needs to take place as the promises of the Leave campaign are now so far removed from the reality of the situation the likelihood is only maybe 10% of those who voted in the referendum actually voted for this scenario.

I very much doubt if the EU would allow things to stay as they are.
I would expect a tough stance to keep the UK in line for daring to challenge them.

 

[beorhthelm]

The problem is we have a Government negotiating on the terms of their political party, not for the benefit of the nation.

thats nonsense. you may have noticed that the political parties do not have a single view. the negotiations are going according to the objectives of leave campaign, constrained to issues EU are willing to discuss at this time i.e. Ireland, EU Citizens rights, the exit bill, a few other esoteric areas not even reported. as we haven't got to the negotiations on the future, and with the ever present option to extend negotiations indefinatly (just needs agreement), there is no certainty of a cliff edge scenario.

(and thats before you get into the scenario that we remain a part of the EEA - apparently we have not given notice on that agreement, so it is still in force and would have to be a legal bun fight to resolve if we get to June 2019 and EU talks are unresolved.)

 

[WATFORD zero]

Just noticed that I have got thumbs down from [MENTION=17456]The_Viper[/MENTION] and [MENTION=30242]spence[/MENTION]. I do apologise as I didn't realise that setting up a poll could be so upsetting

Bloody generation snowflake

 

[larus]

That has to be the best possible definition of cutting your nose off to spite your face. Why would you want to expose our businesses to tariffs and duties when there's a chance to get a deal that gives us at least some of the advantages of the single market and customs union just to annoy the EU? We caused this mess, they didn't.

The WTO tariffsm aren't that bad - i think i read somewhere it averages out about 2-3%. Yes, some products attract more.

And all this crap about passporting rights for trading in Euros. If they have aspirations for the Euro to be a reserve currency, it MUST be freely traded. If they ban this activity from the City, the Euro can't become a reserve currency as the the US$.

 

[larus]

In its twice-yearly World Economic Outlook, the IMF sharply reduced its UK long-term growth outlook, from an estimated annual growth rate of 1.9 per cent to 1.7 per cent. The forecasts show the UK trailing Greece over the next five years. The IMF is now predicting 11.5 per cent growth in Greece during the period, compared with 10.3 per cent in Britain.

The fund also reduced the UK's growth forecast for this year, by 0.3 percentage points, to 1.7 per cent, while raising the equivalent forecasts for Germany, France and Italy. But in 2018, the IMF expects the UK to grow faster than Italy and France. The forecast is in line with an initial assessment first published in July. - FT

I'd actually like to know what percentage of the forecasts the IMF get right. How many revisions UPWARDS have the IMF had to make regarding the UK since the the Brexit vote. So, with respect, I'll take their forecasts and ignore as they will be wrong.

This is the same IMF that has constantly been forecasting improvements in Greece but it keeps contracting.

Yeah, IMF

 

[Mackenzie]

As far as I can make out, after 7 months of talks we’ve found no common ground and agreed nothing. I’m not sure whether it’s down to those ***** from Brussels being uncooperative or the ***** in charge of our country not having the slightest clue of what they want or what they’re doing.

Still if it means going back to feet and inches, being able to buy a quarter of sherbet pips and less foreigners stealing our jobs then I’m all for it.

 

[5ways]

I'd actually like to know what percentage of the forecasts the IMF get right. How many revisions UPWARDS have the IMF had to make regarding the UK since the the Brexit vote. So, with respect, I'll take their forecasts and ignore as they will be wrong.

This is the same IMF that has constantly been forecasting improvements in Greece but it keeps contracting.

Yeah, IMF

Yeah, experts - we're sick of them right? Also Phil Hammond's numbers and statistics are deeply unpatriotic. Time for reeducation through labour on Kent fruit farms.

 

[happypig]

Sticking to the issue in hand....

The problem seems to me to be that Barnier wants to talk about people before trade and Davis want to sort out trade before people.
It could, perhaps, move forward if they were to agree that EU nationals currently in education, employment or retired in the UK can stay indefinitely in return for the same rights being given to UK nationals in the EU.

Given that Brexit is a long term thing, then there should have been a cross-party negotiating team rather that giving to Davis, who is not regarded as an intellectual heavyweight even in the Tory Party.

Personally I think both sides are playing a game of brinkmanship and waiting for the other side to blink.

 

[The_Viper]

Just noticed that I have got thumbs down from [MENTION=17456]The_Viper[/MENTION] and [MENTION=30242]spence[/MENTION]. I do apologise as I didn't realise that setting up a poll could be so upsetting

Bloody generation snowflake

Alright calm down mate. Don't take it so personal. Bloody generation snowflake

 

[beorhthelm]

I'd actually like to know what percentage of the forecasts the IMF get right.

growth forecast figures are notoriously incorrect (even recent history are subject to revisions). treat them, for any country, as a target with the current information. they tend to underestimate falling growth and over estimate increasing growth. they often relying on country's economic reporting which can be skewed. only good growth numbers are the "fan diagrams" because a least they acknowledge its the middle of a range of estimates.

 

[Brighton Mod]

You’re correct. I asked a number of Leavers for their reasons, and besides two people that were relatively well read, for most it came down to immigration. Their reasoning ranged from slight racism to flat out “if we stay, you’ll probably end up having to marry one of those Muslim terrorists Lad”. But then there was a lot of ignorance on both sides.

To quote Sir Michael Caine, 'i'd rather be a poor master than a rich servant'. Not sure how many people you questioned but for me it was about control and direction. WE have little control over many aspects of our lives, decided for us by unelected, faceless beauracrats in Brussels, we never have the opportunity to challenge these edicts and for our politicians to be so for the EU demonstrates that they are quite happy with the light load they are expected to carry. But more importantly and never even metioned in debate is where does the EU see itself going and how much control do they want to grab, as for Barnier, Verhofstadt, Junckers et al, its a personal crusade.

if we were invited to join now how would the country vote:

Greece - Bankrupt, EU bail ouuts used to pay off desperate German and French Banks
Spain - 25% unemployment, a succession crisis
Italy - In much financila trouble even after the EU put a puppet in to govern the country
Germany - Having sucked the industry of Europe dry as it brings back manufacturing plants from abroard and desperately needs immigrant labour to man its factories
Ireland - Losing jobs as companies flee the illegal tax breaks they have been given and now bullied by the EU to pay swingeing fines, oh and a landlocked country to the UK, are we to see a Berling airlift operation to keep the country afloat
Poland - Unhappy at its treament and the abuse of its workers by Germany, a bit of history there
France - as politically unstable as any other country in the EU run by a president who thinks he's Tom Cruise

If we get a no deal we are told no flights will be able to transfer between UK and Europe, that will help the failing European Airlines. My reasons for voting for Brexit were very clear, strange that the pundits, journalists and politicians never concentrat on these points.

 

[FatSuperman]

.It's dragging on because we have "remainers politicians" and remoaners doing everything they can to delay things and this naturally means that a certain bunch in Brussels are laughing at us from all angles.

In my opinion that is not at all why it's dragging on. I suspect it's because our team are not experts in, well, anything. They are not professionals, they're politicians. I sincerely hope that the reality behind the doors is that it's chugging along, and at the end all parties will come out unhappy - that's the sign of a fair deal.

I don't really understand why so many have a huge issue with being in Europe. The argument always seems to be emotional. I sincerely hope that we do prosper once we leave, however I've got a feeling it'll be incredibly tough for the first five to ten years. And after we recover, who's to say whether we'd be in a better position had we stayed or not?

 

[FatSuperman]

...for me it was about control and direction. WE have little control over many aspects of our lives, decided for us by unelected, faceless beauracrats in Brussels,
My reasons for voting for Brexit were very clear, strange that the pundits, journalists and politicians never concentrat on these points.

I mean absolutely no disrespect here, but your reason mention here is not very clear. Can you expand upon the aspects of our lives we have no control over?