Brentford's statistical strategy- recipe for success or will plans go up in smoke?

[chaileyjem]

If you choose to think Burke's signings last season were on a par with the Poyet chosen players then good luck to you. You are the one who keeps telling us it was the most expensively assembled squad ever. Where DO you think it all went wrong?

A far more realistic appraisal (guess) IMO

It's too simplistic to say all the recruitment whilst Burke headed up that team was bobbins, or that the managers had no say at all.
(The club insist otherwise)
Clearly the squad has declined and the recruitment team played a part in that. Which is presumably why Burke was sacked.
Strikers not scoring, and promising players like Holla, McCourt and Gardner not delivering and losing managers every summer can't have helped either. But the narrative that the rotter Burke staged a coup in summer 12/13 , everything since Gus left has been a disaster and the recruitment team deliberately started sabotaging the team with endless Leroy Litas with the managers sitting on their hands helpless is not my view of why the club ended up 20th in the league last season. Or that every decent player was a "Gus signing". "If the above then "he" signed some right old differs too didn't he ?

 

[8ace]

Soccer Analytics: Matthew Benham's Brentford, Midtjylland success - Planet Futbol - SI.com

 

[8ace]

Midtjylland knocked Scumhampton out

 

[Icy Gull]

Early days but they appear to have gone backwards at pace..

 

[Ernest]

Early days but they appear to have gone backwards at pace..

I think the chairman misunderestimated how good a manager Warburton was , he thought it was all stats

 

[LamieRobertson]

I think the chairman underestimated how good a manager Warburton was , he thought it was all stats

Bit like SW's chairman sacking Stuart Gray

 

[Tony Towner's Fridge]

You only have to see what Warburton has done at Glasgow Rangers to see that Brentford most certainly looked a very Gift Horse in the mouth. I had a suspicion and had £5 on Brentford for relegation at 18s on Betfair at the beginning of the season. A wee bet but one that now looks not quite so silly.

TNBA

TTF

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Fell into the same trap as us and put too much faith in the player recruitment database.

Although losing the £2 million defender on day 1 was unfortunate.

Relegation battle for Brentford this year.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Seems the manager has carried the can.

At least they didn't stick with him until Christmas.

Can't see their season improving though...

 

[MattBackHome]

 

[LamieRobertson]

Seems the manager has carried the can.

At least they didn't stick with him until Christmas.

Can't see their season improving though...

Wonder what Warburtons thoughts on the matter are.

 

[Not Andy Naylor]

I thought the point of the moneyball, statistics based approach was to identify those players who represented value for money, i.e. those where the stats showed a player performing above the median for the league they were in and undervalued...not purely signing players on the basis of those stats...

This is a common misconception. What Moneyball was about was the Oakland Athletics identifying an undervalued stat (on-base percentage) and then signing players who were cheap but whose on-base percentage was high. Other teams gave their big free-agent bucks to strikeout pitchers or power hitters while often ignoring the less sexy (but arguably more significant) OBP.

The difficulty in applying moneyball theory to football is that there isn't a similar stat in football. In baseball, if your players always get on base, you will win (because they'll never be out and the team will keep scoring runs). But if, say, your pass completion rate in football is 100 percent, that could be because you always play safe passes that never hurt the opposition. If your shooting accuracy is 100 percent, it doesn't mean the shots will beat the goalkeeper, and it doesn't say how many shots you will have in a match. Football isn't like baseball - it's too fluid, and a player's individual stats depend on what other members of the team are doing.

 

[Lady Whistledown]

This is a common misconception. What Moneyball was about was the Oakland Athletics identifying an undervalued stat (on-base percentage) and then signing players who were cheap but whose on-base percentage was high. Other teams gave their big free-agent bucks to strikeout pitchers or power hitters while often ignoring the less sexy (but arguably more significant) OBP.

The difficulty in applying moneyball theory to football is that there isn't a similar stat in football. In baseball, if your players always get on base, you will win (because they'll never be out and the team will keep scoring runs). But if, say, your pass completion rate in football is 100 percent, that could be because you always play safe passes that never hurt the opposition. If your shooting accuracy is 100 percent, it doesn't mean the shots will beat the goalkeeper, and it doesn't say how many shots you will have in a match. Football isn't like baseball - it's too fluid, and a player's individual stats depend on what other members of the team are doing.

Wise words.

Still, I'm happy for a team at our level to have a punt on it, as it's always good to identify teams who are very likely to finish below us (yep, we've made a great start, but I've not quite shaken off the typical Albion "it'll all go wrong" mentality yet, not by a long way).

 

[Nigella's Cream Pie]

Just been announced Dijkhuizen has gone!

Shame for him, he should have been given allowances for some of their best players leaving the club and others out with long term injuries.

 

[Gwylan]

Just been announced Dijkhuizen has gone!

Shame for him, he should have been given allowances for some of their best players leaving the club and others out with long term injuries.

Even without those factors, nine games is nowhere near enough time to judge a manager - ludicrous decision

 

[Ernest]

This is a common misconception. What Moneyball was about was the Oakland Athletics identifying an undervalued stat (on-base percentage) and then signing players who were cheap but whose on-base percentage was high. Other teams gave their big free-agent bucks to strikeout pitchers or power hitters while often ignoring the less sexy (but arguably more significant) OBP.

The difficulty in applying moneyball theory to football is that there isn't a similar stat in football. In baseball, if your players always get on base, you will win (because they'll never be out and the team will keep scoring runs). But if, say, your pass completion rate in football is 100 percent, that could be because you always play safe passes that never hurt the opposition. If your shooting accuracy is 100 percent, it doesn't mean the shots will beat the goalkeeper, and it doesn't say how many shots you will have in a match. Football isn't like baseball - it's too fluid, and a player's individual stats depend on what other members of the team are doing.

Tony Cottee was talking about it on SKY, said he didn't run a yard yet scored 2 goals against someone who ran 15 miles and got in the box a lot yet didn't do a thing would come out top

 

[bobbysmith01]

Rachel Riley is favourite to take over as new boss apparently?

 

[Lifelong Supporter]

Rachel Riley is favourite to take over as new boss apparently?

Should up their scoring rate.

 

[Icy Gull]

Wonder what Warburtons thoughts on the matter are.

The same as they were when he decided, half way though last season, that this shit wasn't for him?

He might allow himself a wry smile I suppose,

 

[Ernest]

Lee Carsley in charge till the end of the season, shouldn't have sacked Warburton