[Albion] "Brave", "a risk" and "I can see it going horribly wrong"...

[Bwian]

As you say - this is also why I was slowly losing desire to go to games towards the end of the season just gone - because you felt like you did know what was going to happen, more or less.

I did stop going for a while. I took a break after the Palace away game, went on holiday late March until mid April and returned for the Newcastle game. Had tickets for Chelsea and Spurs and FA Cup Semi Final but didn't bother. I have ADHD and going to The Albion was beginning to take its toll and football shouldn't do that. First time in 60+ years that I stayed away.

Sacking Hughton and employing Potter is not a risk as far as I'm concerned.

I am now looking forward to next season with renewed enthusiasm.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

...some of the verdicts on Potter's appointment on 5Live's Monday Night Club tonight.

Listen from 1:39:00 >>> https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0005219

Brave, yes. A risk, yes. Can it go horribly wrong, yes. But, the worst which can go wrong is we will get related....which really isn’t a big deal as far as I’m concerned. I’d much rather we install a Potter than employ the usual allegedly proven suspects who ride the managerial merry-go-round at the foot of the table. The current reality for us is either a Hughes type or taking a punt on potential. I’m really happy with this Potter fella.

 

[Gritt23]

Any suggestions as to who would have been:-

Humble.
Safe
Plain sailing

From the medias's perspective that would have been anyone on the usual manager merry-go-round. So, Hughes, or Alladyce, or Redknapp. #facepalm

 

[Mtoto]

It is a judgement call of course. The problem comes with thinking that keeping CH is less of a risk because he kept us up. Well, yes he did but only by 2 points. Brighton achieved fewer points than preceding season and were comfortably in relegation position for H2 of the season. Staying up was achieved only by virtue of three fortunate successive 1-0s early in season. Poor runs of form are to be expected but 3 wins from 23 is more than that: something is structurally wrong.

Put it like this: had Albion won 3 from 23 from the beginning of the season and lay 19th in table would you still think it was more risky to change manager? The structural problem is being disguised by some fortunate results in early season and Crystal Palace doing decent thing by us at Cardiff.

Brighton were 19th in PL for goals excluding penalties; 20th for shooting accuracy; 20th for shots on target; 20th for passes in opposition box; 20th for touches in opposition box (source: Times article today); stats that doubtless TB was looking at. It simply would not be sustainable to stay up for another season with that combination, let alone kick on towards mid table security. Which is why it is less risky to appoint Potter; it might go badly wrong but IMO less likely to go badly with Potter.

The stats are hardly the greatest surprise given Hughton's overall approach, which was obviously pragmatic and designed for survival, but I suspect there were some impressive defensive metrics there too which redressed the balance and are the reason we got over the line. As for the three 1-0s, Newcastle away was cheeky but chance is involved in every match and in a sport in which it is very difficult to score, there is always a chance of getting three points if the defence does its job and keeps a clean sheet - which, in these matches, it did.

"Comfortably in relegation position"? Our relegation odds ranged between 5-1 and 50-1 after Christmas until the few days after the Cardiff game, and never below 33-1 to go down after beating Palace away. And yes, we dropped 4 points on the previous season after spending plenty of cash, but Huddersfield, who got 3 points less than us first time around, spent nothing and ended up 21 points behind 2017-18. For me, that's a sign of what's necessary in the PL just to stand still (or almost stand still). Survive is the first priority, and it ended up being the only one.

Hughton knows the division, knows the players and has shown in the last two seasons that he knows how to hit an end-of-season target. Potter may prove to be a very fine manager, but the idea that he is *less* of a risk than Hughton when it comes to survival seems more to do with fans not liking the way Hughton he went about it. More attacking football, almost by definition, carries greater risks as well as greater *potential* rewards.

 

[phoenix]

Yes. I commented on this earlier.

They can do one.

Well said Harry f@ck*** emm all.

 

[London Irish]

So as no one knows what's going to happen why the negativity?

'The media' could slag off every club outside the top 6, and really ought to be sticking the boot into 3 of those teams as well.
Yet here's lil old Brighton making a big statement about their future while agreeing with 'the media' the recent past wasn't good enough and are seemingly still getting shat on.

I guess if Mr Bloom had gone for Big Sam everything would be alright in their world.

Because of our financials, ie. wages and transfer budget. Rational stuff, not "negativity". I think people might be running away with the idea how much managerial wisdom can defy gravity on those metrics and also forgetting how well Hughton did in keeping our head above the water, which will be far from easy for any manager to replicate

 

[Mtoto]

Yep.

I still think we have more chance of finishing 10th in the PL in 2 seasons’ time under Potter than we would have done under Hughton. But also a greater chance of finishing 10th in the Championship.

The very definition of “more risk”.

Not a good thing, not a bad thing - just a thing.

Two seasons is getting into the realm of conditional probabilities and that's when my head starts to hurt. But yes, that's probably a fair assessment, and something for the folk who insist that we were "certain/almost certain" to get relegated under Hughton to consider. As for the incremental gain of finishing 10th rather than 17th in the PL, versus the immense, potentially start-all-over-again setback of getting relegated, let's hope it remains hypothetical.

 

[London Irish]

As you say - this is also why I was slowly losing desire to go to games towards the end of the season just gone - because you felt like you did know what was going to happen, more or less.

With that squad of players, totally agree. Amazing declines due to age, injuries, form and just the murderous intensity of the Prem game after game.

Felt totally the same way as you

 

[chaileyjem]

From the medias's perspective that would have been anyone on the usual manager merry-go-round. So, Hughes, or Alladyce, or Redknapp. #facepalm

Actually the "media" (football writers, broadcasters) are conversely, as far as i can tell, very keen on Potter because its self evidently a good story. A new young, british manager (there's not many of them in the premier league for starters) with a fascinating backstory (Swedish fourth division !!) , and some quirky methods (ballet !) and everywhere you look there's something to write about - a degree in emotional intelligence ! he's multi-lingual, the Ghana Womens team !, the Europa League!. If Albion have a Burnley/Wolves breakout season next year - there will be profiles galore and the inevitable "next England manager speculation" will be up and running.
If...

 

[warmleyseagull]

The stats are hardly the greatest surprise given Hughton's overall approach, which was obviously pragmatic and designed for survival, but I suspect there were some impressive defensive metrics there too which redressed the balance and are the reason we got over the line. As for the three 1-0s, Newcastle away was cheeky but chance is involved in every match and in a sport in which it is very difficult to score, there is always a chance of getting three points if the defence does its job and keeps a clean sheet - which, in these matches, it did.

"Comfortably in relegation position"? Our relegation odds ranged between 5-1 and 50-1 after Christmas until the few days after the Cardiff game, and never below 33-1 to go down after beating Palace away. And yes, we dropped 4 points on the previous season after spending plenty of cash, but Huddersfield, who got 3 points less than us first time around, spent nothing and ended up 21 points behind 2017-18. For me, that's a sign of what's necessary in the PL just to stand still (or almost stand still). Survive is the first priority, and it ended up being the only one.

Hughton knows the division, knows the players and has shown in the last two seasons that he knows how to hit an end-of-season target. Potter may prove to be a very fine manager, but the idea that he is *less* of a risk than Hughton when it comes to survival seems more to do with fans not liking the way Hughton he went about it. More attacking football, almost by definition, carries greater risks as well as greater *potential* rewards.

Defensive stats: yes they are better - see https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/premier-league/best-defence.html - and, yes, they did keep us up but still only 14th in terms of goals conceded per game (and very much second half of the season weighted) and only Huddersfield and Fulham kept fewer clean sheets. Far from earth shattering and no way near enough to counteract the dreadful offensive stats;

comfortably in relegation position in SECOND HALF OF THE SEASON is what I said. The odds are irrelevant as they are based on building up enough points in H1 season;

survival is only priority: that's your view but its not mine especially when it is obviously failing as it did after Xmas.

I think you are missing the point. Based on the form and the stats of the second half of the season, Albion would be relegated by a long way. I think TB saw that and took action. Yes, next season could all be different but somehow I doubt it with CH in charge. He just didn't believe in his offensive players other then Murray. Now time might tell; Potter tries to encourage them to worry less about defending and they are still crap and we get stuffed, but IMO there is a chance that things will turn out OK whereas it would have been death by 1,000 cuts with CH. Excruciating performances, the odd 0-0 and 1-0 with plenty of Burnleys and Cardiffs in between. It just doesn't seem the way forward.

 

[Stat Brother]

Because of our financials, ie. wages and transfer budget. Rational stuff, not "negativity". I think people might be running away with the idea how much managerial wisdom can defy gravity on those metrics and also forgetting how well Hughton did in keeping our head above the water, which will be far from easy for any manager to replicate

But it would seem ok to assume the players that failed under Hughton will also fail under a new manager who seemingly is more in line with their previous styles of play.

Nobody is looking at the top 6.
Ill hazard a guess nobody is expecting top 10.

But you seem to be suggesting there is a huge gulf between us and the likes of Newcastle, Burnley, Souhampton, palace et al.

There isnt, its a handful of points, points that were available to CH, this season, but he chose not to attack them.

 

[neilbard]

But it would seem ok to assume the players that failed under Hughton will also fail under a new manager who seemingly is more in line with their previous styles of play.

Nobody is looking at the top 6.
Ill hazard a guess nobody is expecting top 10.

But you seem to be suggesting there is a huge gulf between us and the likes of Newcastle, Burnley, Souhampton, palace et al.

There isnt, its a handful of points, points that were available to CH, this season, but he chose not to attack them.

They way some of the **** buzzards are carrying on, I'm fully expecting a Champions League spot. #disappointed

 

[Greg Bobkin]

I hate pundit-bashing but I listen to the Monday Night podcast on the drive in this morning.

Chris Sutton basically claimed Potter had done average at Swansea "with a team that came down". So suggesting it was prem players.

THANKFULLY the ever sensible Rory Smith (I believe of the NY Times) actually informed Sutton that Swansea basically played their youth team last season.

Chris Sutton is a proper bell. Thank GOODNESS he's on R5L not Talkshite, as the risk of catching a part of a show with him and Alan Brazil or Jim White would be too much to bear.

 

[London Irish]

But it would seem ok to assume the players that failed under Hughton will also fail under a new manager who seemingly is more in line with their previous styles of play.

Nobody is looking at the top 6.
Ill hazard a guess nobody is expecting top 10.

But you seem to be suggesting there is a huge gulf between us and the likes of Newcastle, Burnley, Souhampton, palace et al.

There isnt, its a handful of points, points that were available to CH, this season, but he chose not to attack them.

"You seem to be saying" huh. How about sticking to what I'm actually saying rather than straw man fallacies. There isn't a huge gulf between those clubs and us, but they each can build on strong finishes to their seasons, having found winning formulas. We are in a totally different situation.

New managers can't make players that lack pace any quicker, they can't raise players with chronic injuries from the dead, they can't turn back time and make ageing players regain the spring of youth, they generally can't make players who have been found out in the intensity of the Premiership classier players. Our problems are very specific to us, we weren't suffering an underperformance of potential, what happened to us was the realisation of our limited potential. All depends on a thorough squad rebuild.

 

[Stat Brother]

"You seem to be saying" huh. How about sticking to what I'm actually saying rather than straw man fallacies. There isn't a huge gulf between those clubs and us, but they each can build on strong finishes to their seasons, having found winning formulas. We are in a totally different situation.

New managers can't make players that lack pace any quicker, they can't raise players with chronic injuries from the dead, they can't turn back time and make ageing players regain the spring of youth, they generally can't make players who have been found out in the intensity of the Premiership classier players. Our problems are very specific to us, we weren't suffering an underperformance of potential, what happened to us was the realisation of our limited potential. All depends on a thorough squad rebuild.

Well at least we only have to wait 3+ months to find out who is right.

 

[bluenitsuj]

Who cares. Do people really take these comments seriously.

 

[Medwayseagull]

Who are you marrying and why isn't it a big deal ?

 

[Weststander]

Who cares. Do people really take these comments seriously.

I ignore them all, including Merson’s pre-season predictions.

 

[London Irish]

Well at least we only have to wait 3+ months to find out who is right.

Well, how many people were questioning Hughton around the turn of the New Year, never mind in August? Where you? It was a very small minority on here.

We will get significant clues on Potter's fate when we see how much the board are prepared to back him over the summer with money, then we can make some kind of informed guess about that. But we won't actually "find out" until the best part of a year, very probably.

 

[Stat Brother]

Well, how many people were questioning Hughton around the turn of the New Year, never mind in August? Where you? It was a very small minority on here.

We will get significant clues on Potter's fate when we see how much the board are prepared to back him over the summer with money, then we can make some kind of informed guess about that. But we won't actually "find out" until the best part of a year, very probably.

Oh man I certainly wasn't.
Throughout all the 1-0's that could so easily have been hammerings I was clapping like a walrus at sardine o'clock while blowing raspberries into the faces of those who have since been proven correct, by saying 'hang on a minute'.

If IF Potter starts with Ali, Big Jurg and Andone and it isn't a clusterf**k we'll have a pretty good idea where the blame for last season lies.

For the record I'd be amazed if all 3 'make it'.
But I do expect 1 1/2 of them to put on a show.

I have no idea who's going to completely fail and who might make a 'C' grade, but I do feel at least 1 will confound all their critics, of which there will be many.