Boris - clue to exit strategy?

[Goldstone1976]

3:20


In Boris' victory speech yesterday, he said, after Cameron had said he'd leave it to the new PM to invoke Article 50, "....and, as the Prime Minister has rightly said, there is no need to invoke Article 50."

Hmmm. Is this just a slip of the tongue, and he forgot to add "now" or "immediately", or is it more significant; an indication that Boris' strategy would be to leave by the equivalent of suicide by police, ie to repeal ECA 1972, and then start repealing laws that have their origin in the EU, provoking the EU again and again until, eventually, they kick us out?

This latter strategy would take a lot longer than 2 years, which would give time for radical reform to be considered and implemented by the other members, perhaps encouraged to do so by other member states' electorates also voting to exit.

Maybe, just maybe, Boris is playing the long game, thinking that he can tell our electorate he's effecting the vote to leave in a way that is more beneficial to us (he'd have to say why not invoking Article 50 was better, but that's not impossible to craft some spin around), while applying pressure for radical reform which, if achieved, he can then use to not exit, possibly being endorsed by either calling a GE or by having a second referendum.

Or maybe, he just forgot to say "...immediately"

 

[Mr deez]

He's having second thoughts as he realises chasing his personal ambition had caused a disaster he is incapable of managing.

 

[Bold Seagull]

I got the sense yesterday Boris was completely shocked at winning. Deep down he is pro-EU, always has been, but this was a career decision. He's now the architect of something he doesn't fully believe in!

 

[Me and my Monkey]

3:20


In Boris' victory speech yesterday, he said, after Cameron had said he'd leave it to the new PM invoke Article 50, "....and, as the Prime Minister has rightly said, there is no need to invoke Article 50."

Hmmm. Is this just a slip of the tongue, and he forgot to add "now" or "immediately", or is it more significant; an indication that Boris' strategy would be to leave by the equivalent of suicide by police, ie to repeal ECA 1972, and then start repealing laws that have their origin in the EU, provoking the EU again and again until, eventually, they kick us out.

This latter strategy would take a lot longer than 2 years, which would give time for radical reform to be considered and implemented by the other members, perhaps encouraged to do so by other member states' electorates also voting to exit.

Maybe, just maybe, Boris is playing the long game, thinking that he can tell our electorate he's effecting the vote to leave in a way that is more beneficial to us (he'd have to say why not invoking Article 50 was better, but that's not impossible to craft some spin around), while applying pressure for radical reform which, if achieved, he can then use to not exit, possibly being endorsed by either calling a GE or by having a second referendum.

Or maybe, he just forgot to say "...immediately"

Boris, is that you?

 

[ManOfSussex]

Maybe Boris Johnson just doesn't have a clue what he's doing?

 

[sir albion]

Maybe Boris Johnson just doesn't have a clue what he's doing?

Rather like Cameron then....

 

[Goldstone1976]

Boris, is that you?

Ha! Hardly!

I just like listening really closely to what people say. I've found that sometimes you get to the truth of what they mean by listening to what they actually say, rather than what is thought they said. Of course, sometimes it really is a slip of the tongue. In which case I would say, in this case - "shame on you, Boris. This was your victory speech, after the single most important vote the UK. electorate will take for at least a generation. The least you could do was to avoid ambiguity".

 

[yxee]

Invoking parliamentary sovereignty would certainly be an "all guns blazing" way of leaving. Probably not advisable. But it is probably worth reminding everyone of that in case anyone tries to make the Article 50 process harder than it needs to be...

I suppose that was Boris's intention.

 

[KZNSeagull]

I think this will be a catalyst for major change in the EU - they cannot have a major member of the EU just leaving. Boris or whoever should negotiate the divorce settlement with a view to actually staying in to keep access to the trade agreements, but have a say in how they are implemented with regards to list/points systems for immigration. Then have another referendum. So out as in Norway, but not quite as out as Norway.

 

[GoldWithFalmer]

If we don't invoke article 50 we are in the EU?

 

[de la zouch]

It wasnt shock, he is a consummate politician. Now he has a run at the big job he desires he was simply switching into a more statesman like persona.

 

[Postman Pat]

If we don't invoke article 50 we are in the EU?

That is the official route, but Greenland never did when they left.

 

[beorhthelm]

I got the sense yesterday Boris was completely shocked at winning. Deep down he is pro-EU, always has been,

not sure about this. as i understand it he has always been sceptical about the EU project, while being pro-european.

back to the original point, i think an awful lot of speculation over what was a mis-wording. invoking Article 50 is the method by which the EU begins *their* process to neogotiate the exit of a member. we wouldnt do it any other way as it wouldnt be in our interest to do so. the point is that it will take time to get that far, it was highlighted that we need an act of parliament to do this, so parliament has to recognise the result of the referendum (its not legally binding). theres a long to to go on this journey.

That is the official route, but Greenland never did when they left.

it didnt exist then, it was introduced in Lisbon treaty

 

[Hampster Gull]

That is the official route, but Greenland never did when they left.

It didnt exist then, i think introduced 2007

 

[Seagull58]

That is the official route, but Greenland never did when they left.

Greenland was not a member of the EU in their own right. They were part of Denmark and negotiated their exit when Denmark gave them a degree of autonomy within the Danish political system. It was not possible for them to invoke article 50.

Edit: if it had existed then, which it didn't!

 

[jonny.rainbow]

Boris will be the Heseltine of this leadership race.

It must be a Henley thing.

 

[warmleyseagull]

Agree with pretty much everything so far. Boris thought he would lose but would, by virtue of being contrarian in this referendum, would feel he scored enough Brownie points with PCP and the wider party so that would be on front foot to be the alternative to Osborne in a year or two's time. In a sense, his gamble has failed as much as Cameron's.

His statement was contrite, even emphasising the need to reflect the 48% of us that voted against him. The issue is that he is not a man of detail, so the minutiae of EU negotiation and the procrastination that will inevitably follow will do his head in. Yes, he will have a negotiating team, but at end of day, as Cameron found in February, you have to do some of this yourself.

I don't think he thought he was signing up to that and suspect he is worried: a) because he knows he will be crap at it; b) he doesn't have any kind of road map of how to get to a result; c) he is a closet European - certainly not seriously anti immigration; d) he has no idea of how to deal with Scotland - to my knowledge he has never mentioned the subject; e) he knows he will have a hell of a job keeping his constituency of 65+ Clacton man and woman onside while all this is going on.

We now enter an extended period of domestic uncertainty. There is a political vacuum - Labour are not a credible opposition currently, Lib Dems light years from exerting influence, and Conservatives will have a leader who people didn't vote for in charge of a divided party. EU was very low on people's priorities of issues 13 months ago, now we shall have paralysis because the subject will dominate. What for, one asks?

 

[Napier's Knee]

I assume Article 50 can only be invoked by the state that wants to leave?

 

[LamieRobertson]

Agree with pretty much everything so far. Boris thought he would lose but would, by virtue of being contrarian in this referendum, would feel he scored enough Brownie points with PCP and the wider party so that would be on front foot to be the alternative to Osborne in a year or two's time. In a sense, his gamble has failed as much as Cameron's.

His statement was contrite, even emphasising the need to reflect the 48% of us that voted against him. The issue is that he is not a man of detail, so the minutiae of EU negotiation and the procrastination that will inevitably follow will do his head in. Yes, he will have a negotiating team, but at end of day, as Cameron found in February, you have to do some of this yourself.

I don't think he thought he was signing up to that and suspect he is worried: a) because he knows he will be crap at it; b) he doesn't have any kind of road map of how to get to a result; c) he is a closet European - certainly not seriously anti immigration; d) he has no idea of how to deal with Scotland - to my knowledge he has never mentioned the subject; e) he knows he will have a hell of a job keeping his constituency of 65+ Clacton man and woman onside while all this is going on.

We now enter an extended period of domestic uncertainty. There is a political vacuum - Labour are not a credible opposition currently, Lib Dems light years from exerting influence, and Conservatives will have a leader who people didn't vote for in charge of a divided party. EU was very low on people's priorities of issues 13 months ago, now we shall have paralysis because the subject will dominate. What for, one asks?

Interesting comments .... This political vacuum is going to be fascinating as much so as the voting when broken down into age

 

[Lord Bracknell]

Using a complex and uncertain parliamentary strategy to walk away from the EU without invoking Article 50 procedures won't work, for the simple reason that it won't have the support of the majority of MPs.

The only parliamentary consensus that Boris will get to back him is support for seeing through the outcome of the referendum. That will only be easily achieved by doing the straightforward thing - Article 50.