Bookies' odds on auto's vs play-offs

[KT17]

Typical odds now:

To be promoted: -

Burnley 1.04
Boro 1.4
BHA 1.5


Odds now on who will win the play-offs (and you can understand why we, Boro and Burnley are outsiders)...

Hull 3.0
Derby 4.0
Weds 4.5
BHA 6.0
Boro 7.0
Burnley 41.0

I would love to know what the bookies odds would be for us to win the play-offs if - heaven forfend - we don't achieve an automatic berth....

Any bookies out there care to guess? 2.0?

 

[BensGrandad]

Typical odds now:

To be promoted: -

Burnley 1.04
Boro 1.4
BHA 1.5


Odds now on who will win the play-offs (and you can understand why we, Boro and Burnley are outsiders)...

Hull 3.0
Derby 4.0
Weds 4.5
BHA 6.0
Boro 7.0
Burnley 41.0

I would love to know what the bookies odds would be for us to win the play-offs if - heaven forfend - we don't achieve an automatic berth....

Any bookies out there care to guess? 2.0?

Not being a gambling man I understand that we are favourite at 5 -1 on with Boro at 4-1 on but in old fashioned music what is Burnleys price?

 

[The Andy Naylor Fan Club]

Not being a gambling man I understand that we are favourite at 5 -1 on with Boro at 4-1 on but in old fashioned music what is Burnleys price?

1/25

 

[clippedgull]

To be promoted: Bet 365

Boro 2/5
Burnley 1/33
Brighton 8/15
Hull 12/5
Derby 5/2
Sheff Wed 7/2

 

[Bozza]

Will we flip-flop with Boro if we beat Derby? [MENTION=588]8ace[/MENTION]?

 

[Mtoto]

Typical odds now:

To be promoted: -

Burnley 1.04
Boro 1.4
BHA 1.5


Odds now on who will win the play-offs (and you can understand why we, Boro and Burnley are outsiders)...

Hull 3.0
Derby 4.0
Weds 4.5
BHA 6.0
Boro 7.0
Burnley 41.0

I would love to know what the bookies odds would be for us to win the play-offs if - heaven forfend - we don't achieve an automatic berth....

Any bookies out there care to guess? 2.0?

I'm not a bookie, but if we do miss out on the autos, I'd guess we'd be around 13-8 - or 2.63 in new money.

 

[KT17]

Perhaps I didn't phrase the question well enough.

If come 8th May, sadly, we will have to complete in the play offs, what, pray you, do you think the odds would be on us, at that time (meaning in the future) to win the play-offs?

Hull, Derby and Wednesday are confirmed to be in the play-offs now so already have odds as outlined above. But we are not.

So if we were to join them in the play-offs, what would be our odds (at that time, in the future = not now, just to be clear)?

e.g. if Hull are 3.0 we might be more fancied than them at 2.0, or we might be less fancied, at 3.5 say, by virtue of suffering 'post-coital' lassitude etc.

I had hoped this was a serious question...

 

[KT17]

I'm not a bookie, but if we do miss out on the autos, I'd guess we'd be around 13-8 - or 2.63 in new money.

Thank you Mtoto for understanding the question!

 

[clippedgull]

To win the playoffs: Sky Bet

Hull 2/1
Derby 3/1
Sheff Wed 7/2
Brighton 5/1
Middlesbrough 6/1
Burnley 40/1

Apologies, the OP had the same in digital format!

 

[Solid at the back]

Yeah I was

 

[Mtoto]

Will we flip-flop with Boro if we beat Derby? [MENTION=588]8ace[/MENTION]?

Won't be far off. Boro currently 1.91 to win next week, so draw/Albion win is 2.1. But Albion price to beat Derby is 1.7, which would mean we only need a draw. In that scenario, I'd reckon it's basically 1.91 each of two, tho the books will have much bigger prior liabilities on Boro.

 

[KT17]

Havent you answered your own question? Or am I too hammered to realise?

No, cos I'm by no means certain that 3rd placed teams are necessarily favourites to go on and win promotion... that's kinda what interests me to find out...

 

[Bozza]

Won't be far off. Boro currently 1.91 to win next week, so draw/Albion win is 2.1. But Albion price to beat Derby is 1.7, which would mean we only need a draw. In that scenario, I'd reckon it's basically 1.91 each of two, tho the books will have much bigger prior liabilities on Boro.

Which reminds me of this article. Can this really be right?!?

Ladbrokes told this paper they were “desperate” for Burnley to top the table as an Albion title will leave them facing their “second biggest liability” after Leicester City - if they were to win the Premier League.

William Hill said they had taken a £1,250 each way bet on Albion to win the division at 20/1 which could net the better almost £36,000.

The bookies said about 14 per cent of all bets on the market had been for Brighton with only Derby County and Middlesbrough attracting more of punters’ money.

Paddy Power said they would be paying out £150,000 if Albion were to win the Championship, £20,000 more than if the more-fancied pre-season frontrunners Middlesbrough win the title and more than both Burnley and Hull.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Which reminds me of this article. Can this really be right?!?

Ladbrokes told this paper they were “desperate” for Burnley to top the table as an Albion title will leave them facing their “second biggest liability” after Leicester City - if they were to win the Premier League.

William Hill said they had taken a £1,250 each way bet on Albion to win the division at 20/1 which could net the better almost £36,000.

The bookies said about 14 per cent of all bets on the market had been for Brighton with only Derby County and Middlesbrough attracting more of punters’ money.

Paddy Power said they would be paying out £150,000 if Albion were to win the Championship, £20,000 more than if the more-fancied pre-season frontrunners Middlesbrough win the title and more than both Burnley and Hull.

Ok I'll own up i did put a few bob on us being champions

 

[KT17]

Which reminds me of this article. Can this really be right?!?

Ladbrokes told this paper they were “desperate” for Burnley to top the table as an Albion title will leave them facing their “second biggest liability” after Leicester City - if they were to win the Premier League.

William Hill said they had taken a £1,250 each way bet on Albion to win the division at 20/1 which could net the better almost £36,000.

The bookies said about 14 per cent of all bets on the market had been for Brighton with only Derby County and Middlesbrough attracting more of punters’ money.

Paddy Power said they would be paying out £150,000 if Albion were to win the Championship, £20,000 more than if the more-fancied pre-season frontrunners Middlesbrough win the title and more than both Burnley and Hull.

Relatively small sums for the bookies, and presumably they would have laid them off if they were that worried.

My question really is, if we end up in the play-offs, will we be favourite to win 'em? And if so by how much? Or if not by how much?

 

[studio150]

My question really is, if we end up in the play-offs, will we be favourite to win 'em? And if so by how much? Or if not by how much?

Why is this so important, there are still 2 games to play.

But let's assume we miss out and go into the play-offs. Presumably our odds would differ if we have a full squad to select from as opposed to Stockdale being sent off for violent conduct at Boro so misses all 3 games, combined with both Hemed and Baldock going down with hamstring injuries ruling them out of the next 3 games.

There seems little point in worrying about this until after the Boro game, when it will be of no interest anyway.

 

[KT17]

Why is this so important, there are still 2 games to play.

But let's assume we miss out and go into the play-offs. Presumably our odds would differ if we have a full squad to select from as opposed to Stockdale being sent off for violent conduct at Boro so misses all 3 games, combined with both Hemed and Baldock going down with hamstring injuries ruling them out of the next 3 games.

There seems little point in worrying about this until after the Boro game, when it will be of no interest anyway.

Fair points both Studio, and I'm not worried! But I am intrigued to know what the bookies reckon about our hypothetical chances versus H D & SW - all things being equal, which, yes, they never are.

 

[BensGrandad]

I am, as I have said not into gambling but met an old school chum on the train who is being an ex bookie who tried to explain the handicap bets system saying he had put £125 EW on us and will pick up about £8500 if we do get automatic but about £ 800 if we dont. How does this work as I understood him when he placed the bets in August we had a 15 handicap Burnley 7 and Boro 8 which I took it to mean that to win we had to be within 15 points of either giving them their handicap points, which we obviously will be, Am I reading this correctly?

 

[KT17]

I am, as I have said not into gambling but met an old school chum on the train who is being an ex bookie who tried to explain the handicap bets system saying he had put £125 EW on us and will pick up about £8500 if we do get automatic but about £ 800 if we dont. How does this work as I understood him when he placed the bets in August we had a 15 handicap Burnley 7 and Boro 8 which I took it to mean that to win we had to be within 15 points of either giving them their handicap points, which we obviously will be, Am I reading this correctly?

More info on the bet required...

 

[Machiavelli]

Perhaps I didn't phrase the question well enough.

If come 8th May, sadly, we will have to complete in the play offs, what, pray you, do you think the odds would be on us, at that time (meaning in the future) to win the play-offs?

Hull, Derby and Wednesday are confirmed to be in the play-offs now so already have odds as outlined above. But we are not.

So if we were to join them in the play-offs, what would be our odds (at that time, in the future = not now, just to be clear)?

e.g. if Hull are 3.0 we might be more fancied than them at 2.0, or we might be less fancied, at 3.5 say, by virtue of suffering 'post-coital' lassitude etc.

I had hoped this was a serious question...

It's kind of the combined total of Burnley, Boro and us in your original post.
Can't do bookies odds on this, but I'd say we'd have a 33-40% chance. I don't go along with the all four play-off candidates have an equal (i.e. 25%) chance. Two legs, and home advantage in the second leg is advantageous to the better team, in my view. The final is a lottery, and I'd put the two teams in it at 50-50 at its outset.