[Finance] BoE Interest Rise

[Gwylan]

The BoE are obsessed with inflation.

But this is cost-push inflation, stemming from overseas events.

Madness. This will drive 1,000's with variable rate mortgages and other borrowings over the edge. 1991 to 1993, 100,000's folk lost their homes or handed in the keys.
The average mortgage for a first time buyer today £170,000.

A .5% increase on 170k mortgage over 30 years is less than 50 quid a month. Unpleasant, but nothing compared with the £200 - 500 increases in energy costs that are being reported, that's what needs to be tackled.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Totally agree and it will cause unrest before long. Those that make such decisions live in a bubble completely devoid of knowledge of normal people and their current issues.

Utter madness the inflation is being caused by things the government could do something about.

I suppose the BOE might say here that their mandate here is to reduce inflation, whether there is a social impact is a political concern to be dealt with by politicians.

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

This will drive 1,000's with variable rate mortgages and other borrowings over the edge.

Perhaps, a house price crash is finally coming.....

 

[dejavuatbtn]

But for how long?

For as long as they can keep the idiot out of number 10.

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

Utter madness the inflation is being caused by things the government could do something about.

Like a war in Ukraine?

 

[PILTDOWN MAN]

Like a war in Ukraine?

Tax on petrol maybe, yeah got 5p off a litre meanwhile the tax raised by the high price far out weighed that given back.

Allowing what is a free for all in electric/gas charging. Stopping the outrageous rise in standing charges. Not regulating heating oil price rise.

The war and COVID may have caused the rise but the government can alleviate the situation. Hitting people with higher interest isn't going to help. This is a once in a generation situation where the economy has been hit by a series of events. To simply put up inflation is to bury ones head.

 

[A1X]

Might be nice for the contenders to be PM to come up with some ideas for how to fix the problems rather than whinging about the existence of gay people and threatening people who talk about our national history with re-education.

Hint - the answer is not, and never will be, tax cuts.

 

[Weststander]

A .5% increase on 170k mortgage over 30 years is less than 50 quid a month. Unpleasant, but nothing compared with the £200 - 500 increases in energy costs that are being reported, that's what needs to be tackled.

Base rates in no time at all have gone from 0.1% to 1.75%. The first time buyers have seen a £234 dent in monthly disposable income. Analysts feel we'll see 3% rates soon, that's a total £412 hit to household disposal income.

Home energy - in 2018 the monthly average cost per household was £102, now capped at £164 (1,971/12) and predicted to reach £321 (£3,850/12) by January. An overall increase of £219.

Horrendous, millions will become destitute. Raising interest rates will hit many.

 

[Paulie Gualtieri]

This is cost-push inflation, not linked to a consumer boom, there isn't one.

Prices cannot fall. Imports costs more, fuel costs more, distribution and shipping costs more, a shortage of staff is leading to wage inflation.

That "household finances stops people spending" in this case at this time, will cause businesses to fold eg retailers, cafes, pubs.

Fair points.

Wouldn’t prices need to reduce (from the profit margin) if sales are down though?


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[nicko31]

Base rates in no time at all have gone from 0.1% to 1.75%. The first time buyers have seen a £234 dent in monthly disposable income. Analysts feel we'll see 3% rates soon, that's a total £412 hit to household disposal income.

Home energy - in 2018 the monthly average cost per household was £102, now capped at £164 (1,971/12) and predicted to reach £321 (£3,850/12) by January. An overall increase of £219.

Horrendous, millions will become destitute. Raising interest rates will hit many.

Seriously, if we'd talking about millions becoming destitute on base rates of 1.75% then lending is more out of control than I thought.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Fair points.

Wouldn’t prices need to reduce (from the profit margin) if sales are down though?


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The profit margin will evaporate. These business need to pay for heating, as well (and they won't benefit from the price cap). They have staff demanding pay rises, many businesses will use petrol. Many will have EU import and export tariffs kicking in for the first time as well. We've timed that nicely.

 

[beorhthelm]

Might be nice for the contenders to be PM to come up with some ideas for how to fix the problems rather than whinging about the existence of gay people and threatening people who talk about our national history with re-education.

Hint - the answer is not, and never will be, tax cuts.

would depend on the tax and the cut. reducing fuel duty, levy and VAT on energy would be really helpful, right?

 

[WATFORD zero]

I’m glad the BOE is independent of the government

But for how long?

Possibly not long

Liz Truss would review Bank of England mandate, says Tory ally

Party leadership frontrunner intends to see if Bank is ‘fit for purpose’ over its independence to set interest rates

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/04/liz-truss-review-bank-of-england-mandate-says-tory-ally

 

[Pondicherry]

I’m glad the BOE is independent of the government

Didn't the BOE get us to where we are now via low interest rates and quantitive easing?

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

I know little about it and I'm sure it's not possible for everyone. But with interest rates so low its daft for anyone not to be on a fixed rate mortgage

 

[Paulie Gualtieri]

The profit margin will evaporate. These business need to pay for heating, as well (and they won't benefit from the price cap). They have staff demanding pay rises, many businesses will use petrol. Many will have EU import and export tariffs kicking in for the first time as well. We've timed that nicely.

Wouldn’t that go down the supply chain all the way to raw materials? The reset of margin would need to be levelled out at all stages.

The externals fuel / water etc markets would also need to follow suit?

I don’t know genuinely interested though.




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[Gwylan]

Seriously, if we'd talking about millions becoming destitute on base rates of 1.75% then lending is more out of control than I thought.

Exactly. It's been as plain as a pikestaff than rates were going to rise at some time; all home owners should be prepared. When I took out my first mortgage, the base rate was over 6% (and a mortgage of 9%) but I budgeted that I could cope even if the rate went up by 5 or 6%. The fuel cost is much more of a concern.

 

[Weststander]

Seriously, if we'd talking about millions becoming destitute on base rates of 1.75% then lending is more out of control than I thought.

From a combination of £300 per month fuel bills, base interest rates rising from 0.1% to a predicted 3%, vehicle fuel price increases of 40%, grocery price inflation and the relentless furtive inflation in stuff like water bills.

When new mortgage applications were stress tested, no one could've foreseen a tripling in some other key domestic costs.

 

[Paulie Gualtieri]

Not a great outlook then really.

I come off a fixed rate of 1.73 next summer so expecting >3%.

I’m was also getting made redundant next July but took the decision to forgo a redundancy payment and move now to a secure firm whilst the market is good in FS. A bit of a gamble but suspect There’s a real chance I’d be eating into that redundancy payment quickly just to get by.


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[beorhthelm]

Didn't the BOE get us to where we are now via low interest rates and quantitive easing?

depends who you ask, their views on monetry policy, where they think we are now. there's solid arguement QE caused inflation, evidence it didnt, also arguments we'd be in much worse place if hadnt with crashing economies the past decade. oil and energy price more significant impact on demand and price now.