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BJs winter covid toolbox
- Thread starter crodonilson
- Start date
Yes, you don't want to wear a mask. Got it.
worthingseagull123
Well-known member
- May 5, 2012
- 2,688
It’ll be just like last year then. Ignore the government instructions and have a normal family Christmas like I had last year.
If people had followed the guidance and worn masks when asked it would have reduced the chance of mandatory restrictions coming in later. Which, might I add is becoming increasingly likely by the day due to selfish people not wearing masks when asked.
If restrictions come in again then the blame in no small way rests on people who wouldn't wear masks when they were optional.
All your six form attempts at psychology won't change that.
How utterly ridiculous - you do yourself no credit whatsoever. Please explain to me why anyone, and specifically [MENTION=2223]e77[/MENTION], would want to be in lockdown again? It's utterly miserable for everyone, and also means, out of our sight, countless people are dying needlessly in pretty grim conditions, likely alone from their loved ones.
Those who are rallying for small minor inexpensive NPIs are doing so precisely because they DON'T want us to end up with harsher restrictions, up to and including some form of lockdown, in the months ahead.
What the models showed (and, again, for the hard of thinking: models are NOT predictions), regardless of how pessimistic they were, we would now be beyond the post-freedom day spike, and seeing all metrics improving quite markedly.
As it is, all metrics are now worsening. Cases, hospitalisations and deaths are all increasing at between 15% and 20% week on week. Hopefully they'll tail off again very soon, but no one can say they will.
I'm more inclined to listen to the likes of the British Medical Association and the NHS Confederation about the state of play, than an utter shitshow of a government who have repeatedly acted too late, meaning harsher restrictions being imposed on us all for far longer than otherwise needed to be the case.
One more thing...
I hadn't thought about R0 for ages until Jenny Harries mentioned it in this week's press conference, where she said we are wobbling around between 0.9 and 1.1.
As we know anything above 1 means exponential growth and, as we also know, this thing is like an oil tanker. It starts off slow. In fact it's so slow at the beginning that we're not even sure it's moving at all. But it is moving, and it will get faster and faster, and then it's a real struggle to get it to stop again.
The difference between 0.9 and 1.1 looks tiny, right?
If you start at 50,000 cases with an R0 of 1.1, within five cycles you have over 80,000 cases a day.
If you start at 50,000 cases with an R0 of 0.9, within five cycles you have under 30,000 cases a day.
That's why apparently small behavioural changes can make a massive difference to where we end up.
I hadn't thought about R0 for ages until Jenny Harries mentioned it in this week's press conference, where she said we are wobbling around between 0.9 and 1.1.
As we know anything above 1 means exponential growth and, as we also know, this thing is like an oil tanker. It starts off slow. In fact it's so slow at the beginning that we're not even sure it's moving at all. But it is moving, and it will get faster and faster, and then it's a real struggle to get it to stop again.
The difference between 0.9 and 1.1 looks tiny, right?
If you start at 50,000 cases with an R0 of 1.1, within five cycles you have over 80,000 cases a day.
If you start at 50,000 cases with an R0 of 0.9, within five cycles you have under 30,000 cases a day.
That's why apparently small behavioural changes can make a massive difference to where we end up.
Fat Boy Fat
New member
- Aug 21, 2020
- 1,077
Apparently 1 in 60 people had Covid in the UK last week. When shielding was ended by the government it was 1 in 150, with some mitigations in place.
Yet still they won't talk about mitigation of any kind, save for "personal" responsibility.
The vulnerable seemingly don't matter much now!
Yet still they won't talk about mitigation of any kind, save for "personal" responsibility.
The vulnerable seemingly don't matter much now!
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
You’ve just been spanked …tut tut for doing yourself no credit ….
I'm not sure why anyone would find it funny.
Seriously - someone tell me why any one of us wants to be in a position where we can't go to pubs with our mates, pop to the cinema to see a new film, go and see one of our favourite bands live, go out for a meal with our family or see games at the Amex.
...and all whilst, in hospitals up and down the country, hundreds of people are dying too young.
Why would anyone want that?
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
Yup blame me I’ll take full responsibility…
Don't know why you are joking. I do in part.
Not the sharpest tool, are you?
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
I won't take lectures on civility from someone who displays a complete lack of intelligence and understanding of science and has no empathy towards the suffering of their fellow human beings.
Masks are not the solution. Some are holding on to them as a pacifier blanket but there are few indications they make any significant change in the spread of the virus. In some countries where a lot of people use them, the virus is increasing. In some countries where some use them, it is increasing. In some countries where few use it, it is increasing. Same goes for the opposite. The whole mask shaming thing some people are doing, well... I'm sure they are doing it because they believe in it, but not everyone is going to have this fundamentalist view and however much they want everyone to wear one, But as I said, very little indicates that everything would be nice and healthy if everyone was just wearing a mask. Its not the solution.
The vaccine was labelled the solution. It is also not the solution. You are not going to get 75-90% of the people go take the vaccine every 6th month for the rest of eternity and the initial estimations of its efficiency seems to have been off target anyway. It is not the solution unless someone can invent the kind that offers life time or long term immunity.
Lockdowns are not the solution for obvious reasons. In the long run its just not going to work out economically and when it comes to peoples mental health etc. But short term they can and probably will be necessary.
The solution is to face the virus and in the long term have it adapt to humans and vice versa, probably making it a lot less lethal as that seems to be the case of most viruses. For the next ten years or so this adaption might have to be mixed with occasional lockdowns in order to keep healthcare from getting overwhelmed. But I do believe facing the virus is the only long term solution. It strikes me as pretty much impossible to eradicate this virus from the planet, and I dont want humans for eternity to have a lifestyle based on the existence of this virus.
The vaccine was labelled the solution. It is also not the solution. You are not going to get 75-90% of the people go take the vaccine every 6th month for the rest of eternity and the initial estimations of its efficiency seems to have been off target anyway. It is not the solution unless someone can invent the kind that offers life time or long term immunity.
Lockdowns are not the solution for obvious reasons. In the long run its just not going to work out economically and when it comes to peoples mental health etc. But short term they can and probably will be necessary.
The solution is to face the virus and in the long term have it adapt to humans and vice versa, probably making it a lot less lethal as that seems to be the case of most viruses. For the next ten years or so this adaption might have to be mixed with occasional lockdowns in order to keep healthcare from getting overwhelmed. But I do believe facing the virus is the only long term solution. It strikes me as pretty much impossible to eradicate this virus from the planet, and I dont want humans for eternity to have a lifestyle based on the existence of this virus.
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,634
According to the ONS, the number of people with covid in week ending 17th July was 741,700, or 1 in 75.. Now, it's 977,900, or 1 in 55. What date were you using for the "shielding ended"? 19th July was when the general restrictions ended.
Of course, the number of adults with coronavirus has fallen since July, but the number of children with it has vastly increased. Does that make a difference?