[Politics] Bigger economic problems incoming

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Unless the Tories are in charge of the entire world, he has a point though.

Not that they seem to be doing much to make the situation easier, but the issues are bigger than what any individual party could cause.

My point was, in the UK, when the global financial crash occurred in the noughties, the tories blamed labour, and Brown in particular. Now we are in trouble again (and in the UK it is particularly concerning) the tories are blaming the global situation, the war in Ukraine, etc.

My point was they are hypocritical lying shits. There, I said it!

He has no point (other than a wrong one).

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Banks are intrinsically dangerous and flawed structures. Their only way of growth is through putting others in deb. Debt is obviously not always a bad thing, but when debts of states, companies and households are always increasing, it is obviously not sustainable since it will require eternal growth to pay those debts, and eternal growth is a dead concept other than among the most market-religious neo-liberals.

The banking system needs to be non-profit or very heavily regulated, or it will sooner or later either enslave us or collapse under itself. None of the paper tiger regulations coming through since 2008 are going to make any real difference. The banking system needs to be reformed completely.

Just like houses. But feel free to live in a tent or cave if it makes you feel safer

 

[Swansman]

Just like houses. But feel free to live in a tent or cave if it makes you feel safer

 

[Bodian]

My point was, in the UK, when the global financial crash occurred in the noughties, the tories blamed labour, and Brown in particular. Now we are in trouble again (and in the UK it is particularly concerning) the tories are blaming the global situation, the war in Ukraine, etc.

My point was they are hypocritical lying shits. There, I said it!

He has no point (other than a wrong one).

And there you have summed up the modern Tory party in a few short words.

 

[chip]

My point was, in the UK, when the global financial crash occurred in the noughties, the tories blamed labour, and Brown in particular. Now we are in trouble again (and in the UK it is particularly concerning) the tories are blaming the global situation, the war in Ukraine, etc.

My point was they are hypocritical lying shits. There, I said it!

He has no point (other than a wrong one).

Brown certainly put an end to boom and bust

I think the financial systems are in an extremely nonlinear operating point and much more interconnected than in 2008. Let's hope that there are no discontinuities

 

[cunning fergus]

My point was, in the UK, when the global financial crash occurred in the noughties, the tories blamed labour, and Brown in particular. Now we are in trouble again (and in the UK it is particularly concerning) the tories are blaming the global situation, the war in Ukraine, etc.

My point was they are hypocritical lying shits. There, I said it!

He has no point (other than a wrong one).

Absolute nonsense.

Brown was one of the worst chancellors ever………and a key cog in the CAUSE of the 2008 crash in the U.K.

The proof………how about Fred Goodwin, so close to Brown he made him a knight of the realm and interfered with fateful RBS purchase of ABN AMRO.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...on-former-friend-sir-fred-goodwin-3b66gs87g29

Here’s Brown in 2007, in the Mansion House speech no less, lauding his city chums about his “risk based regulatory approach”.

https://www.ukpol.co.uk/gordon-brown-2007-mansion-house-speech/

In hindsight Ed Balls apologised in Parliament for Labour’s failures to control U.K. financial services.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2011/sep/26/ed-balls-sorry-labour-failures

Oh, and how about PFI……

https://inews.co.uk/news/legacy-pfi-contracts-wasteful-shocking-exclusive-investigation-350832

And not forgetting his shameful raid on pension funds.

https://www.ftadviser.com/2014/05/0...ions-raid-WTQAjLW5DSRp9HUxwNZN7K/article.html

Brown rightly disappeared after his electoral defeat………..he should never be seen again, the stupid I’ve abolished boom and bust one eyed shit.

 

[Crawley Dingo]

Yup, some deep trouble coming up. What we're experiencing now is just the tip of the iceberg.

The world needs a complete remodeling. Growth, in the current sense, is a dead concept. Same with how we percieve the job market, since in 10 years one in three current jobs will be replaced by AI and automation. The current systems will collapse under that. Our percieved purposes and values are going to have to be entirely reconfigured. Either that, or one way or another the human population will decrease to sustainable levels.

In the short term, naturally there will be financials institutions etc. in trouble. Most of the economy today is built on what may have been old truths but are today lies rapidly going entirely obsolete. There's a lot of money, and not a lot of value. In the end that just doesnt work.

The problem with the tech will take our jobs arguement is that there is no evidence of this and there has NEVER been any evidence of this recycled Luddite philosophy. Your right on the rest though.

 

[ShandyH]

Personally, I'm diversifying my money into a portfolio that is more likely to hold value better against inflation than money in the bank. Usual suspects like Gold, Silver, commodities etc, and a bit of crypto albeit that's higher risk. I'm also trying to pay down as much of my (pretty large) mortgage as possible before my fixe rate ends in a year.

Certainly the latter piece is good advice. Borrowing is going to become more expensive. Also perceived safe haven of the Dollar is making the Pound and Euro suffer.

 

[Swansman]

The problem with the tech will take our jobs arguement is that there is no evidence of this and there has NEVER been any evidence of this recycled Luddite philosophy. Your right on the rest though.

There has never been technological tools that could do pretty much anything that humans could, but better. Now there is though.

 

[ShandyH]

This is a natural cycle of economics albeit under extraordinary circumstances. First the deregulation of the banking system to mirror the US model propagated by Alan Greenspan providing a secondary platform to the disaster. Then the financial crisis of 2008 and the hugely increased borrowing from 45% of GDP to 82% of GDP. Banks absolutely screwed the economy by over-leveraging. Then COVID takes us to borrowing of 92% of GDP.

The economy is in a mess. But it’s in a mess worldwide due to the excessive borrowing.

These banks are regulated by Solvency 2 regulations which means they’ll be very well reserved for any loss. Unless there has been systemic mismanagement, the banks will be highly undervalued. Regulation in Europe and the UK is significantly better than the US. So any aggressive reduction of their share price could be as a consequence of the strength of the US dollar with buyers trying to flatten that pancake ready for consumption.

 

[Crawley Dingo]

There has never been technological tools that could do pretty much anything that humans could, but better. Now there is though.

Rubbish, unless you can say humans walk faster than a car or fly better flapping their arms than a 747. Its the same thing, each new tech needs R+D, manufacturing, sales, maintanence etc, iow new jobs. I remember reading research into the effect of tech on the West German car industry in the 70's and over a 5 year period it added 500,000 jobs net, in a settled industry.

 

[Swansman]

Rubbish, unless you can say humans walk faster than a car or fly better flapping their arms than a 747. Its the same thing, each new tech needs R+D, manufacturing, sales, maintanence etc, iow new jobs. I remember reading research into the effect of tech on the West German car industry in the 70's and over a 5 year period it added 500,000 jobs net, in a settled industry.

Cars and airplanes could not operate without humans. Machines are not computers.

The emerging technology can do R&D, manufacturing and sales cheaper and more efficiently than humans can.

 

[Insel affe]

There has never been technological tools that could do pretty much anything that humans could, but better. Now there is though.

Question, not argumentative though..

What about the industry that props up the economy the building industry, that currently is in itself experiencing massive problems not least supply, but more importantly since Bexit labour, youngsters leaving school are no longer taking up skilled well paid when accredited work.

Artificial intelligence can’t build a wall, install plumbing and plaster or fit flooring.
But there is a clear lack young people willing to take up those vocations, which is contributing.

 

[Swansman]

Question, not argumentative though..

What about the industry that props up the economy the building industry, that currently is in itself experiencing massive problems not least supply, but more importantly since Bexit labour, youngsters leaving school are no longer taking up skilled well paid when accredited work.

Artificial intelligence can’t build a wall, install plumbing and plaster or fit flooring.
But there is a clear lack young people willing to take up those vocations, which is contributing.

Development in construction is definitely slow and will need humans for quite a while yet, but of course AI/robotics can build walls etc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEH4pMnpgps

 

[RowZ]

Credit Suisse and Deusche Bank - both in a big hole.

Either:

1. Bailout comes - CBs pivot....risk assets to the moon.

2. The j***s who run the show behind Vanguard / Blackrock let these two big boys burn - armageddon - stocks and crypto smashed....deep recession - many dead.

The only safe haven (apart from land n water) is USDC, LINK, QNT.......everything else looks like dog turd.

The next year is massive opportunity if you can see what is really going on.......they need an event/s for CBDCs....so much is about getting people to want CBDCs before 2025....align with this = generational wealth.

The what and how isn't so hard....the timing is more tricky. Past few years how I saw things has me multuple lands with food n water, one in tropics out of Europe, and all value decentralised and tax free. Key is to turn off mainstream media and become a sovereign being.

 

[beorhthelm]

no significant market reaction from Asia overnight.

 

[Swansman]

Credit Suisse and Deusche Bank - both in a big hole.

Either:

1. Bailout comes - CBs pivot....risk assets to the moon.

2. The j***s who run the show behind Vanguard / Blackrock let these two big boys burn - armageddon - stocks and crypto smashed....deep recession - many dead.

The only safe haven (apart from land n water) is USDC, LINK, QNT.......everything else looks like dog turd.

The next year is massive opportunity if you can see what is really going on.......they need an event/s for CBDCs....so much is about getting people to want CBDCs before 2025....align with this = generational wealth.

The what and how isn't so hard....the timing is more tricky. Past few years how I saw things has me multuple lands with food n water, one in tropics out of Europe, and all value decentralised and tax free. Key is to turn off mainstream media and become a sovereign being.

With or without mainstream media, if changes are significant enough you'll feel them regardless if you read about them or not.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

The problem with the tech will take our jobs arguement is that there is no evidence of this and there has NEVER been any evidence of this recycled Luddite philosophy. Your right on the rest though.

I hate to break it to but it is true. To give a few examples, up to the early 80s many businesses employed typing pools. As PCs become common so this technology to auto produce letters using sophisicated mail merges and action triggers ( like someone has gone into an unauthorised overdraft ). You'll be lucky to find a single typist in most organisations nowadays. Restaurant and bar chains now have automatic ordering systems to restock based on sales so nobody needs to calculate and place orders at the end of the day - this saves on staff heads. Equally in many McDonalds you now order from and pay at a screen - this has allowed McDonalds to cut staff. One branch in Dieppe that I use every time I come back from France used to have at least six staff on - it's now never more than two. Let's take customer service - you know that "Live Chat" option ? Well many are run by AI bots - not humans. This negates the need for so many staff to answer the live chat. Equally live chat means not so many calls need taking and thus a business needs less call agents. Banking - so many of us do our banking online that thousands of branches have closed and thousands of jobs have been lost. Even the branches that have survived have less staff due to self service. IT - self help protals for customers mean less Service Desk staff are required. Self healing networks' while kind of in their infancy, have and will continue to mean less network engineers are required. Car industry - cars on the production line used to be built by humans alone. Now a good percentage of the car is built by computers. And you've guessed it meaning less production line staff.

I could go on but as you see technology has taken jobs. It's created some new ones admittedly but not as many as have been lost. AI will be the next big job killer.
[MENTION=38333]Swansman[/MENTION] - fyi, many planes an actually take off, fly and land themselves without a pilot. For obvious reasons airlines aren't prepared to go down that route and nor are the safety regulators.

 

[Weststander]

This is a natural cycle of economics albeit under extraordinary circumstances. First the deregulation of the banking system to mirror the US model propagated by Alan Greenspan providing a secondary platform to the disaster. Then the financial crisis of 2008 and the hugely increased borrowing from 45% of GDP to 82% of GDP. Banks absolutely screwed the economy by over-leveraging. Then COVID takes us to borrowing of 92% of GDP.

The economy is in a mess. But it’s in a mess worldwide due to the excessive borrowing.

These banks are regulated by Solvency 2 regulations which means they’ll be very well reserved for any loss. Unless there has been systemic mismanagement, the banks will be highly undervalued. Regulation in Europe and the UK is significantly better than the US. So any aggressive reduction of their share price could be as a consequence of the strength of the US dollar with buyers trying to flatten that pancake ready for consumption.

Very good post.

 

[McTavish]

Credit Suisse and Deusche Bank - both in a big hole.

Either:

1. Bailout comes - CBs pivot....risk assets to the moon.

2. The j***s who run the show behind Vanguard / Blackrock let these two big boys burn - armageddon - stocks and crypto smashed....deep recession - many dead.

The only safe haven (apart from land n water) is USDC, LINK, QNT.......everything else looks like dog turd.

The next year is massive opportunity if you can see what is really going on.......they need an event/s for CBDCs....so much is about getting people to want CBDCs before 2025....align with this = generational wealth.

The what and how isn't so hard....the timing is more tricky. Past few years how I saw things has me multuple lands with food n water, one in tropics out of Europe, and all value decentralised and tax free. Key is to turn off mainstream media and become a sovereign being.

What are the three missing letters in j***s?