Big season for Ashley Barnes

[T soprano]

Think Barnes will have a good season TBH a great squad player to have in the championship always puts in a good shift and knows where the back off the net is

 

[Buckley's Mad Eye]

He's an instinctive finisher, and he's getting better and better. I hope he plays every match.

 

[glasfryn]

Maybe but he came back and looked total quality in those last few games. Some people just enjoy an excuse to crucify him and a not inconsiderable number thought he should be sacked on the spot. Wrong I know but I found his trying to trip the ref quite amusing and I believe from his demeanour on his return when he just got on with the game, may be a turning point in his career.

I know I have zilch chance of any agreement from the many Barnes haters though, hey ho.

I think they are all asleep

 

[Pavilionaire]

I think Barnes' stock is at its height, Gus liked him and he got lots of game time. Personally, I'd look to sell him to someone like Derby or Boro for a million and use that money elsewhere in the squad.

Gus was a cautious manager, so loved playing Barnes who would never commit to out and out attack. I think that extra man slowed our play down and made us look predictable. I can't see Barnes will get anywhere near the same amount of gametime in 2013/14.

 

[Mellotron]

I think Barnes' stock is at its height, Gus liked him and he got lots of game time. Personally, I'd look to sell him to someone like Derby or Boro for a million and use that money elsewhere in the squad.

He's barely had any chance to play in his best position, a position in which he frequently gets goals. He's very young and coming on leaps and bounds every season.

I'd say his stock has a LONG long way to go yet.

 

[brakespear]

He's barely had any chance to play in his best position, a position in which he frequently gets goals. He's very young and coming on leaps and bounds every season.

I'd say his stock has a LONG long way to go yet.

 

[Acker79]

True, but presumably you could unearth similar incidents for other players well.

I take your point though completely. The basis stats included were only really aimed at sparking some debate.

I think Barnes is fine as a striker. I also think he suffers from being played out of position and chopped and changed around to various roles during a match. Given a run in a more favoured position, perhaps as a foil for Ulloa, I could see him coming good.

Totally. Which is my point here at the end about using team stats to judge individuals.

Agree with this in principle, though I do think that the fact that although 'individual' stats are limited in that don't necessarily correlate with the 'team' truth, they do go someway towards understanding and highlighting specific direct contributions. And a team is, after all, made up of individuals. Plus it's quite fun, and sometimes you see really weird outlying stats that give cause to think slightly differently about a player.

But more importantly for me at least it's an attempt to develop an understanding of the game based on what is actually happening, rather than hunches, prejudices and what someone has regurgitated out of The Currant Bun.

More stattage please.

I love stats. But, they need perspective and context. I think you need to look at individual stats more than team stats when judging individuals. As tempting as it, you can't judge an individual by a teams win/loss record. You need to analyse the individual contribution to the team: goals and assists are the obvious ones, but also free kicks won, goal line clearances, tackles, blocks, distance run, time on the ball, passes attempted/completed. You also need to look at other aspect, less traditional stats: one of barnes's benefits in gus's eyes appears to have been the support he gave the left back - if bridge didn't play, barnes almost certainly did, to support the painter (or whoever) as left back, something that no stat seems to measures - you also have to look more at the assists, and the build up to other goals to not limit it to who touched it last.

I will be seriously disappointed if Oscar is just reading spreadsheets to judge players. But, I do love stats.

 

[Buckley's Mad Eye]

I think Barnes' stock is at its height, Gus liked him and he got lots of game time. Personally, I'd look to sell him to someone like Derby or Boro for a million and use that money elsewhere in the squad.

Gus was a cautious manager, so loved playing Barnes who would never commit to out and out attack. I think that extra man slowed our play down and made us look predictable. I can't see Barnes will get anywhere near the same amount of gametime in 2013/14.

23 year old striker, with a 1 in 3 goal ratio for us, and you want to sell him for just £1m. He's worth much more than that isn't he?

 

[Munkfish]

Did OSRGull ever pay up his bet about Barnes last season?

or did he weltch on it and do a runner?

 

[Brighton Breezy]

you also have to look more at the assists, and the build up to other goals to not limit it to who touched it last.

I will be seriously disappointed if Oscat is just reading spreadsheets to judge players. But, I do love stats.

I would love to see assists being given in football in the same way they are in the NHL - extending it out to the previous two passes etc.

 

[Pavilionaire]

Are you saying that for the last 2 years Gus could have been getting a lot more out of him up front but chose not to do that?

When Barnes has played up front in the Championship he's been guilty of some shocking misses, and even by CMS's standards Barnes looked woefully short of confidence on a number of occasions. Gus managed this pretty well by giving him a roving midfield role and telling him to get forward when he could, ergo he picks up 10 goals a season and puts in a shift.

But that touch in front of goal worries me. I think Gus got the max out of him, I think he can sustain that level in the Championship and he is still young, but I'd question whether he'd be more than a bit-part player in a Championship promotion side.

 

[Pavilionaire]

23 year old striker, with a 1 in 3 goal ratio for us, and you want to sell him for just £1m. He's worth much more than that isn't he?

In the Championship it's 19 goals in 77 apps, so actually 1 in 4, of which 4 or 5 are penalties. Is he worth more than a million - maybe, but not much more, possibly £1.25m at a push.

Don't get me wrong, I think he's a decent Championship player and has been an excellent signing for the Albion, but I don't see how playing more of Ashley Barnes is going to get us promoted.

 

[MattBackHome]

I love stats. But, they need perspective and context. I think you need to look at individual stats more than team stats when judging individuals. As tempting as it, you can't judge an individual by a teams win/loss record. You need to analyse the individual contribution to the team: goals and assists are the obvious ones, but also free kicks won, goal line clearances, tackles, blocks, distance run, time on the ball, passes attempted/completed. You also need to look at other aspect, less traditional stats: one of barnes's benefits in gus's eyes appears to have been the support he gave the left back - if bridge didn't play, barnes almost certainly did, to support the painter (or whoever) as left back, something that no stat seems to measures - you also have to look more at the assists, and the build up to other goals to not limit it to who touched it last.

I will be seriously disappointed if Oscar is just reading spreadsheets to judge players. But, I do love stats.

100% agree.

 

[Icy Gull]

In the Championship it's 19 goals in 77 apps, so actually 1 in 4, of which 4 or 5 are penalties. Is he worth more than a million - maybe, but not much more, possibly £1.25m at a push.

Don't get me wrong, I think he's a decent Championship player and has been an excellent signing for the Albion, but I don't see how playing more of Ashley Barnes is going to get us promoted.

Vast majority of those goals came from midfield unless I'm mistaken. Barnes is an instinctive striker who needs to be in the box, really hope Garcia gives him a decent run in his natural position unless he is gonna be allowed to splash millions on a proven and experienced striker. I'm not convinced Ulloa is ever going to be a two games a week player if he was as knackered as Gus said after just about every game he played, so not counting on him being an ever present. Barnes played in a side that JUST missed out on promotion so your last sentence makes no sense to me, especially as he has another years experience behind him now.

 

[TWOCHOICEStom]

He's good and he's steadily getting better. Remeber he's only twenty three!

 

[blockhseagull]

It all depends on how Oscar sets his side up.

If as expected he plays similar to his last role then Barnes could struggle for game time competing with CMS for back up striker behind Ulloa.

 

[Mellotron]

Are you saying that for the last 2 years Gus could have been getting a lot more out of him up front but chose not to do that?

When Barnes has played up front in the Championship he's been guilty of some shocking misses, and even by CMS's standards Barnes looked woefully short of confidence on a number of occasions. Gus managed this pretty well by giving him a roving midfield role and telling him to get forward when he could, ergo he picks up 10 goals a season and puts in a shift.

But that touch in front of goal worries me. I think Gus got the max out of him, I think he can sustain that level in the Championship and he is still young, but I'd question whether he'd be more than a bit-part player in a Championship promotion side.

Eh? Pretty sure the stats show that he is FAR less wasteful than CMS in front of goal. He always creates far more chances for himself by virtue of having a footballing brain and far superior first touch to CMS. He's pretty clinical in front of goal generally.

 

[somerset]

Got even the mention of Barnes will wake a lot of people up


look out here comes SOMERSET

......and another thing...!

You will notice that Kumquat wants the stats massaged to remove any negative Barnes edge....I will say no more.

 

[Acker79]

Eh? Pretty sure the stats show that he is FAR less wasteful than CMS in front of goal. He always creates far more chances for himself by virtue of having a footballing brain and far superior first touch to CMS. He's pretty clinical in front of goal generally.

According to my records:

2011-12
Barnes
Shots 79
Goals 14
1 in 5.64

CMS
Shots 81
Goals 10
1 in 8.10

2012-13
Barnes
Shots 61
Goals 9
1 in 6.78

CMS
Shots 47
Goals 11
1 in 4.27


Overall
Barnes
Shots 140
Goals 23
1 in 6.09

CMS
Shots 128
Goals 21
1 in 6.10

 

[Brighton Breezy]

According to my records:

2011-12
Barnes
Shots 79
Goals 14
1 in 5.64

CMS
Shots 81
Goals 10
1 in 8.10

2012-13
Barnes
Shots 61
Goals 9
1 in 6.78

CMS
Shots 47
Goals 11
1 in 4.27


Overall
Barnes
Shots 140
Goals 23
1 in 6.09

CMS
Shots 128
Goals 21
1 in 6.10

I like to look at how high a ratio of shots a player has got on target and forced a save to judge how accurate a striker is.

According to the Football League Stats Centre this season (league only):

Barnes: 28 on target. 28 off target. Therefore 50% of his shots hit the target. Overall scoring to shot rate is eight goals from 56 shots, or a goal from roughly 14% of his overall efforts.

Mackail-Smith: 28 on target. 20 off target. Around 58% of shots therefore force a save, block etc. Overall scoring to shot rate is 11 goals from 48 shots, or a goal from 22% of his attempts.

CMS also only played in 29 league games this last season. That means he scores a goal roughly every two and a half games. Barnes' ratio is around a goal every four games.

Of course, Barnes has not played in the central striking slot anywhere near as often as CMS and Barnes' shots are probably coming from further out and from wider areas so more likely to miss the target.