[Finance] Autumn Buget 2021

[Pavilionaire]

I find these things baffling. The labour person sounded genuinely angry. It will probably take a week to work out what's what.

But I agree, Sunak is impressive.

There is a difference between sounding impressive and being impressive. He talks a good talk, I'll give him that. But inflation is climbing, with prices for basics outstripping wage increases and all this talk of growth but no people with the skills to take up any extra jobs created.

Seriously - how can your economy grow when energy prices are at a record high, when goods can't reliably be delivered and when there are key shortages and bottlenecks in the labour market?

Britain will muddle through, but with one hand tied behind our backs.

 

[beorhthelm]

Did he say where he found the magic money tree?


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its left over from the pandemic response. i think the slight of hand is that so much was spent he last year, spending can be loosened and still look relatively tight. debt to GDP will be much lower even if there is far more spending than would have been compared to 2019.

 

[GT49er]

Just from looking at the BBC summary, it looks quite impressive (as has Sunak as Chancellor generally). Do wonder where the money is going to come from though, bearing in mind the transitional cost of the B word and the far greater cost of the Covid plague. Hope it's not just smoke and mirrors.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Did he say where he found the magic money tree?


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[MENTION=2719]Mouldy Boots[/MENTION] has got it. Apparently he’s footing the bill.


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[raymondo]

As an accountant I'm struggling to recall a Budget so light on personal tax measures.

With record borrowing after the ravages of Covid it is simply staggering taxpayers are still paying a top rate of 20% tax on all Capital Gains (excluding residential property).

HMRC data shows 9,000 people paid just £5.1bn in tax on £33.7bn of capital gains income in the latest financial year available. That works out at an average tax rate of 14.8%, lower than than the basic rate income tax of 20% that people pay on salaries of between £12,571 and £50,270 or - in reality - 32% if you factor in the Class 1 NI employees also pay.

The freezing of CGT tax rates tells you all you need to know about this government.

Thank you.

 

[amexer]

I think they were on a hiding to nothing on this forum whatever they did

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Don't know to be honest, I carried on working, paying my taxes same as ever whoever is in power to fair.
same old shite different name.

Let's take this to the bear pit.

I am intrigued by your signature
"The true measure of any society can be found in how it treats its most vulnerable members. Mahatma Gandhi"

Is this the same fella who believed in the Aryan brotherhood, which involved whites and Indians higher up than Africans on the civilised scale ? The same fella who complained to the British the Kaffirs should not be allowed to mix with Indians ?

I agree with the sentence not the speaker.

You didn't feel any ill effects from austerity but things did take a massive turn for the worse. Over 50% of magistrates courts were closed down, there was a failed attempt to privatise the Probation service, 21000 fewer police officers, the CPS completely wrecked (I would say decimated but that would imply one in ten was lost, when in fact it was one in three) so even before covid hit, cases were taking nearly two years to come to court. Victims and witnesses gave up on getting justice for any crimes committed. Now it is over three years. The Criminal Justice System has been run into the ground since 2010.

 

[Eeyore]

Just from looking at the BBC summary, it looks quite impressive (as has Sunak as Chancellor generally). Do wonder where the money is going to come from though, bearing in mind the transitional cost of the B word and the far greater cost of the Covid plague. Hope it's not just smoke and mirrors.

Sunak has been more of a Socialist chancellor. In fact, I can't really get my head round this government. They seem to re-wrap themselves in an 'all things' wrapper.

If the opposition had followed the Tory path they would have been in deep trouble. Remember 2019 when the Tory manifesto kept adding pledges to trump Labour whilst the media laid into them.

It's just nuts really. And folk just digest it.

To be honest, I'm not sure Labour could do any better right now. But when a political group condemns a certain type of economic approach, whilst systematically condemning its promotion from another political group, you have to wonder why folk just nod and say 'carry on'.

Johnson is the most untrustworthy leader, and this the most oddest of cabinets, I can remember. But I think they'll still be here in five years time. The media will see to that.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Just from looking at the BBC summary, it looks quite impressive (as has Sunak as Chancellor generally). Do wonder where the money is going to come from though, bearing in mind the transitional cost of the B word and the far greater cost of the Covid plague. Hope it's not just smoke and mirrors.

The government can always find money, when it wants. It isn't like housekeeping where you can only spend what comes in. The Bank of England can print money, which can cause inflation but that is a risk.
The example being the NHS workers told there is no magic money tree when within a year, the DUP were given £1 billion.

 

[Eeyore]

The government can always find money, when it wants. It isn't like housekeeping where you can only spend what comes in. The Bank of England can print money, which can cause inflation but that is a risk.
The example being the NHS workers told there is no magic money tree when within a year, the DUP were given £1 billion.

Honestly, I've given up trying to understand it.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Come on TB, surely even your tunnel vision can expand a bit to take it a wider picture, that would be growth, promise and sparkling wine.

Actually the Visigoths, destroyed Rome.

The thing that worries me most is the increasingly large difference between three times the average salary and the entry level cost of buying a home. Even a flat. My parents bought a bungalow in Rottingdean in 1958, shortly before I was born. They had both been working and saving for five years. They never had any spare cash till the mid 60s when we had our first summer holiday (in a self catering hut in Ringwood). But it was all possible, without bank of mum and dad. That trajectory started to become an impossibility for more and more people from the late 80s. Now the entry level property round here is 15 times my son's annual salary, and his rent eats up much of what he earns. Bank of dad may be able to help him, but it will be a tight squeeze. I bought my place in 89, just getting in under the wire. There will need to be a hell of a lot of levelling up before we get back to the opportunities of decades ago. There was a poster on here some months ago who was seriously distressed about being able to buy a home. Quite depressing stuff to read....

That said, home ownership isn't a 'thing' in Germany. Sometimes I wonder whether we are simply looking at things in a funny way. I really don't know any more.

Labour have dropped all that Corbyn nonsense, but I'm not yet sure what it has replaced this with. I rejoined the party after Starmer became leader, and I appreciate it is a marathon not a sprint to the next general election, but I am really not yet seeing what the labour plan is. The income-home ownership gap didn't fall under Blair to any meaningful degree; just as my ability to pay my mortgage recovered from the Lawson bust and negative equity, the market value of my home tripled in a few years - great for me possibly, but not for new buyers. But....it is a market, so prices must reflect demand and the ability of a sufficient number of people to buy. And most buying seems to be for ownership rather than rent. One house on my street is rented but only because the owner dies and the relatives haven't yet engage with the process of selling. So a meaningful number of people must still be able to access the property market, or it would have collapsed (as it did in Vancouver in the late 70s).

Despite my misgivings about Boris I'm sure I don't know how to run the country. It is easy to criticise (and I have done - loads) but at the end of the day, we live in interesting times.....It is hard to tell what's round the corner. There have only been three periods of labour government in my lifetime and while I don't see them as the disasters some see them (certainly not Blair's three terms) we hardly stepped into a brave new world based on socialist principles. I appreciate that some people (one of my brothers in particular) claim this is because we have never had a proper socialist government. I don't really see that as an argument - we haven't had a fascist government either but I don't fancy giving it a go. What is 'socialist' anyway? Everybody earns the same and lives in the same type of house? No, we are stuck with a choice between something a bit left of centre versus something a bit right of centre, with much of policy being around small differences in emphasis and small margins. Probably rightly so. So there are limits to what Boris can do, and it is still early days.

And in politics, unfortunately, a lot of it is about keeping in with the electorate, not frightening the voters, and therefore compromising. All the main parties accept the free market model, with differences in tweaks, and it is really hard for the electorate to know what is in its best interest. Thatcher/Major was a disaster for me, personally, and my life was transformed during the Blair years. For others it will be different, and so the old confirmation biases will convince us, based on our experience that one party may be miles better than the other. The older I get the less sure I become.

Oh well.

There is no need for this thread to be bear-pitted I don't think.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

Can't see a single thread, if I missed it please merge.


So what do you think guys, did Rishi come good?


**Budget.......too much cider and sparkling wine being consumed.

It depends whether you believe what these people say and if what they say actually comes to fruition. VERY easy to promise the world – that's partly how this mob got back in – and then go back on the promises made.

Personally I'm of the opinion that the vast majority of politicians are in it for themselves, so whatever they implement help them first and foremost. Will things get dramatically better in this country anytime soon? Probably not. Will people vote for the other lot in the hope that things might change? Doubtful. I'm basically resigned to years of people frothing on both sides and the arguments never actually moving on. Which is probably the same as it always has been and always will be

 

[Audax]

fuel duty hasn't been cut, supposedly automatic rise frozen again. yes, it is incompatible with climate change agenda, but it hurt peoples pocket in a very visable way so sensitive, and is inflationary. we're going to see a lot more of this difficult juggling, green is expensive.

It's a really shite tax as well. When was the last time it wasn't actually frozen and actually got increased automatically as it is designed to do? I can't remember off the top of my head. With prices at the pump at record highs already, it wouldn't have been a good look to then up the fuel duty on top of that.

Also, for anyone who isn't aware: the Fuel Duty is applied before VAT, and then VAT is applied against the post-Fuel Duty price. So the government is double dipping: the amount of VAT you pay gets increased every time they increase the Fuel Duty. If Fuel Duty went up by say 2p, the actual at-pump increase would be 2.4p once the VAT was applied.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Come on TB, surely even your tunnel vision can expand a bit to take it a wider picture, that would be growth, promise and sparkling wine.

Actually the Visigoths, destroyed Rome.

The Romans destroyed Rome (civil wars etc). The Goths just finished the job off.You can also add in climate issues as well.


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[Official Old Man]

Whatever happened to cigarettes?
In the golden oldie days the highlight of a budget was how much he was going to increase beer, spirits and cigarettes
Now he's taken 3p a pint off beer, which we wont notice and probably means a meagre £30 to a small pub.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Sunak has been more of a Socialist chancellor. In fact, I can't really get my head round this government. They seem to re-wrap themselves in an 'all things' wrapper.

If the opposition had followed the Tory path they would have been in deep trouble. Remember 2019 when the Tory manifesto kept adding pledges to trump Labour whilst the media laid into them.

It's just nuts really. And folk just digest it.

To be honest, I'm not sure Labour could do any better right now. But when a political group condemns a certain type of economic approach, whilst systematically condemning its promotion from another political group, you have to wonder why folk just nod and say 'carry on'.

Johnson is the most untrustworthy leader, and this the most oddest of cabinets, I can remember. But I think they'll still be here in five years time. The media will see to that.

Only the electorate can see to that.

I hated the Sun and Times during the Thatcher era but, blimey, labour were a mess. 'No compromise with the electrorate'. I used to think that thick people read the Sun which told them to vote tory, so they did. In many respects that is a terribly defeatist attitude. Rather than finding new ways to avoid compromising with the electorate, labour eventually realised that government is a partnership between a party and the people. Blair, Mandleson and Campbell understood that. Clearly many MPs in the labour party did not, and that included the clown who eventually emerged as the leader (Corbyn). To be elected you have to bring along the middle ground, the floating voter or you wont get elected. Some in labour are still sneering at the white van man. So the white van man says "eff off, I'm voting for the other lot". That is a view that has become entrenched among many voters and will keep labour on the opposition benches if it persists.

The middle ground of the elctorate are socially conservative, and don't generally like risking too much change, so they instinctively prefer the incumbents (better the devil you know), and, as has been often said, oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them. Keep enough people onside and once you get into power you may get enough time to pursue a plan. Without that you sit on the opposition benches inventing new policies without ever being able to implement them. And then you get bored and start plotting internal rebellion (well, Momemum does). Nobody wants to see that. Labour need a couple of years without internal distraction, and without any more shrill outburst from 'tory-scum' haters. Meanwhile the tories have a free run, which is likely to end only if the modern day equivalent of 'streets piled with rubbish*' and 'everybody on strike' becomes the norm.

*Ooops! Brighton

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

There is a difference between sounding impressive and being impressive. He talks a good talk, I'll give him that. But inflation is climbing, with prices for basics outstripping wage increases and all this talk of growth but no people with the skills to take up any extra jobs created.

Seriously - how can your economy grow when energy prices are at a record high, when goods can't reliably be delivered and when there are key shortages and bottlenecks in the labour market?

Britain will muddle through, but with one hand tied behind our backs.

If you're right, and HMG are now surfing on hubris, and bad things start to affect enough people, then Starmer has a chance next time. Unlike one or two I know I am not going to wish for disaster just to see the Back of Boris, though. I hope the Sunak plan works. Too many people have been struggling.

Whatever one's view about Boris, nothing can be changed till the next general election. I am not in favour of coups, and marches and protests (accompanied by the many red and black Socialist Worker banners) are not going to sway the minds of those who feel that things are as good as they can be after a pandemic and during the early disruptive years after Brexit.

We are going to have to lump it for a bit, and hope that Starmer and co can come up with some tunes that attract enough of us to whistle along to. A significant proportion of the electorate has long since decided that it doesn't mind that Boris is a bit of a lying cad. The man and his doings is no longer a viable target for labour attack. Think about that!

 

[beorhthelm]

Honestly, I've given up trying to understand it.

its simple, they couldnt find several billion of new recurring spending for nurses, they could find 1 billion by shuffling things, bringing spending forward and put a bow on it for Northern Ireland.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

It depends whether you believe what these people say and if what they say actually comes to fruition. VERY easy to promise the world – that's partly how this mob got back in – and then go back on the promises made.

Personally I'm of the opinion that the vast majority of politicians are in it for themselves, so whatever they implement help them first and foremost. Will things get dramatically better in this country anytime soon? Probably not. Will people vote for the other lot in the hope that things might change? Doubtful. I'm basically resigned to years of people frothing on both sides and the arguments never actually moving on. Which is probably the same as it always has been and always will be

I disagree. I suspect that most MPs are in it to make a difference. The venal ones have to be very careful or they come a cropper eventually. I think it is worse in science than in politcs, where people can cheat and get away with it as long as they don't step on anyone's toes.

I also think it is dangerous to start thinking that all politicians are the same. Yes our system is adversarial, but it seems less so today than when I first recall hearing PMQs on the radio. It was relentless barracking during the Thatcher era, with lots of sneering and lots of anger. The trajectory is towards better behaviour. It still isn't great, but we live in hope. Well, I do.

The art of the possible.....with the fuel being the ability to persuade. I don't see any frothing from Starmer, and many people dislike him for that, which suggests to me that you can't please everyone.

 

[Insel affe]

I agree with the sentence not the speaker.

Good man

You didn't feel any ill effects from austerity but things did take a massive turn for the worse. Over 50% of magistrates courts were closed down, there was a failed attempt to privatise the Probation service, 21000 fewer police officers, the CPS completely wrecked (I would say decimated but that would imply one in ten was lost, when in fact it was one in three) so even before covid hit, cases were taking nearly two years to come to court. Victims and witnesses gave up on getting justice for any crimes committed. Now it is over three years. The Criminal Justice System has been run into the ground since 2010.

To be totally honest no, I have been in my own little bubble, I have luckily not needed the police, probation services for quite some time, or been to court for that matter personally. My brother is a policeman, and he says it was it is, the politicians have all done them over on budgets and targets for years, no matter which council or government is in charge and as he sees it day in day out, so I will take his word for it, not to say this lot in charge are better but are they really any worse.

Anyway, I hate politics, so I will leave it right there, have a good evening young Mr Thunderbolt