[Football] Arsenal more likely to beat us than Chelsea?

[ConfusedGloryHunter]

According to the percentages on here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/65229571

Can anyone explain to me the "science" behind this?

 

[Rodney Thomas]

Errrr, they are top of the league?

Edit - You mean City not Chelsea. I guess they have few points and more games to play (CL and FA Cup)

 

[Icy Gull]

I take heart from Arsenal starting games at 100 miles an hour, taking 2-0 leads and not being able to hold onto them now they are starting to choke

 

[ConfusedGloryHunter]

Errrr, they are top of the league?

Edit - You mean City not Chelsea. I guess they have few points and more games to play (CL and FA Cup)

No, I mean the percentage chance for Arsenal to beat Chelsea is 59% but the percentage chance that Arsenal beat us is 65%. Both are home games for Arsenal so how have the experts of Nielsen's Gracenote worked that out?

 

[BNthree]

No, I mean the percentage chance for Arsenal to beat Chelsea is 59% but the percentage chance that Arsenal beat us is 65%. Both are home games for Arsenal so how have the experts of Nielsen's Gracenote worked that out?

You’ll probably need to ask statistician or actuary. The sort of people that work at StarLizard working out probabilities.

 

[ConfusedGloryHunter]

You’ll probably need to ask statistician or actuary. The sort of people that work at StarLizard working out probabilities.

I suspect StarLizard make their money from the sort of numpties that follow Nielsen's Gracenote wisdom!

 

[Cowfold Seagull]

No, I mean the percentage chance for Arsenal to beat Chelsea is 59% but the percentage chance that Arsenal beat us is 65%. Both are home games for Arsenal so how have the experts of Nielsen's Gracenote worked that out?

Well what is true is that London derby games, derbies generally perhaps, are always difficult to call. The unexpeced result often happens.

 

[Sheebo]

Chelsea have (on paper) better players in every position… actually do they? Money and wages don’t mean better stats. Nah scrap that - it makes little sense.

 

[Sheebo]

I think 56% Man City beat us at the Amex is well low. I see it more like 85%.

 

[Cowfold Seagull]

I think 56% Man City beat us at the Amex is well low. I see it more like 85%.

Maybe not 85%, but definately more than 56%.

 

[Bodian]

Chelsea will have a 'big club' factor taken into account in their percentages!

 

[OzMike]

Brighton: Just how good are Roberto De Zerbi's side?

As expected, the best team in the league will likely settle the title race. Unexpectedly, it could be argued that Brighton are that team.

www.sportinglife.com

 

[zefarelly]

I take heart from Arsenal starting games at 100 miles an hour, taking 2-0 leads and not being able to hold onto them now they are starting to choke

I'm of the thinking we can do them with relentless pressure, they were a bit lucky to win at ours. . . . Also . . . If we beat them, Man City will let us win the cup.

 

[Icy Gull]

Brighton: Just how good are Roberto De Zerbi's side?

As expected, the best team in the league will likely settle the title race. Unexpectedly, it could be argued that Brighton are that team.

www.sportinglife.com

I am unable to process and believe all that

It’s just mind blowing. Beating both City and Arsenal and having a say in the title is the stuff of dreams, I cannot see it happening, but I know we’ll give it a bloody good go.

 

[ConfusedGloryHunter]

Also . . . If we beat them, Man City will let us win the cup.

This I doubt, since we will also beat City in the league, no?

 

[zefarelly]

This I doubt, since we will also beat City in the league, no?

Probably not, I'll ask Tony, and check with PGMOL.

Back in a mo.