Are we more likely to be promoted or relegated next season?

[Perfidious Albion]

So much negativity here..... If you asked me if ,say, Reading were candidates for promotion or relegation - I could give a rational answer. But this is Brighton, and we are supporters....Right?
No army going into battle will ever win unless they believe that they can. So I believe that we are going to have a good season and claim our rightful place near the top of this division.
Keep the faith

 

[chaileyjem]

If only we had a manager and a core group of players used to campaigns where they've got teams promoted into the prem or helped teams into the top 6.
People like chris Hughton and players like Bruno, Greer, Calde, ince, JFC, lua lua, dunk, and crofts. Oh well.

 

[Dolph Ins]

Even if we do not sign any new players, according to the stats, we will not be relegated. Samii was naive at the start of last season and we (especially the forwards) lost our confidence going forward. The differences in this league are so small that I believe we could be (not will be) top 6 with this squad.

Having said that it appears we have not yet spent all the money we received for Ulloa, Buckley, Bridcutt and we have freed up a lot of wages by loosing CMS, Kemy, etc. So I expect we will make a signing that will excite (most) of us but if it excites us it will excite other teams, so we will loose some of our targets. Doesn't that mean we are being ambitious rather than incompetent. As for the 'fans' who think Tony is lining his pockets, you are right up there with the 9/11 and moon landing conspiracy theorists.

 

[Cheshire]

Looking at the three clubs that finished above the relegation zone since season 2011, and their league position the following season.

Over this four season period 5 of the 12 clubs involved went on to be relegated the next season, and maybe not too surprisingly none went on to be promoted. The relegated clubs were Barnsley, Bristol City, Doncaster, Millwall and Blackpool.

The average position for the 12 clubs involved was 18th the next season, with only 3 clubs finishing the next season in the top half; Forest 8th position season ending 2013, having been 19th season ending 2012, Birmingham 10th this season, having been 21st season ending 2014, and Derby 12th season ending 2012, after being 19th season ending 2011.

Therefore, the last four seasons stats answer to the question is we are more likely to be relegated than promoted, but the question should really be relegation or survival, and there the stats give a more encouraging position.

However,as we all know a good recruitment summer for player additions and we could all have reason to be more positive - and throw the stats out of the window!!

 

[8ace]

13/2 to be promoted
6/1 to be relegated

 

[Justice]

Its football anything can happen all it takes is the club to find one gem another Zamora and its all to play for again.

 

[El Sid]

The return of Zamora, Murray and the two Bennetts along with a tasty centre back from Eastern Europe will see us walk the league.

A new Vicente would be the cherry on top of the icing.

Happy days!

 

[B.W.]

Cannot answer the question at this stage. Definitely depends on player recruitment in the close season... sorry...

 

[Worried Man Blues]

Absolutely as middle of the table as you can get, pulling out splinters. Lowest goals for and against, most nil alls. Unless of course we go large.......................

 

[BUTTERBALL]

The squad needs a serious overhaul. There is an ageing defence and despite the players released, is nowhere near good enough to mount a challenge in it's present state. We need a few more 'out's' and plenty of quality 'in's'

 

[phoenix]

I feel 9th - 16th is a realistic option, so neither really.

I totally agree with the Prince on this one.!

 

[Phat Baz 68]

Far more likely to be UP than DOWN, but, IMHO neither about 10th-12th

 

[OzMike]

Promoted.

 

[Del Fenner]

Premature to ask this question until Hughton has assembled his squad for the new season. But I'd be amazed if after 18 months with him at the helm you were in the relegation zone.