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Are we all heading for economic disaster?
- Thread starter chimneys
- Start date
kingcole
Well-known member
Gold is at it's highest ever. Surely the boat has been missed here.
If Hyper inflation does come along (at this time I think we could actually be heading for deflation in another 12 months) could you explain how you would escape it, if you were not in a big city?
Would central Brighton have a different rate of inflation to say, Ditchling?
cannedheat
Banned
It's all Mossads fault were doomed i tell ye were doomed.
Ding Dong !
Boy I'm HOT today !
My pf is looking like a blood bath. Looks like I'm going to be tied into the shares I have for at least 6-12 months. Hey ho !!!
"missing the boat" is you thinking about yourself and not the grand scheme of things.......this is what got us into this massive mess in the first place...people thinking about only themselves.
hyper inflation is not an if, but a when - i do not understand your view of economics - money is worth less every day and as oil will soon go up (hyper inflation) then cities will feel the pinch more - e.g. oil to transport food and goods to a few thousand is easier than to a few million.
i am not talking about the price of a mars bar going up - i am talking about things out of the 'nations' control - already china and russia have stopped trading oil in $ dollars - this has not been mentioned in the media and is SO IMPORTANT to what is possibly coming.
[MENTION=5122]cannedheat[/MENTION] - threads have titles, please post anything to do with another thread in the corresponding thread - the whole point of a forum really.
We are miles off the widely accepted technical definition of what level of inflation constitutes 'hyper' inflation as a technical term.
KZNSeagull
Well-known member
I had dinner the other night with one of SA's most respected Economists and whilst we did not discuss things in depth, he basically said that countries like SA and Australia are in a good position at the moment because of their links with the East and that they have commodities to sell.
SA's banks were not badly affected by the troubles (other than Standard Bank as they had significant operations in the west) as the chief regulator here acts like an "old woman", which is a good thing when things are bad. His prognosis for SA is reasonably positive providing certain political things do not happen, particularly nationalisation of the mines which would be a complete disaster (FDI into SA this year is down 70% just because the chairman of the ANC Youth League has been shouting his mouth off about it).
Gold is a safe haven. The perceived value of paper money is going down. It does not matter that gold is at it's highest price ever, it will still be tradeable in 10 years time. Who knows, Dollars may not be.
So the UK may be f*cked, but others in the world should be OK!! Sorry about that.
SA's banks were not badly affected by the troubles (other than Standard Bank as they had significant operations in the west) as the chief regulator here acts like an "old woman", which is a good thing when things are bad. His prognosis for SA is reasonably positive providing certain political things do not happen, particularly nationalisation of the mines which would be a complete disaster (FDI into SA this year is down 70% just because the chairman of the ANC Youth League has been shouting his mouth off about it).
Gold is a safe haven. The perceived value of paper money is going down. It does not matter that gold is at it's highest price ever, it will still be tradeable in 10 years time. Who knows, Dollars may not be.
So the UK may be f*cked, but others in the world should be OK!! Sorry about that.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,015
nor i yours, though the video tells a few tales. the thing is that if the world goes into recession, the price of oil drops as no one wants the goods so demand for oil, both industrial, manufactoring and by proxy transportation, falls. if the US $ collapses, thats poor for US inflation, but not so much for other nations with other currencies that will inherently appreciate in value and buy more $ based goods. this is apparently alot to do with the current prices of some commodities itself, as those in countries with strong $/currency rates can buy relativly cheaply. but what use are those cheap commodities when the consumption stops? we'd probably see a sharp reversal in prices. anyway, seen the price of oil? sideways for months and dropped of today along with just about everything else (one notable exception the only thing really inflating)
on that video, i note 3 and 6 slightly contradict rather than reinforce (both bonds and oil increase demand for $, the former more due to US balance of trade issues: the "fact" is superficial.), and generally ignores the wider complexities of economies. interestingly it ignored the oil source for those materials that go into agri-business which is probably greater value than the transportation cost of their distribution. transportation costs are a fraction of goods value, thats why its cheaper to ship goods from china/india, which have to have the raw materials shipped to them in the first place, or my favorite, buy paper produced in australian rather than norwegian.
Last edited:
melias shoes
Well-known member
- Oct 14, 2010
- 4,830
Yes
Beach Hut
Brighton Bhuna Boy
It will get better but I think the Euro may well end up being abandoned
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,015
reading the runes, it seems they are very very determined to not let this happen. they are talking about the opposite direction, integrating further to have fiscal union. of course, the german population dont like that at all, so it remains to be seen how far that will get and how soon. can they force through new changes to the Euro agreements or do Italy/Spain default. if they default first, to save face the Euro will remain for northern nations.
Beach Hut
Brighton Bhuna Boy
I really think the stronger Euro countries will walk and the Germans will be first
larus
Well-known member
The problem is that what the Eurozone politicians 'agree' at these summits, and then announce to the world that the crisis has been solved, invariably only lasts a few days until the markets crunch the numbers and expose the weaknesses.
Also, what the leaders agree at these meetings often needs to be ratified by their parliaments. Merkel is on dangerous ground; the constitution/agreement for Germany when they entered the Euro was no bailouts. This is happening, and has recently been challenged in the German courts. I read something a few weeks back which implied that if the current case failed but there were further bailouts resulting in write-downs of Greek debt, then this would cause a constitutional problem in Germany.
Another thing which is often overlook is that the 'weak' countried have to bear some of the cost for bailing out other countries. So, perversely, Ireland is on the hook for the potential losses if Greece defaults, etc, etc.
I totally discount ANYTHING which is being spouted off by the Euro leaders, as EVERYTHING which they have said relating to this crisis has been proved to be WRONG. We are still in the same credit event from 2008. All that has happened is that it has moved from a bank debt problem to a sovereign debt problem.
Last point; even with all of this QE which has been carried out by the US, their growth is next to nothing (0.1% in Q2 I think), and they can't create jobs.
I have just sold my house and am going to rent. I am convinced the Uncle C's prediction of a house price correction will happen.
Beach Hut
Brighton Bhuna Boy
Not convinced there will be a property crash however if the is my mortgage is way lower than 50% of the property value at present so should not really make any difference.
Besides a property crash means all prices drop so the only I will go now is downsizing.
Besides a property crash means all prices drop so the only I will go now is downsizing.
Caveman
Well-known member
- Jul 14, 2003
- 9,926
I feel your pain.
larus
Well-known member
We need house prices to be sensible. A drop of about 1/3 would be in the best interests of the country (long-term).
Of couse, this would cause a lot of pain short-term, but the current financial model built on debt is insane.
brightn'ove
cringe
i think our economic situation is best displayed by this video.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,015
with one notable exception, when the EC president warns member countries to back the Euro to avoid debt crisis spreading. nice way to spook the markets.
larus
Well-known member
The problem is that they are continually contradicting each other and can't get a policy in place. This is not going to change as the national interest will eventually over-sire the Euro interest.
German taxpayers will refuse to pay for the Greeks to have cushy jobs and retire at 50, when they're working until 65.