Are the Tories looking the likely winners at the next election?

[Sarisbury Seagull]

Whilst traditionally a Tory voter I really am not sure who I would vote for now. Not overly impressed with the performance of the governement at all.

The problem is though who to vote for. The opposition are incredibly weak, no policies or ideas of any substance that would make a difference to where we are at the moment and a terrible leader. I've watched the last couple of PMQ's and his performance was embarassing, Cameron and the coalition are there for the taking but he and his party don't seem capable of making the most of their opportunity. I have no confidence that if Labour were to get in next time that things would improve and would probably expect the deficit to increase again.

 

[Don Quixote]

I don't really want a Labour government again, not after the last showing anyway. If the opinion polls are correct it looks like that is what we might be getting. I fear for this country.

Do you really think it makes a difference?

 

[slartibartfast]

I think David Cameron is just a big lump - he was shyte for us at Withdean, played just the one good game v Lincoln, and he's been shyte as PM too.

 

[Biscuit]

Woah there hang on a second, here's a few facts you forgot to list:

The Tories are cutting FIFTEEN THOUSAND Police Officers by 2015..
Over FIVE AND A HALF THOUSAND Nurses lost since the last GE.
Working families are losing £279 a year while millionaires got an average tax cut of £107,500.

 

[Common as Mook]

Woah there hang on a second, here's a few facts you forgot to list:

The Tories are cutting FIFTEEN THOUSAND Police Officers by 2015..
Over FIVE AND A HALF THOUSAND Nurses lost since the last GE.
Working families are losing £279 a year while millionaires got an average tax cut of £107,500.

Do millionaires not work then?

 

[OurPrice]

interesting one. local councils have always been responsible for local planning. central government doesnt direct housing, thats done by private devepolers or the local councils in their strategic planning, any councils not giving planning are using the same powers they had. so this is bollocks.

housing is stuck because of mortgages, beacuse the banks dont want to lend and/or people arent less certain of borrowing, combined with developers that want to make inappropriate houses (ie large 4 bed homes where 1-2 bed homes are needed) or have stock left to sell.

No its not really bollocks. I agree that local councils have always been difficult when it comes to granting planning permission, as Councillors make the controversial decisions, and they want to win votes and stay elected, and as such they will decide applications broadly in line with what their constitutents want, but they always knew that is push comes to shove they would have to approve housing eventually - but with the intro of localism it justified them being even MORE difficult. Councillors suddenly had central Government support to say "no" to housing - so this is what they did.

Now the Coalition have realised that planning permissions have not been getting through and are attempting to remedy the situation, in a pro-growth way, via new strategic/national level policies - i.e. the change to permitted development rights that comes in a couple of months that will allow you to change your office into residential, without the need for planning; and the National Planning Policy Framework that came in last year, which put more pressure on Councils that are not delivering sufficient housing permissions.

In terms of demand for housing, this is limited due to the banks/mortgage situation. But the fact is that the population of the country is continuing to grow rapidly, and at a rate that is not reflected even closely with the amount of new housing being built.

Your last comment on the size of houses that are being built being too large, I am afraid that this likely down to the fact that the people who can afford to buy a new house are those already on the property ladder and who wish to upgrade their 4-bed detached to a 5-bed detached. This is where the market is, and this is safe for developers. To build smaller units for people who cannot get a mortgage would not make commercial sense. Having said that, I am aware of certain developers who are focussing on building flats in good areas of Brighton/London and then selling them to investors (who see this as a better return mechanism than sitting their money in a low/no interest account), who take advantage of the good rental market.

 

[Albumen]

The tories still arent blaming Labour are they? Jesus.
Unfortunately at the moment I don't see the opposition with the little twerp getting in, despite the utter disgusting carnage the tories are creating. Labour need a new leader and quick and the Tories are there to be had.

 

[Postman Pat]

The problem is though who to vote for. The opposition are incredibly weak, no policies or ideas of any substance that would make a difference to where we are at the moment and a terrible leader. I've watched the last couple of PMQ's and his performance was embarassing, Cameron and the coalition are there for the taking but he and his party don't seem capable of making the most of their opportunity. I have no confidence that if Labour were to get in next time that things would improve and would probably expect the deficit to increase again.

What he said.....

In addition, the Lib Dems have alienated all their support by siding with the Tory's, I won't vote for a single issue party such as UKIP and as for the Greens......

 

[Seagull over Canaryland]

With the Coalition not getting the tax receipts it hopes for because there isn't enough growth in the UK economy it is unable to pay down the deficit at the rate it wants and is having to borrow more than planned. This means it does not have the funding to commit to even more major public projects to help the economy.

If Labour hope to get elected next time it would be rather ironic if they inherit a huge deficit, the bulk of which was incurred under them. Plus having sold off a big chunk of our gold reserves and raided various pensions pots labour won't find it easy to make big promises about public spending, or changes to benefits and taxes. I can still see Labour benefitting from a fracture in the Coalition, a big decline in the LibDems and UKIP stealing support from the Tories, so I fear that Labour will get in by default.

 

[beorhthelm]

The tories still arent blaming Labour are they? Jesus.

it is annoying, though to be fair the previous government were doing it for 11 years.

Labour do certainly need a leader, otherwise we're heading for another hung parliament imo.

 

[soistes]

Do millionaires not work then?

Some do, some don't. Either way, they should pay their wack in taxes

 

[goldstone]

The Tories achilles heel(s):
- immigration. Not enough done to stem the flow
- overseas aid. Needs to be drastically cut, not increased.
- NHS reorganisation. Why keep changing things for change's sake? No thought about the cost.
- interference in foreign countries. Too slow to pull our troops out of Afghanistan.
- welfare. A mess. Too much paid out to thousands of lazy bastards.
- Europe. Another mess. Get us out.

 

[seagulls4ever]

UK Polling Report

 

[Common as Mook]

Some do, some don't. Either way, they should pay their wack in taxes

I agree.

Just pulling Biscuit up on a massive generalisation.

 

[brightn'ove]

Cuts have affected the middle class the hardest, these people are the swing voters so if the situation is the same as it is now I can see them shifting to labour, it won't be a landslide in either direction though.

 

[withdeanwombat]

Look,I'm just about to go on holiday and I don't need these scare threads to spoil things.

No,the coalition hasn't got much right,so witness Cleggy trying to distance himself from the decisions made.

Yes,people vote for their own self interest,none more than the Tory grandees.

No,selfishness is not the way forward.

No,those hardly impacted by cuts should not be in charge of the cutting.

Great Scot ! There must be enough of us left to oust these incompetent,care-less merchants,and send them out looking for proper jobs.

Basically my answer is no.

Toodle pip.

 

[Cadiz Seagull]

Over the years, and I've seen a fair few now, the UK has tended to vote against a party rather than for one. In other words, if the Government is unpopular they will vote for the opposition, even though they may not really be any more popular.

With one proviso; the opposition must be seen to be creditable and electable. The Tories won a couple of elections simply because Labour was in disarray, not because the electorate preferred the Labour policies. And in the past Labour have won elections because the Tories looked a mess.

But I'm far from convinced that the current Labour party are seen as creditable and electable. To me they missed a trick when they rejected David Milliband in favour of Ed. It's too easy for the Tories to be able to depict Ed as being in bed with the unions, too old labour, and don't get me started on Ed Balls!

I think if David was the Labour leader then he would be a shoe in for the next Prime Minister, as he wouldn't frighten Middle England like his brother might. As it is he might have to wait until after the election to take over and then win the next one.

I suspect the Lib Dems will do badly being blamed - probably unfairly - for the coalition policies which (a) they didn't invent and (b) were probably necessary, but nobody ever said politics was supposed to be fair.

My own guess is that the Tories will get back in with an overall majority, especially if Cameron is able to renegotiate at least part of the deal with Europe.

But the election is a long way off. never forget two of the most appropriate quotations about politics - "A week is a long time in politics" and "Events dear boy, events"

The other factor in the Tories favour is the long time to go before the election. The chances are that things will probably be better then than they are now; maybe not a lot, and maybe not everywhere or everyone, but it is more likely they will be better than it is they will be worse. And voters have short memories.

 

[Glawstergull]

But the cuts haven't delivered the deficit reduction, and off today's results we face a triple dip recession and even some of the coalition are admitting they got the scale of the cuts wrong.

No good hypothesizing what Labour would have done, 3 years down the line and we are still in the shit!

To be far i don't think i'm really hypothesizing when Labour held Councils where still writing checks for massive projects just weeks before the Election knowing full well their wasn't the funds.

 

[Bold Seagull]

To be far i don't think i'm really hypothesizing when Labour held Councils where still writing checks for massive projects just weeks before the Election knowing full well their wasn't the funds.

Okay, keep the blinkers on and concentrate on the party that isn't in power.

I though we were discussing the coalition's performance?

 

[Tubby Mondays]

Seeing as CMD and Gideon couldn't get a majority against arguably the most unpopular PM ever in 2010 they have f*** all chance of winning the next election

Exactly correct!