Are the Tories looking the likely winners at the next election?

[abc]

Please note the thread title. This is a serious question and is not asking for the usual 'I hate Tories' binfest. Also I have no personal political allegiance but I think it's an interesting question.

A lot of things are going the coaltion's way now and by the time of the next election there may be a feeling that, as much as we might hate to admit it, they have got it more or less right. History shows we vote in self interest and if the economics of most people's households are looking reasonable they will vote for no change. Also they will not vote for the party who opposed every coaltion policy under these circumstances.

Where we are now:

1. Unemployment consistently falling, more people in work since 1971, full time jobs increasing, part time jobs reducing. Our unemployment rate 7.7% and falling, Spain 26% and rising
2. Growth. Still low but the IMF are now predicting we will be the only EU country showing growth in 2013 ( this includes Germany)
3. Interest rates forecast to stay at 0.5% for at least the next three years. Great for mortgage holders and business.
4. Inflation under control. Great for everyone except savers.
5. Welfare cuts and public sector cuts:whilst there is a lot of hand wringing in the media and on the left, the coalition's policies in these areas are (rightly or wrongly)incredibly popular with the majority of voters
6. UKIP: Cameron may well have neutralised this threat now
7. Crime: at records lows. People may ignore concerns about Police cuts because of this so will play well with 'middle england'.
8. Pensioners: actually doing rather well on the whole and they turn out well at elections. Likely to back the sitting government
9. Labour: no sign of a Tony Blair revival but rather leading in the polls because of dissatisfaction with the Coalition. If the Coalition's policies are perceived to have been right in a couple of years time then where does this leave Labour?


There will be and has always been at every election areas of the country and sections of the population that are seriously struggling but if the majority of the country are feeling things are getting better for themselves then the minorities are not large enough to change the result. Ultimately we are a self centred and selfish electorate.

If the above trends continue will the Tories and Libs be smiling?

 

[TSB]

No, no they aren't. Public sector cuts have wiped off support from a lot of independents and UKIP are nipping at their right flank. Thinks Davey Boy is stuck in the middle.

 

[OurPrice]

The localism agenda that the coalition has introduced has crippled housebuilding more than the economic downturn. "Localism" has resulted in Councils not granting planning permissions for new housing anywhere near the level needed (due to increased support for NIMBY's). It is well documented that housebuilding drives the economy, and my view is that the intro of localism by the Coalition has resulted in our economic condition being set back further. The coalition have evidently only just realised their error, but their previous actions (or lack of them) on this issue has certaintly delayed the recovery IMO. Although this is only one issue, I think it is a major one - so on 'Growth' I would have to say that they have not done us any favours whatsoever, and under Labours previous regime this would not have occurred.

 

[supaseagull]

This country has no economic leadership.

Cameron has been made to look an utter fool this week with his speech about North Africa, followed by the announcement of additional cuts to the army. We will have a smaller armed force than Algeria!

Osborne has now admitted that the current government should not have cut so hard and fast.

There's proof that the Unemployment and Crime figures have been "tailored" to show more favourable results...

Cameron has promised a European Referendum based upon a promise of a new deal for the UK from Europe, which the rest of Europe have said will never happen.

So with all this in mind, yes - The Tories will probably win the next election because the Sun will back them!

 

[Glawstergull]

The localism agenda that the coalition has introduced has crippled housebuilding more than the economic downturn. "Localism" has resulted in Councils not granting planning permissions for new housing anywhere near the level needed (due to increased support for NIMBY's). It is well documented that housebuilding drives the economy, and my view is that the intro of localism by the Coalition has resulted in our economic condition being set back further. The coalition have evidently only just realised their error, but their previous actions (or lack of them) on this issue has certaintly delayed the recovery IMO. Although this is only one issue, I think it is a major one - so on 'Growth' I would have to say that they have not done us any favours whatsoever, and under Labours previous regime this would not have occurred.

Sorry but that is utter rubbish.
The economical situation is not due to the lack of housebuilding.But the lack of housebuilding is due to economical situation.
That situation is due to people not spending because they don't have or can't borrow the money.

As an aside Labour would have continued to spend what they(we) haven't got.

 

[Camicus]

No not a hope in hell they trail by 12 points in the polls and thats been constant. Take in to account DC made the biggest announcment in ercent years and his poll rating actually dropped.

 

[glasfryn]

No, no they aren't. Public sector cuts have wiped off support from a lot of independents and UKIP are nipping at their right flank. Thinks Davey Boy is stuck in the middle.

spot on

 

[Deleted member 22389]

I don't really want a Labour government again, not after the last showing anyway. If the opinion polls are correct it looks like that is what we might be getting. I fear for this country.

 

[Bold Seagull]

As an aside Labour would have continued to spend what they(we) haven't got.

But the cuts haven't delivered the deficit reduction, and off today's results we face a triple dip recession and even some of the coalition are admitting they got the scale of the cuts wrong.

No good hypothesizing what Labour would have done, 3 years down the line and we are still in the shit!

 

[narly101]

If Labour get in next time, I'm emmigrating. Then you see what happens to the country......

 

[Deleted member 22389]

If Labour get in next time, I'm emmigrating. Then you see what happens to the country......

I would feel like doing the same.

 

[OurPrice]

Sorry but that is utter rubbish.
The economical situation is not due to the lack of housebuilding.But the lack of housebuilding is due to economical situation.
That situation is due to people not spending because they don't have or can't borrow the money.

As an aside Labour would have continued to spend what they(we) haven't got.

What I said was that the lack of housebuilding has contributed to the lack of growth. I appreciare that it is not the cause. But, if the Coalition had not bowed to the pressure of middle England in making it so difficult to develop, in a time when they should of been encouraging those who want to get on and build, then we maybe would not STILL be in a state of such major economic woe.

 

[grawhite]

Labour caused the problems from the get go, the country is now finding out how bad that problem is/was. If Labour get back in, we are well and truly in the shit again.

 

[CheeseRolls]

4. Inflation under control. Great for everyone except savers.

The opposite is in fact true. Inflation wipes out savings. Savers require interest rates to be above inflation, otherwise their savings are devalued.

I think we can expect a Libdem voter collapse, with Labour being the main beneficiary and a UKIP gain, with the Conservatives being the net losers. I can't see Labour gaining a clear majority right now, so it is still all to play for.

 

[glasfryn]

If Labour get in next time, I'm emmigrating. Then you see what happens to the country......

take a few of the greedy bankers with you

 

[mikeyjh]

If Labour get in next time, I'm emmigrating. Then you see what happens to the country......

I would feel like doing the same.

Removal Companies | International Removals | Removals & Storage

Let us know if you need help booking flights etc....

 

[Ernest]

Seeing as CMD and Gideon couldn't get a majority against arguably the most unpopular PM ever in 2010 they have f*** all chance of winning the next election

 

[Common as Mook]

No need to emigrate as if Labour get back in, the rich will continue have their nests feathered as it was the previous government's shambles of a reign that allowed the banking industry to run riot.

Those who think the "rich boys" will be any worse off under Labour are deluded.

I'd quite like to see Labour back in, just I can do exactly what the left have done for the last 3 years. Nit pick at absolutely everything purely because it has been introduced by the Tories. It's not like Labout would have adopted some austerity measures too............oh wait.

 

[beorhthelm]

The localism agenda that the coalition has introduced has crippled housebuilding more than the economic downturn. "Localism" has resulted in Councils not granting planning permissions for new housing anywhere near the level needed (due to increased support for NIMBY's).

interesting one. local councils have always been responsible for local planning. central government doesnt direct housing, thats done by private devepolers or the local councils in their strategic planning, any councils not giving planning are using the same powers they had. so this is bollocks.

housing is stuck because of mortgages, beacuse the banks dont want to lend and/or people arent less certain of borrowing, combined with developers that want to make inappropriate houses (ie large 4 bed homes where 1-2 bed homes are needed) or have stock left to sell.

and it should be noted it was relying on housing market bubble to drive the economy that got us into this mess in the first place. i dont understand why anyone thinks this alone would be a solution.

 

[Don Quixote]

I don't really want a Labour government again, not after the last showing anyway. If the opinion polls are correct it looks like that is what we might be getting. I fear for this country.

Do you really think it makes a difference?