[Football] Are the Nigels going down?

[worthingweird]

They have plenty of “easy” games to come - but those are real 6-pointers. The pressure will be on.
Regardless of whether they go down, it’s great fun to watch.
Also, I’m finding my nerves get too shredded by these Palace matches…I’d be quite happy for a few seasons of them in Division 2.

There are no easy games...

 

[Lady Whistledown]

Despite stinking the PL out with Vieira's version of RoyBall for most of this season, the fact remains that they have been sat in 12th spot for months now, never moving up or down no matter how abysmal and dull to watch they are. Yes, it's a small gap to the bottom of the table, but there are just too many teams below them for them to be at risk.

After the Arsenal match next weekend, they have an easy run of fixtures against all the teams currently below them, so they're bound to scrape together the points they need to once again be a waste of a Premier League spot next season (and if they do lose the first couple, they'll fire Super Pat anyway and get in a firefighter who will pick up a couple of wins with the usual dead cat bounce). Basically, they are just unflushable.

 

[worthingweird]

You say all that, but I noticed a Palace fan sneering that the lyrics to GOSBTS appear on the jumbotron, which I believe trumps all those things.

I mean, what a win for Palace that is.

They are there for the hard of hearing...

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

No, they won't go down. Unfortunately.

Too many home games where they will pick up at least two or three wins.

 

[Herne Hill Seagull]

They've somehow stayed in twelfth place for weeks without winning a game. I suspect they'll have enough once their fixtures change after the Arsenal game, but there's always one team dragged into it late on as a result of the others' fighting and picking up some results. It's not too much to believe it could be them.

 

[Peppermint Tea]

In theory, they should be safe: points on the board and, after Arsenal, six games they could win.

In reality: they have very little confidence, they look very nervous and if, after Arsenal, they lose to Leicester at home and Leeds away (v conceivable), they will be in a world of despair and, I would think, would go down.

However, this is Crystal Palace and they are the luckiest of lucky bastards. So they will survive…for now.

 

[AlexBH]

They’ll do that thing they always do of playing rubbish and somehow finishing mid table. Hodgson was the master of it. Bore everyone to death, sit back, well organised, counter attack, get Wilf to dive in the box and get those sweaty 1-0 wins.

 

[TWOCHOICEStom]

From what I could see, they had absolutely no obvious plan for building up attacks. Messing around with the ball, hoofing it, they seem to rely on the more skilful players just "doing something". That's a big worry for them.

Their defence isn't exactly leaking goals. But Arsenal, Leicester and Leeds up next. They could well be up against it.

Lovely watching a relegation dogfight from way up here, innit?

 

[Simster]

It would take a set of highly improbable results (including a 10-0 loss to Arsenal and Bournemouth winning by 4 at Villa) but the bottom of the league table after Monday night could theoretically look like this:

(West Ham would actually only have played 26, not 27 as their game against Man City is obviously not happening)

 

[nwgull]

They are certainly bang in relegation form:

View attachment 158369

EDIT: It's mad that we've scored 22 in those 10 games (same as City & the Arse). Palace have scored 4

Their remaining fixtures:
Arsenal (a) LOSE
Leicester (h) DRAW
Leeds (a) LOSE
Soton (a) DRAW
Everton (h) DRAW
Wolves (a) LOSE
West Ham (h) WIN
Spurs (a) LOSE
‘muff (h) WIN
Fulham (a) LOSE
Forest (h) DRAW

Considering their return of 5 points from the last 10 games, the above yields an optimistic (for them) 10 points, putting them on 37 and RIGHT IN THE SH|T

37 points will probably be enough, unfortunately. At least 3 of the teams below them will get less than a point per game in the run in.

 

[worthingseagull123]

Leeds, Southampton and Bournemouth all look poorer unfortunately.

 

[Acker79]

A few people have noted if they play like last night they should be alright. But how often will they play like last night? It is easy to put the effort in when facing the top 6 and your rivals. Looking at their remaining games:


Arsenal (a) big six, up for it
Leicester (h) previous premier league winners, but a notch below
Leeds (a) champions of europe! But seriously, this might be one they could get up for
Soton (a) bottom team, struggling to string results together, might not be up for it
Everton (h) everton are premier league mainstays, but not particularly fashionable, could struggle to get up for this
Wolves (a) not up for it
West Ham (h) not up for it
Spurs (a) big six up for it
‘muff (h) not up for it
Fulham (a) not up for it
Forest (h) last game of the season, could be

Of course, all of this is on standard games, it could come down to how much they view themselves in danger. Being in a relegation fight might inspire them to play get up for it even if the opponents aren't so glamourous.

 

[Insel affe]

Leeds, Southampton and Bournemouth all look poorer unfortunately.

I am not so sure about that, they appear to shop at Lidels....

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

It's very plausible Palace get relegated in my view.

There are no teams cut adrift so effectively 3 spots up for grabs. This is unusual

All the teams in the shake up you can make a case for picking up a few points. Even the 2 teams most likely to go down, Muff and Stains, I think have got something about them, they are far from dead and buried.

All those teams down with them with be looking at their Palace games as 6 pointers as much as Palace will.

Simon Jordan may well panic and give Fat Pat the boot. This would be a mistake, he's taken a poor side and at least has them organised and working for each other. I'm not convinced they will get better at this stage.

And it's the lack of goals. It just sets a nervousness through the camp.

Palace fans are sh****** it. And they should be

 

[Acker79]

Simon Jordan may well panic and give Fat Pat the boot. This would be a mistake, he's taken a poor side and at least has them organised and working for each other. I'm not convinced they will get better at this stage.

And it's the lack of goals. It just sets a nervousness through the camp.

Palace fans are sh****** it. And they should be

 

[Bozza]

I don't think they will, but when you look at those fixtures when you're desperately out of form and can't score for toffee, none of them look "easy" really. I can certainly make a case why pretty much everyone they have to play will get something from the fixture against them.

It's going to be a fun watch, from a lofty distance, anyway

 

[Seagull58]

Nope. For me it’s not so much the points they’re on, more their league position; we need 6 teams to pull above them which is highly unlikel.

6 teams within 3 points of them have to overtake them. 4 of those teams have a game in hand, including the 3 that are 3 points behind. Their current relegation odds are 6 to 1, so about 15% probability. We desperately need teams below them to make the most of their games in hand.

 

[jimhigham]

I don't think they will, but when you look at those fixtures when you're desperately out of form and can't score for toffee, none of them look "easy" really. I can certainly make a case why pretty much everyone they have to play will get something from the fixture against them.

It's going to be a fun watch, from a lofty distance, anyway

Isn’t it just? We’ve just beaten the tracker and passed 40 points… on 15th March.

 

[kjgood]

Unfortunately probably not.

 

[jimhigham]

FiveThirtyEight has them at 10%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/