Anti-Tory Majority in Parliament now GUARANTEED

[Lord Bracknell]

Current state of the parties:-

Labour 255
LibDem 54
SNP 6
Plaid Cymru 3
SDLP 3
Green 1
Alliance 1

TOTAL 323


Conservatives 301
Democratic Unionists 8
Independent Unionist 1

TOTAL 310


Needed for a majority:- 323 (assuming that the 4 Sinn Fein MPs won't take their seats and that the Speaker is above all this stuff).

And the Independent Unionist is no great fan of the Tories.

Still to declare:- 13 seats.

 

[Don Quixote]

Easy, unlucky Cameron!

 

[Chicken Run]

And it's taken you how long to work that out, weirdo x

 

[Scotty Mac]

oh goody

 

[sten_super]

What a load of bollocks.

 

[Scotty Mac]

its like being in the school playground - quick, lets all seven of us gang up and pick on the popular one

 

[Kent Seagull]

I can't see how we will end up with anything other than a weak, powerless government, whoever leads it. Hardly what the country needs to lead it to recovery.

 

[Lord Bracknell]

Updated, now that more seats have declared:-

Current state of the parties:-

Labour 257
LibDem 57
SNP 6
Plaid Cymru 3
SDLP 3
Green 1
Alliance 1

TOTAL 328


Conservatives 304
Democratic Unionists 8
Independent Unionist 1

TOTAL 313


Needed for a majority:- 323 (assuming that the 5 Sinn Fein MPs won't take their seats and that the Speaker is above all this stuff).

And the Independent Unionist is no great fan of the Tories.

Still to declare:- 4 seats.

 

[beorhthelm]

But, would the cost of SNP and PC involvment mean independence and therefore massive loss of future westminster seats for Labour?

 

[sten_super]

*snip*

And what, Lord B, does it look like if by some miracle the Lib Dems enter a coalition or more likely an informal agreement with the Tories?

Labour 257
SNP 6
Plaid Cymru 3
SDLP 3
Green 1
Alliance 1

TOTAL 271


Conservatives 304
LibDem 57
Democratic Unionists 8
Independent Unionist 1

TOTAL 370

Your numbers don't look quite so clever then, do they?

 

[Westdene Seagull]

You can do it the other way round as well and do an anti-Labour count and it will look as equally pointless and bad loser like.

 

[Brian Fantana]

Clegg and Cameron are going to team up, in some form or other, you can just tell. It could be quite a good arrangement.

 

[Lord Bracknell]

And what, Lord B, does it look like if by some miracle the Lib Dems enter a coalition or more likely an informal agreement with the Tories?

Labour 257
SNP 6
Plaid Cymru 3
SDLP 3
Green 1
Alliance 1

TOTAL 271


Conservatives 304
LibDem 57
Democratic Unionists 8
Independent Unionist 1

TOTAL 370

Your numbers don't look quite so clever then, do they?

It looks to me like CMD would have a coalition with a party that can't be relied on to back his programme of immediate cuts in public spending.

In other words, it'll be a Tory government that will be forced to abandon the major policy that it fought the election on.

Suits me fine.

 

[pasty]

Updated, now that more seats have declared:-

Current state of the parties:-

Labour 257
LibDem 57
SNP 6
Plaid Cymru 3
SDLP 3
Green 1
Alliance 1

TOTAL 328


Conservatives 304
Democratic Unionists 8
Independent Unionist 1

TOTAL 313


Needed for a majority:- 323 (assuming that the 5 Sinn Fein MPs won't take their seats and that the Speaker is above all this stuff).

And the Independent Unionist is no great fan of the Tories.

Still to declare:- 4 seats.

Oooh, look. If I add up all the seats of 7, yes SEVEN, different parties, I can make them beat the Tories.

 

[larus]

It looks to me like CMD would have a coalition with a party that can't be relied on to back his programme of immediate cuts in public spending.

In other words, it'll be a Tory government that will be forced to abandon the major policy that it fought the election on.

Suits me fine.

Well, it looks to me like you're a sore 'loser'. "Oh, my 'team' didn't win, so I'm going to sulk".

Whichever way you interpret this, the country have rejected all parties. However, they've rejected Labour more than they've rejected the Tories.

And as for the Lib Dems not supporting the Tories on Tax cuts, I wouldn't be so sure. With all the shit going around about soveriegn debt crisis, they'll be a lot of presssure to address the deficit sooner rather than later.

 

[sten_super]

Oooh, look. If I add up all the seats of 7, yes SEVEN, different parties, I can make them beat the Tories.

You do suspect that had the Tories reached 324, Lord B would have produced exactly the same table but with everyone, including Sinn Fein, on the anti-tory side, to show how the Tories are in the minority.

 

[Lord Bracknell]

It's not about the numbers or the make-up of any potential coalition, formal or informal. It's about the capability of Cameron to get his policies through the parliamentary processes.

He can't.

As I predicted before the election, we'll have a minority Tory government that will achieve nothing very dramatic.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

It's not about the numbers or the make-up of any potential coalition, formal or informal. It's about the capability of Cameron to get his policies through the parliamentary processes.

He can't.

As I predicted before the election, we'll have a minority Tory government that will achieve nothing very dramatic.

The same can be said for GB as well though - especially as he has first dibs on trying to form a government.

 

[Joe Gatting's Dad]

The Lib Dems will come to several arrangements not to oppose or to support certain Conservative policies to get us through the initial period.

There will then be another election, probably next March, which will result in a Conservative majority. Look at the history of elections following a hung parliament - the minority government nearly always wins.

 

[Lord Bracknell]

The same can be said for GB as well though - especially as he has first dibs on trying to form a government.

Cameron can become prime minister of a minority government. Brown can't.

The ONLY way that Brown could possibly stay in power is with the agreement of Clegg - and the price will be electoral reform before the next general election.

A Cameron government will want an early election - but this will be without electoral reform. And that, in itself, will almost certainly LOSE him votes next time.