[Football] Another useless Stat- "Win Probability"

[nickbrighton]

So the Prem have come up with another bit of bollox for the commentators to waffle on about.

At various times throughout the match we are now shown a win probability %, which the commentators then spend a few mins discussing.

So it seems to work like this, a team that very rarely comes from behind to win is behind at half time playing a team that very seldom loses a game where they are in front at half time. Unsurprisingly the team behind has a low win probability"- wow what an insight

Over the games I watched this "win probability" changed so often and so quickly (ours changed from a single figure win chance to 80+ in 10 mins, as did a lot of the others.

Its just a load of obvious meaningless hogwash. Im pretty sure most of us can figure out that if we are 2-0 up with 5mins to go, we are likely to win the game (well we aren't, but most teams would be)

What would this Win Probability have been like in the City game last season, 2-0 down, 70 mins gone- I expect 95% against a win, even at 2-1 it wouldnt have changed much!

Has anyone found it useful and enhanced the "match day experience"? or Like me, do you think is meaningless drivel? (probably much like this post)

 

[Uh_huh_him]

So the Prem have come up with another bit of bollox for the commentators to waffle on about.

At various times throughout the match we are now shown a win probability %, which the commentators then spend a few mins discussing.

So it seems to work like this, a team that very rarely comes from behind to win is behind at half time playing a team that very seldom loses a game where they are in front at half time. Unsurprisingly the team behind has a low win probability"- wow what an insight

Over the games I watched this "win probability" changed so often and so quickly (ours changed from a single figure win chance to 80+ in 10 mins, as did a lot of the others.

Its just a load of obvious meaningless hogwash. Im pretty sure most of us can figure out that if we are 2-0 up with 5mins to go, we are likely to win the game (well we aren't, but most teams would be)

What would this Win Probability have been like in the City game last season, 2-0 down, 70 mins gone- I expect 95% against a win, even at 2-1 it wouldnt have changed much!

Has anyone found it useful and enhanced the "match day experience"? or Like me, do you think is meaningless drivel? (probably much like this post)

Unfortunately, I don't think it is meaningless, just another example of reminding punters that in-play betting is available from any of the numerous bookies sponsoring football.

 

[Simster]

Unfortunately, I don't think it is meaningless, just another example of reminding punters that in-play betting is available from any of the numerous bookies sponsoring football.

This.

I was going to ask why the OP was bothering to rant about it, but actually this is a very good reason. Beyond that, result probability offers nothing.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

They have it in the cricket now ... not that I watch the hundred religiously you understand.

I don't think it's actually linked to betting. It's just broadcasters trying a new fad

 

[Bry Nylon]

Unfortunately, I don't think it is meaningless, just another example of reminding punters that in-play betting is available from any of the numerous bookies sponsoring football.

Quite.

"When the fun stops...find subliminal ways to coax viewers to wager even more money."

 

[Dave Fishwick]

the cricket one very rarely marries up with the live in-play betting odds which is quite funny. That they can't even invent a decent algorithm

 

[Uh_huh_him]

the cricket one very rarely marries up with the live in-play betting odds which is quite funny. That they can't even invent a decent algorithm

to be fair in-play odds are usually very shit.
I wouldn't be surprised that the two don't marry up.

 

[Pavilionaire]

I can see win probability is a good tool to aid the betting industry but as on-screen stats go it is as meaningless as possession %.

 

[Stat Brother]

But I'm #1.

 

[Seasidesage]

I had a cheeky £10 at HT Saturday on the basis we really couldn't play any worse and they were shit. All I got was a measly 15/2 cheapskates

 

[Rogero]

I had a cheeky £10 at HT Saturday on the basis we really couldn't play any worse and they were shit. All I got was a measly 15/2 cheapskates

Shirley that’s not bad .

 

[Seasidesage]

I'm not complaining it paid for the trip up there but if it was a single figure win probably I was short changed a bit?

 

[Arthritic Toe]

No - I don't want this at all. If we're 2 down going into the last 10 mins, I don't want some numpty telling me there's practically no chance of getting a result. It will destroy the hope.

 

[nickbrighton]

TBH I hadn't considered the betting angle, which certainly makes more sense of it.

I wasn't trying to have a rant as such, just I really couldn't see any point to it, but as has been pointed out, its maybe away of encouraging betting without being seen to do.

I really thought that there was a plan to remove all this "in play" betting and the constant advertising but it seems to be getting worse not better, but thats a thread for another day

 

[Happy Exile]

I really hate the relentless promotion of gambling and the pointless statistifcation of football. Watching Spurs v Man City yesterday the commentary and their relentless looking for narratives in the statistics to try and create a story where there's already enough of one is one of the things I most hate about having no option to turn off commentary without turning off sound altogether.

(But the nerd in me gets some guilty interest looking at some of the AI models that predict win/draw/lose before a game even begins - my favourite is currently suggesting us to win as the most likely outcome at the weekend.)