My understanding is that because the funding transfers from being a direct payment (to the institutions) to a loan (to the students) it is considered by the bean counters not to be part of direct government spending as it will eventually be repaid. By accounting convention it therefore improves the balance sheet.
Although I am largely retired I know that my institution has worked through the numbers and considers that it will have to charge a fee in the order of £7.7K per annum just to "stand still" in relation to the loss of direct government funding. Some degree courses will still attract additional direct government grants (ie. Science and Maths degrees). Expect even the most mundane universities to charge an initial fee of around £7.5K-£8K and the elite institutions to charge the maximum £9K.
Willit affect student numbers? Hard to tell. When we introduced fees in this country there was realistically no impact on student numbers despite the initial furore. In Australia when they introduced a full fee system the numbers dropped for two years and are now back to, and higher than, the previous level. I guess if a degree will help you to get any job (let alone a higher paid one) in the current climate it is worth it's weight (literally) in gold. I suspect that over the next couple of years, once schools, universities, careers officers et al help students to do the sums for potential long term income benefit vs very low repayment costs, the impact will be less than we might forecast now. One possible concern is the impact of higher fee levels on overseas student numbers as currently this source of additional income helps many universities to keep down the fees charged to home students. If their numbers decrease as a result of the fees hike, then the charges to home students might ultimately be even higher than currently forecast.
Thank you for this appraisal. Being myself active in political circles, it's sometimes difficult to look at a political football without wanting to kick it into one particular goal. Posts like this really help.
That's why despite my club allegiances I like posting on NSC.