El Dude Brother said:Don't want to tempt fate, but should Lord B triumph will his seat be recontested at next May's local elections or will it be exempt?
Rusco said:Although not a political analyst I have done my research.
What needs to be remembered is that this ward (either now or in its
previous guises) has I believe in the last 30 years, always elected at
least one liberal (or as they are now, Lib Dems) at any poll. The
successful Lib Dem candidate at the last election is now an independent as
he fell out with the party. It is not seen by the established parties as
prime Seagulls territory as it is largely rural, although they are worried
about what we can do in the larger connurbations within the district. The
previous incumbent who died, was an honest and decent man but did not
himself support the stadium plan. He did though distance himself from the
money wasting activities of the council over this issue.
Also, the Conservative at this election has promoted himself as pro Albion.
Therefore, success at this election can take a number of different forms
not all of which include winning the seat. As I see it there are a number
of different levels of success (a swingometer if you like), such as:
- achieving over 10% of the vote (which for a party formed only 2 months
ago would be fantastic)
- beating one of the national parties
- polling enough votes to throw a message that even in our non key
territory we can gain significant support
- the Lib Dem losing
- getting enough of our own votes to clearly have prevented the Lib Dem
from winning
- coming second
- winning the seat
Depending on how far down this list we go tonight will dictate whether Ed
and the Seagulls Party are merely pleased or ecstatic. I would say that
anything including or better than the Lib Dem losing would be a massive
night for us all.
Also from what I have seen, the party have fought an honest and well
thought out campaign. The Lib Dems have been their usual deceitful selves
and this exercise however it ends up will have been a key lesson as to the
tactics we will face next May in the full council when prime areas such as
Peacehaven, East Saltdean, Newhaven, Seaford and Lewes Town are up for
grabs.
Having said all this, we Albion fans owe a great debt to the Seagulls Party
and Ed specifically. Best of Luck for tonight.
Dies Irae said:...and you wrote that all on your own Mr Ruscovitch?