A pessimistic view to get 2nd

[Not Andy Naylor]

I'm not even assuming we'll beat QPR. I saw them against Derby and they were decent, and they're due a good result. Then we play Cardiff, and it's never easy to beat a Warnock team, especially as they'll have had one more day's rest than us. And then, and then. It's the only sane way to be.

 

[ferring seagull]

I absolutely despair when I read some of the posts on here.

As of today, we are not even half way through the Championship programme so how some of our best (deluded) can post some of the drivel they have been doing God alone knows.

I think most of us have seen enough in the past few years to recognise that 'it ain't over until the fat lady sings and she hasn't even turned up for the pre concert gig.

Not pessimistic but REALISTIC so let's hang on for a few weeks or so !

 

[saafend_seagull]

Let's just try and win these two games at home first. Tough run after that to mid February which could really screw us.


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[Blue Valkyrie]

The Blue Valkyrie Promotion Formula states that if we win the next EIGHT in a row we will be 16 points ahead of 3rd place with 16 to play and as good as up.

Aim High.

Let's start that with a victory v QPR.

 

[Bigtomfu]

I read the list and got to the losses section and without seeing the names counted the number and internally thought with confidence - this team isn't losing 7 more games this year.

 

[Notters]

I do not really think it is down to statistics. It is pretty clear to me. If Murray keeps fit and we give him reasonable service we go up. It he gets injured, all of a sudden things get cloudy.

We didn't have him last season. I think we could cope without. It would be very frustrating mind.

 

[KingKev]

Alright. But it would be pretty INSANE if we did, looking at the last 18 months. My only fear is drawing too many.

In the 23 games last season that were the equivalent of this season's second half we drew 12 and won 9 (6 at home and only 3 away). The key for me, when I look at the fixtures, is picking up at least 5 or 6 wins from the last 12 away fixtures. If we can do that someone's likely going to need 50-plus points in the 2nd half to catch us, which is a big ask given how competitive the league is.
Both BHA and Toon have had great first halves but still need to win their 23rd games to go over 50 points. Only Burnley managed it last year. That indicates how tough the ask would be of a reading or a derby or a Wednesday (lol) or a Hudds. Not impossible but very tough.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

I read the list and got to the losses section and without seeing the names counted the number and internally thought with confidence - this team isn't losing 7 more games this year.

We hope. You can never tell, but can hope. Nobody would've predicted the losses against Rotherham & Cardiff last season. To win a game, you need 6 or 7 of your team to be better than their counterparts. Hopefully any suspensions or injuries, won't throw us off track.

 

[Rugrat]

An early run out for this as I don't normally do it until after the 3rd round cup game. It'll change a lot between now and then ... anything over 60% correct is good but even at that the total points can be fairly close. Generally I am too benevolent with points, they get dropped in the most unlikely of places. Have been a bit pessimistic with some of ours, simply because we have the buffer

I reckon 89 will be good enough for auto and the last column shows how many points between now and end of season a side can drop and still make the 89. It goes to show just how tough it will be for the likes of Derby and Wednesday

 

[Moshe Gariani]

An early run out for this as I don't normally do it until after the 3rd round cup game. It'll change a lot between now and then ... anything over 60% correct is good but even at that the total points can be fairly close. Generally I am too benevolent with points, they get dropped in the most unlikely of places. Have been a bit pessimistic with some of ours, simply because we have the buffer

I reckon 89 will be good enough for auto and the last column shows how many points between now and end of season a side can drop and still make the 89. It goes to show just how tough it will be for the likes of Derby and Wednesday

Appreciate it is just a bit of fun but very misleading in terms of how things are likely to turn out...

 

[Rugrat]

Appreciate it is just a bit of fun but very misleading in terms of how things are likely to turn out...

Fun!!! It keeps me awake at night.

For sure there will be many twists and turns to come but it won't be too far off in terms of who is there. But I also have Hudd's, Villa, Narch and Fulham just below.

I shoved it up because I think the max points to drop is another way of looking at ppg. It just shows how little some teams have to play with and it'll be great fun reducing their numbers further as they drop points going forward. Just need to hope we maintain our form though

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

I absolutely despair when I read some of the posts on here.

As of today, we are not even half way through the Championship programme so how some of our best (deluded) can post some of the drivel they have been doing God alone knows.

I think most of us have seen enough in the past few years to recognise that 'it ain't over until the fat lady sings and she hasn't even turned up for the pre concert gig.

Not pessimistic but REALISTIC so let's hang on for a few weeks or so !

Nah, we're going up mate, ENJOY it

 

[One Love]

I'm confident we'll get around 90 pts by the end of the season.

The problem for me is if two other teams get more. I'm thinking of Newcastle and Derby. Under McClaren, Derby are a different team and look like winning every game. I thought last week would find them out but they still got a point. I'm watching them closely hoping they have a blip.

 

[Moshe Gariani]

Under McClaren, Derby are a different team and look like winning every game. I thought last week would find them out but they still got a point. I'm watching them closely hoping they have a blip.

Fulham had 65% possession and Derby scored with both of only 2 shots on target achieved in 95 mins...!!!!

Derby are decent but they are where they are in the league for a reason. They were OK in August: 0-0 home draws with us and Villa - good away win at Preston - defeats at Burton and Barnsley. September they were rubbish for a month. October onwards they have been OK again.

Norwich, Leeds and Newcastle all away in a month from the start of January will test their capability to stay within 10 points of us.

 

[Napper]

I'm confident we'll get around 90 pts by the end of the season.

The problem for me is if two other teams get more. I'm thinking of Newcastle and Derby. Under McClaren, Derby are a different team and look like winning every game. I thought last week would find them out but they still got a point. I'm watching them closely hoping they have a blip.

They are a pain at the moment.

Their Xmas fixtures -

Birmingham H
Wigan H
Norwich A

Small chance Birmingham may get new manager bounce.

You'd hope Norwich may take points off them but they couldn't do that to Hudds so not that confident.

 

[Seagull Mags]

They are a pain at the moment.

Their Xmas fixtures -

Birmingham H
Wigan H
Norwich A

Small chance Birmingham may get new manager bounce.

You'd hope Norwich may take points off them but they couldn't do that to Hudds so not that confident.

But then again Wigan went away to Huddersfield and won! Just shows anyone can win on the day, that's why the next most important game for me is QPR at home

 

[Napper]

Updated , after surprise win at Fulham , I've removed the need to get anything at Brentford.


Home wins

Cardiff
Burton
Ipswich
Blackburn
Wigan
Bristol City

Away wins

Barnsley
Rotherham
QPR
Forest

Draws

Sheff W H
Reading H
Birmingham H
Preston A
Wolves A

Loses

Brentford A
Newcastle H
Derby H
Hudd A
Leeds A
Norwich A
Villa A