[News] A lorry drivers view of driver shortage, fuel shortage and Brexit.

[Green Cross Code Man]

Now your worrying about all the homeowners The poorest don’t own homes they barely afford to live with the out of control rental prices.

Now you're not thinking about the consequence for the minority which will suffer a great deal more if the majority take a hit.

 

[Justice]

Now you're not thinking about the consequence for the minority which will suffer a great deal more if the majority take a hit.

Who is the minority you speak of? The poor by any chance? It won’t make a blind bit of difference to them they will still be poor.

 

[nicko31]

Nobody has said it's all down to Brexit, but if Brexit wasn't a significant factor, why the f*** would the government do this ?

Petrol driver shortage: Visa scheme planned to ease problems

Ministers are working on plans for a temporary visa scheme to make it easier for foreign lorry drivers to come to the UK. Final details of exactly how the initiative will work are expected to be announced this weekend. Any changes to immigration rules will be temporary, with a cap on the number of workers allowed to enter the UK.

The shortage of hauliers threatens more disruption to deliveries of petrol, food and other goods. It is estimated that the UK is short of about 100,000 HGV drivers - with existing shortages made worse by the pandemic and Brexit.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58670792

Interesting to see if many come now.

A lot of denial that this is Brexit related at all. Where is the chaos across France, Germany etc where there is also a driver shortage?

Despite 5 years + since the Brexit vote the government still haven't got their shit together. Take customs, full checks at French and Dutch ports, at Dover just waive through. Maybe proper checks sometimes in 2022

But Johnson did say, f**k business, sometimes he does keep to his word

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

While the OP clearly knows his stuff and does the job, one of the major reasons we have a shortage is down to foreign drivers not having visas to enter the U.K. because of Brexit.

Boris Johnson is very likely to U-Turn by Monday to fix this. Something, according to a government official, they have been reticent to do as relaxing immigration laws would reveal Brexit is to blame for many of the driver shortages.

Whilst I acknowledge there are existing shortages due to factors the OP outlined, the role of Brexit in this mess cannot be downplayed. It’s a major cause of the shortages.

Likewise the bit the OP said about having left the EU, all the old regulations are still in place. We have had 5 years to create a bespoke solution to keep the HGVs on the road, and indeed replace all the onerous EU laws rules with bespoke solutions.

For many we left the EU to get their regulations off our backs. A pal of mine in business voted leave for this reason. It was promised, and those who said it would be tricky to deliver were 'scaremongering'. His view now is it was all bullshit by the tories to vacuum gammon votes while keeping their nutters like Deadwood quiet.

Who knew?

Anyway regardless, this is HMG/Boris ****ing up again, asleep at the wheel, in fact.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Interesting to see if many come now.

A lot of denial that this is Brexit related at all. Where is the chaos across France, Germany etc where there is also a driver shortage?

Despite 5 years + since the Brexit vote the government still haven't got their shit together. Take customs, full checks at French and Dutch ports, at Dover just waive through. Maybe proper checks sometimes in 2022

But Johnson did say, f**k business, sometimes he does keep to his word

I see that we are on the same bit of the same page.

 

[Guy Fawkes]

I'm not saying that; you're trying to twist what I said for your own purposes. There are two separate issues here.

We've been told for years by would-be British workers that EU migrants were 'taking our jobs' - so if that was the case, and those EU migrants have gone home, then those British workers should be filling those vacancies.

If, on the other hand, they are now saying that the wages are too low, that is an entirely different reason for the vacancies to "immigrants are coming over here and taking our jobs".

As to accusing me of claiming that "helping the poorer members of our society is a disaster", I've spent my whole adult life being called 'a Commie ****' or 'loony Leftie' because I've always condemned poverty wages and widening inequality between bosses and workers - we have corporate CEOs on £5-6 million salaries while their front-line staff - those who actually DO the work and ultimately create the wealth - are on the minimum wage and then forced to rely on top-up benefits to survive, whereupon they are condemned by Tories and the Tory tabloids as 'welfare scroungers'.

At present, the pay-ratio in Britain (how much top bosses are paid in relation to lowest-paid workers) is 160:1 - I don't think those bosses work 160 times as hard as their workers (although of course, Tories will say "Ah, its 'the market' which determines levels of pay') - and I consider this obscene.

However: two problems a) any suggestion that we pay those at the top a bit less in order to pay more to workers is denounced as Marxist, or anti-business, and provokes warnings that firms will leave the country. b) About half of the English working class are Tories, so don't really want to change this system; they'd rather blame their poverty wages on immigrants or the EU, which means that they keep voting for parties of the Right, even when those parties crap on them.

Even that champion of 'the proletariat, Karl Marx, despaired of the conservative, reactionary, forelock-tugging, English working-class - as do I.

Both can be true

Supply and demand of labour affects wage levels. Free movement of labour led to more labour arriving in the UK to do those lower paid jobs, which suppressed the wages in the sector as there was no reason to pay more to get staff into the industry through the incentive of higher wages

Using the same principle but ignoring that the increase in labour was coming from EU free movement so to take nationality and EU membership out of the discussion but to look at it in a simple way, as simply supply and demand.

If you were a builder in Brighton, and there were 3 only other builders operating in the area (your competition for employment) and more work than they can all meet, the price they charge increases as they look to reduce the amount of work out there by using price point as a way to reduce the number of jobs to a level where supply and demand of labour are roughly equal (ie if it cost a fiver to have an extention added to your house, everyone would do it and demand for builders would far outstrip the supply of labour (number of builders) so, for this example, it worked out builders charge £80 a day for their labour as this balances out supply and demand

If suddenly every single builder in this country moved and set up business in Brighton, what happens to the price builders can charge to get work, they all end up undercutting each other to secure some work for themselves but may end up unable to secure any.

The price goes down for those wanting work done, but those working in the area before are now financially worse off and unable to command the same wages as before

(also answering Thunderbold's comment about inflation) If those extra builders all left again snd returned back to the other parts of the country, the price the builders in Brighton can charge increases once again and they can get back to charging similar wages as they did before

Now looking at where a lot of that EU settled and worked, it was in areas like Social care, like manual labour (building, etc) Lorry driving, hospitality, etc.

The reduction in labour supply has directly led to wage inflation pressures and therefore better wages in those sectors as employers have to use higher wages to incentivise people to come and work for them


Wage suppression through increased labour being available in low paid jobs will have directly contributed to the every increasing pay gap between the top and bottom paid in society and this inflationary pressure could help close that gap a little through natural market forces rather than force artificial means like statutory minimum wages, etc...


The long term effect of suppressed wages whilst in the EU is fewer have entered that labour market as a result of the poor earning potential so creating that shortage in labour we see now once the changes to immigration came into force and we lost some EU nationals who chose not to stay after Brexit.

The pandemic has brought shortages into sharper focus, increasing staff shortages in certain areas as it's also led to a lot of people re-evaluating and changing careers, moving away from some undervalued sectors which will also drive wage inflation in those sectors

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I don’t see a single person in this thread blaming it ALL on Brexit. You have created a straw man.

The point is, Brexit isn’t necessarily causing each of these problems, but it IS exacerbating almost all of them. Would things be perfect without Brexit? Of course not. Would they be better? Of course they would.

I suspect we’re basically going to slowly slink back into closer alignment with the EU via the back door (minor one off u turns) over the coming months and years, whilst never acknowledging it as an issue.

Slinking back, with a much worse deal than we had prior, and with no influence. Genius move from all concerned.

Agree 100%.

 

[WATFORD zero]

I don’t see a single person in this thread blaming it ALL on Brexit. You have created a straw man.

The point is, Brexit isn’t necessarily causing each of these problems, but it IS exacerbating almost all of them. Would things be perfect without Brexit? Of course not. Would they be better? Of course they would.

I suspect we’re basically going to slowly slink back into closer alignment with the EU via the back door (minor one off u turns) over the coming months and years, whilst never acknowledging it as an issue.

Slinking back, with a much worse deal than we had prior, and with no influence. Genius move from all concerned.

But at least nobody will have to admit to having been conned. That's the most important thing

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

Let the sheep believe what they want to believe on MSM
Most sensible people dont believe the hype
https://youtu.be/9vQaVIoEjOM
Regards
DF

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Both can be true

Supply and demand of labour affects wage levels. Free movement of labour led to more labour arriving in the UK to do those lower paid jobs, which suppressed the wages in the sector as there was no reason to pay more to get staff into the industry through the incentive of higher wages

Using the same principle but ignoring that the increase in labour was coming from EU free movement so to take nationality and EU membership out of the discussion but to look at it in a simple way, as simply supply and demand.

If you were a builder in Brighton, and there were 3 only other builders operating in the area (your competition for employment) and more work than they can all meet, the price they charge increases as they look to reduce the amount of work out there by using price point as a way to reduce the number of jobs to a level where supply and demand of labour are roughly equal (ie if it cost a fiver to have an extention added to your house, everyone would do it and demand for builders would far outstrip the supply of labour (number of builders) so, for this example, it worked out builders charge £80 a day for their labour as this balances out supply and demand

If suddenly every single builder in this country moved and set up business in Brighton, what happens to the price builders can charge to get work, they all end up undercutting each other to secure some work for themselves but may end up unable to secure any.

The price goes down for those wanting work done, but those working in the area before are now financially worse off and unable to command the same wages as before

(also answering Thunderbold's comment about inflation) If those extra builders all left again snd returned back to the other parts of the country, the price the builders in Brighton can charge increases once again and they can get back to charging similar wages as they did before

Now looking at where a lot of that EU settled and worked, it was in areas like Social care, like manual labour (building, etc) Lorry driving, hospitality, etc.

The reduction in labour supply has directly led to wage inflation pressures and therefore better wages in those sectors as employers have to use higher wages to incentivise people to come and work for them


Wage suppression through increased labour being available in low paid jobs will have directly contributed to the every increasing pay gap between the top and bottom paid in society and this inflationary pressure could help close that gap a little through natural market forces rather than force artificial means like statutory minimum wages, etc...


The long term effect of suppressed wages whilst in the EU is fewer have entered that labour market as a result of the poor earning potential so creating that shortage in labour we see now once the changes to immigration came into force and we lost some EU nationals who chose not to stay after Brexit.

The pandemic has brought shortages into sharper focus, increasing staff shortages in certain areas as it's also led to a lot of people re-evaluating and changing careers, moving away from some undervalued sectors which will also drive wage inflation in those sectors

Somewhere in there I think you are accepting that Brexit has exacerbated all the problems. Whether all the nurses suddenly move to Orpington or not.

The simple point is that unless Brexit were to make things better overall, it cannot be claimed to have been necessary, and so it reduces to a perverse act of self-destruction.

There may be sunny uplands ahead. Who is to say we wouldn't have got to them without Brexit? And who can deny that the path to get to them is currently littered with obstacles and damage, all of our own making?

 

[Guy Fawkes]

Also, a 1% pay rise for someone on the minimum wage is rather less, in cash terms, than a 1% pay rise for someone on a salary of, say, £2 million.

But, yes, back to the topic.....

Society has for along time decided to work using percentages when agreeing wage rises. Unions involved in pay negotiations operate using percentages and never a fixed amount for everyone, so of course, over time the lowest paid will get left further and further behind and struggle more to make ends meet

If they negotiated along the lines of everyone getting the same figure increase (say £500 pa) instead, regardless of salary, then that pay gap wouldn't keep expanding as rapidly and the lower paid ending up with less spending power as a result of the pay rise as their higher paid colleagues, even though they are the ones that that raise is likely to benefit the most as they are more likely to need to rely on it to get by rather than it being extra disposable income

 

[Hamilton]

I’ve not read the whole thread, but I’m assuming that we all agree that the WTD and the DPCC are measures that help keep our roads safe. I’m assuming we want drivers who are competent and not knackered?

The costs we pass on to people to pass (rather like the extortionate fees we charge nurses to qualify) need to be addressed.

I love the way that we are assuming that the 20000 EU drivers, who we turned our backs on, are going to want to come back and drive our lorries for a few months, after which, they will be told to bugger off again.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Guy Fawkes]

Somewhere in there I think you are accepting that Brexit has exacerbated all the problems. Whether all the nurses suddenly move to Orpington or not.

The simple point is that unless Brexit were to make things better overall, it cannot be claimed to have been necessary, and so it reduces to a perverse act of self-destruction.

There may be sunny uplands ahead. Who is to say we wouldn't have got to them without Brexit? And who can deny that the path to get to them is currently littered with obstacles and damage, all of our own making?

Short term pain for long term gain?

Poorer members of our society who are in lower skilled jobs seeing higher wages as a result in the change to the amount of labour that can be supplied

Or are you only considering the situation of those who far fairly comfortably well off, and only how they are and will be affected by Brexit?

There are always going to be winners and losers with whatever the outcome was, and had we stayed, the losers would (a pretty strong case can be made in support for it) have been the poorer in our society who have seen the wage suppression in lower skilled jobs (and therefore are those most likely to have supported Brexit)

Those still arguing against it, (Brexit) claiming it to be a disaster are clearly not from that pool of low skilled labour this country has, whose views and voices they chose to ignore for a very long time before the referendum, seeing as the things they were saying didn't directly affect themselves so they didn't try to empathise, but were instead extremely dismissive, denouncing their views as racist, etc rather than spending any time trying to understand their side of things, how they were being affected and taking action to help them rather than just arrogantly mocking them

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I don’t see a single person in this thread blaming it ALL on Brexit. You have created a straw man.

The point is, Brexit isn’t necessarily causing each of these problems, but it IS exacerbating almost all of them. Would things be perfect without Brexit? Of course not. Would they be better? Of course they would.

I suspect we’re basically going to slowly slink back into closer alignment with the EU via the back door (minor one off u turns) over the coming months and years, whilst never acknowledging it as an issue.

Slinking back, with a much worse deal than we had prior, and with no influence. Genius move from all concerned.

The very same people who say it's not ALL about Brexit do go on and on and on and on and on about Brexit though ...

 

[Berty23]

Nobody has said it is not a factor. Equally, many people don’t think it is the biggest factor. There are structural problems in the industry and who can say where we would be without Brexit. The important thing is that the answer to that problem is irrelevant apart from to people such as you who keep using issues to re-open the debate. We need the Government to address the underlying issues in road haulage but instead they are going for your sticking plaster of more visas. You should be pleased.

I would actually be delighted if there were people admitting things were part of the problem rather than saying “oh look over there” - until there is a proper acknowledgement of factors then it will only ever be a sticking plaster. As with so much to do with brexit we were told it would be fine but as more issues crop up (that were predicted and dismissed as project fear) people drift into whataboutary. The problem is that brexit was sold to the people as the solution to all of the problems felt by society but in reality it was linked to government policy rather than the EU which means that things previously blamed on the EU can no longer be blamed on them and now we have a problem because people are slowly realising.

As per our other discussion. Our government made a decision not to increase storage of gas and develop our use of renewables, why? Because for the last six years they have had no band-width to deal with anything other than brexit.

So something sold to the public as a cure for their ills has actually made it worse but the only defence the government has is that they point at Labour and say “they will take us back to the EU”. And because people are entrenched in their view about brexit they will still vote for this government who will then apply more sticking plasters just to keep plates spinning. We are in a mess and without acknowledgment of the root cause of issues (clue it wasn’t being in the EU) we will never sort them. Until then brexit will continue to be a factor making things worse, whether people like to admit it or not.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

The very same people who say it's not ALL about Brexit do go on and on and on and on and on about Brexit though ...

Pot, kettle etc etc etc.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Somewhere in there I think you are accepting that Brexit has exacerbated all the problems. Whether all the nurses suddenly move to Orpington or not.

The simple point is that unless Brexit were to make things better overall, it cannot be claimed to have been necessary, and so it reduces to a perverse act of self-destruction.

There may be sunny uplands ahead. Who is to say we wouldn't have got to them without Brexit? And who can deny that the path to get to them is currently littered with obstacles and damage, all of our own making?

Whether or not Brexit has been a good thing is a different debate though. Different people weight issues differently. As mentioned, if this is a part of a societal adjustment to not relying on cheap foreign labour then it can be viewed as short term pain for long term gain. Simply using this subject as ammunition in extending the Brexit debate misses the big picture. Personally I would like the opportunity to vote for a left of centre Government that embraces Brexit but I am denied that opportunity. So we go round and round in circles with people constantly trying to justify a vote they made five years ago. The lorry driver topic is merely the latest.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Pot, kettle etc etc etc.

Many thanks for posting that article from the Lorry driver where he listed all the problems his industry has faced including cheap Eastern European Labour suppressing wages making it a less desirable occupation.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Short term pain for long term gain?

Poorer members of our society who are in lower skilled jobs seeing higher wages as a result in the change to the amount of labour that can be supplied

Or are you only considering the situation of those who far fairly comfortably well off, and only how they are and will be affected by Brexit?

There are always going to be winners and losers with whatever the outcome was, and had we stayed, the losers would (a pretty strong case can be made in support for it) have been the poorer in our society who have seen the wage suppression in lower skilled jobs (and therefore are those most likely to have supported Brexit)

Those still arguing against it, (Brexit) claiming it to be a disaster are clearly not from that pool of low skilled labour this country has, whose views and voices they chose to ignore for a very long time before the referendum, seeing as the things they were saying didn't directly affect themselves so they didn't try to empathise, but were instead extremely dismissive, denouncing their views as racist, etc rather than spending any time trying to understand their side of things, how they were being affected and taking action to help them rather than just arrogantly mocking them

Some fair points.

But being in favour of Brexit (as many of the poor are) doesn't mean that it will be to their benefit. And I don't think the poor voted leave because they thought it would improve their economic situation.

As with everything, time will tell. In the long run.....the country will survive, and people will look back and decide whether they feel Brexit was necessary or not. And none of us will know for sure.

My research relies on probabilities, risk, and obtaining best outcomes and pursuing the most plausible hypotheses. Brexit to me is like deciding that because Mothers' Milk is a good thing it may cure cancer, and injecting everone with 5 ml of it every day. Perhaps it won't cause harm, but at best it's a monumental waste of time. Done now, though. Move on and live the consequences

 

[nicko31]

The very same people who say it's not ALL about Brexit do go on and on and on and on and on about Brexit though ...

Has anyone said it is all down to Brexit? That said, if you vote in a government that imposes economic sanctions on itself right in the middle of a global pandemic there will be consequences, people will get hurt and people are losing their shirts. Just 47 years to go till we see Brexit benefits according to Mogg, we need to be patient.

BTW, interesting the way driver shortages and empty shelves are dominating the German election isn't it?