86 Points will be enough

[severnside gull]

When you consider that after the Leeds' defeat we were all looking apprehensively over our shoulders the much maligned international break couldn't have been better timed. Three wins in a week without ever looking near our best is exceptional. It's no longer about points for promotion but rather points for the Championship. What a turnaround!!!!!

 

[warmleyseagull]

Indeed. Revised my spreadsheet to use most recent 5 as the form guide. We're that late in the season, and with enough variation in form, that it makes sense to use the shorter period.

I'm now comparing us vs Hudds and us vs Newcastle for the run home.

Both Hudds and Newcastle, on full-season results, have harder opponents than us remaining:

(Average season ppg for remaining opponents)
Newcastle - 1.43ppg
Huddersfield - 1.40ppg
Brighton - 1.23ppg

But when you look at last 5 games form, it gets topped on its head:

(Average last-5 ppg for remaining opponents)
Brighton - 1.76ppg
Huddersfield - 1.60ppg
Newcastle - 1.13ppg

On paper, the tough games for each team look like:

Brighton - Wolves (A), Villa (A).
Huddersfield - Derby (A), Wolves (A)
Newcastle - Cardiff (A)

I think Huddersfield aren't going to put us under any pressure from here. They'll drop points somewhere, and we should easily pick up the points we need to see them off.

The juicy thing to watch now is the title chase. At the moment, the advantage is ours, but to me it looks like Newcastle have the easier games remaining. 3 at home, and generally against opponents who aren't hitting peak form (Preston and Cardiff with 8 points from 5, compared to us having Wolves with 12, Bristol with 9, and Villa with a chunky 13).

Be prepared for a rollercoaster ride over 5 games, I reckon - prospects are good for lead position to change a couple more times before we get to the end. Villa on the last day could be the title decided, and looks like it'll be tough to negotiate.

I dont think you can judge much from a period as short as five games, particularly on a comparative basis, because some of the teams each has to play will have played each other, and therefore 3-4 points must 'go missing' when you calculate ppg (eg Cardiff have to play Newcastle and Huddersfield. In their last 5 games Cardiff have played Barnsley, Ipswich, Wolves & Brum, two of whom feature in the fixture list for Udders & Toon, and one for Albion). The important point surely is that Albion have two very winnable home games; win those plus one point from three away games makes promotion a mathematical certainty. Two wins makes a practical certainty. No need to over complicate...

 

[perseus]

Any away game is tough unless you are playing Rotherham.

So Newcastle at Ipswich won't be easy either. That could very easily end in a draw.

Ipswich have won very home game they have scored first in. So had we before Newcastle.

I don't think Newcastle are a complete team with Hayden injured: strengths and weaknesses. Gayle may miss the Leeds game a well.

With Huddersfield with Hogg back, they could win every game! Blips seem to correlate with injuries.

 

[mejonaNO12 aka riskit]

I'm only JUST willing to move up to "we have put ourselves in a good position" in terms of the excitement-o-meter

I was still referring this season as "a good start" up to March.

 

[perseus]

I think we will be able to open up and play some football when we reach 90 pts. ASAP for me.

http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-championship/

 

[martin tyler]

Ipswich have won very home game they have scored first in. So had we before Newcastle.

I don't think Newcastle are a complete team with Hayden injured: strengths and weaknesses. Gayle may miss the Leeds game a well.

With Huddersfield with Hogg back, they could win every game! Blips seem to correlate with injuries.

Same Hogg that played v Forest.
There not winning every game

 

[Betfair Bozo]

Ipswich have won very home game they have scored first in. So had we before Newcastle.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/37736461

 

[dazzer6666]

I just want this to be kept simple now - Hudds to lose their next game, and us to win, then we're done and dusted and can concentrate on the title (yes I know not done and dusted 'mathematically', but close enough to start properly celebrating)

 

[Weststander]

Ipswich have won very home game they have scored first in. So had we before Newcastle.

I don't think Newcastle are a complete team with Hayden injured: strengths and weaknesses. Gayle may miss the Leeds game a well.

With Huddersfield with Hogg back, they could win every game! Blips seem to correlate with injuries.

Hudd won't win every game. It would be very unlikely for any Championship to do that, but in addition their play at Forest was shocking from start to finish.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

I just want this to be kept simple now - Hudds to lose their next game, and us to win, then we're done and dusted and can concentrate on the title (yes I know not done and dusted 'mathematically', but close enough to start properly celebrating)

I think we'll draw at Wolves.

 

[HantsSeagull]

You might want to retract that

really? The permutations are too numerous for my small brain - but in order for 86 (ie what we have now) to be enough, Hudders would have to lose both of their next two games by which time I fully expect us to have improved our points tally anyway. cant see them imploding that badly. If we win friday and they lose then 89 points (barring a goal difference miracle) does it but not 86.

happy to be corrected

 

[durrington gull]

Take a pt at Wolves and hopefully seal promotion at home

 

[BensGrandad]

I think we'll draw at Wolves.

We usually do well at Molyneaux so am going for a win. Followed by a Huddersfield draw or possibly a win so down to Monday and we will go all guns blazing for victory.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

We usually do well at Molyneaux so am going for a win. Followed by a Huddersfield draw or possibly a win so down to Monday and we will go all guns blazing for victory.

4 out of 5 of our last meetings at Molineux have been draws.

 

[stss30]

4 out of 5 of our last meetings at Molineux have been draws.

I do remember a few of those games being marred by red cards though.

 

[Wardy's twin]

You're not counting Norwich away as a tough game for us?

i was thinking exactly the same...
CH would have a very big smile on his face if we pip Newcastle (and deservedly so).

 

[Goring-by-Seagull]

I do remember a few of those games being marred by red cards though.

Yes, was it last season there we played nearly the entire second half against 10 men? And missed a penalty? Finished 0-0 I think, was costly come the end of the season!

 

[GT49er]

Yes, two wins and a draw mathematically seals it. But two wins is all we need in the real world, unless the world gets turned upside down.

I know it's mathematically possible for Hudds to beat us on GD, but it's not realistic. We're 30 to the good on them, with 11 games to play between us. Worst case scenario is that we lose all 5, and Hudds win 4 and lose 2 (because draws don't help them). If we lost all five by a score of 3-0 our GD would drop from +34 to +19. Hudds then need to gain 16; if their two losses are 1-0, that makes 18 needed from the 4 wins (two 5-0 and two 4-0).

The other worst case is Hudds win all 6 of their remaining games, while we win 2 and lose 3. Assume the two we win are 1-0, and the three we lose are 5-0. That leaves us with a 21 GD at season end. Hudds, from their 6 games, would need to gain 18 goals - so 3-0 for all six games.

Is it mathematically possible for Hudds to overtake our GD? Yes. Is it plausible for Hudds to even get close to our GD? No way.

GD is not going to be relevant in deciding who gets auto, other than if Hudds can tie either us or Newcastle then Hudds will miss out on GD same as we did last year.

So what you are saying is that you agree with me that two wins and a draw make us mathematically certain to go up, and that just two wins makes it almost certain (but with a fantastically unlikely chance that Huddersfield could still finish ahead of us on GD)? Just to make it clear, like.............

 

[MattBackHome]

Here (for me) are the three most likely outcomes, all of which are predicated on how we perform over the next two games:

1) We match Huddersfield's results over the next two games then simply avoiding defeat at Norwich sees us promoted.

2) We do worse than the Terriers over the next two games, and are promoted in absentia after one of their 3 games in 7 days

3) We gain more points than them and head to Norwich knowing that we will be in the Premier League next year.

Basically I reckon Norwich (either before or after the game) is when the 'confirmed' celebrations will commence.

 

[dazzer6666]

We usually do well at Molyneaux so am going for a win. Followed by a Huddersfield draw or possibly a win so down to Monday and we will go all guns blazing for victory.

It won't be followed by a Hudds draw or win because we're playing after them on Friday. If they lose, a win could see us (effectively) up on Friday.